We spend so much time during the run-up to the release of the final College Football Playoff Rankings arguing about strength of schedule and quality wins. The imbalance across the modern mega-conferences and the small sample size of college football schedules leave much up for interpretation. A team can look great one week and then expose a myriad of red flags the next. Teams can skate by with close calls, allowing a win count to mask deeper issues as it climbs the rankings.
But now we’re here with the CFP set to kick off its first 12-team bracket — and there is no place to hide. Every team in the field either contended for or won its conference championship, so winning the CFP National Championship will require multiple wins against great teams.
What it won’t require is multiple wins against perfect teams, because while every team in the field is great, they all have flaws.
Heavyweight bouts in college football are often decided in the margins. Whichever team can successfully identify and exploit the other’s weakness gains leverage in an otherwise toss-up scenario. The same can be said for teams that spend the playoff preparation time addressing their own issues with the extra practices. Any opportunity for an edge becomes an X-factor in these matchups.
Below we’ve identified one flaw for each CFP team, based on its regular season showing. If these issues are masked or addressed in the CFP, they could be the key to a championship run. But if opponents use these flaws to gain a leg up, they could prove fatal for championship hopes.
Flaw: Third quarters
The Ducks had offensive line issues early as the group worked through injuries and shuffled through rotations, and Dillon Gabriel had a couple of hiccups as he settled into a new offense. But for most of the second half of the season, the Ducks have looked the part of the unanimous No. 1 team in the country with a well-rounded roster that’s been producing and performing at a high level.
Except in third quarters.
Oregon ranks No. 10 nationally in first-quarter scoring, No. 1 in second-quarter scoring, No. 10 in first-half scoring, and No. 15 in fourth-quarter scoring. But for those 15 minutes coming out of the locker room after halftime? Oregon comes in at No. 99, scoring just 4.3 points per game.
|
Oregon scoring by quarter |
PPG |
FBS rank |
|
First quarter |
8.6 |
10th |
|
Second quarter |
14.5 |
1st |
|
Third quarter |
4.3 |
99th |
|
Fourth quarter |
9.6 |
15th |
There’s not an obvious explanation, but it’s something the Oregon staff has taken note of in their self-scouting process. A full, fair analysis would show that Oregon’s defense is No. 4 in third-quarter points allowed per game (2.2), so it’s not like opponents are storming back into games as a result of this strange drop-off. But it is something to take note of when Oregon is squaring off in the biggest games of the season, because winning the third quarter could make the difference between putting an opponent away and losing a shot at a national title.
Flaw: Slow starts
We are nitpicking here with the teams at the top because the strengths clearly outweigh the weaknesses, but one nasty habit from Georgia’s path through a brutal schedule has been some slow starts on offense. Georgia is No. 86 in the country in first-half scoring, averaging 11.8 points per game before halftime on the season. The defense mostly does a good job keeping the opponent limited as well, but the task was too tall in both of the Bulldogs’ losses (at Alabama, at Ole Miss), and the inability to trade scores early contributed to the defeats.
How do Georgia’s slow starts compare to the rest of the CFP field? Not only is Georgia last in first-half scoring among the 12 CFP teams, it’s nearly a touchdown per game worse than everyone else. The Bulldogs are almost two touchdowns worse than Oregon, the nation’s best first-half scoring team at 23.1 points per game. In fact, the other 11 CFP teams all rank inside the top 19 nationally in first-half scoring average: Oregon (1), Boise State (3), Notre Dame (6), Indiana (7), Arizona State (8), Clemson (9), Texas (10), SMU (11), Ohio State (15), Tennessee (18), and Penn State (19). So a team that has a first-half scoring average on par with Louisiana Tech or Georgia State, will be in a playoff matchup against one of the best first-half scoring teams in the country. We’ve seen the Bulldogs recover from slow starts to secure wins, but pulling that off against the best teams in the country multiple times over seems unlikely.
(3) Boise State
Flaw: Pass defense
Every one of Boise State’s games were heavily influenced by the presence of generational running back Ashton Jeanty. The way teams game-planned to play the Broncos and the game scripts that unfolded on a week-to-week basis were all based around his unique talent and production. So when we say that Boise State’s pass defense is a weaknesses or a flaw, that’s acknowledging that most teams had to throw the ball all over the yard just to try and keep up with what Jeanty was doing on offense. Boise State’s opponents threw the ball an average of 32.8 times per game, which is above-average nationally and contributed to a stat profile that isn’t isn’t spectacular. Boise State ranks No. 88 nationally in passer rating defense (137.3), No. 86 in yards per attempt allowed (7.5) and No. 95 with 21 passing touchdowns allowed on the season.
A lot of those issues were offset by a defensive front that was among the nation’s best at getting to the quarterback. The Broncos ranked No. 2 in the country with 51 sacks on the season, and that includes six-sack performances in both wins against UNLV and eight sacks in the win against Washington State. When Boise needed its defense to step up in the biggest games of the season, its front was able to feast. But the overall production on the back end is undeniably a step back from the standard set by the rest of the team. When we consider potential matchups against Penn State or SMU, either one offers a quarterback and a passing attack that could take advantage of this flaw should be first be able to block the Broncos up front.
(4) Arizona State
Flaw: Special teams
A big narrative coming into the Big 12 title game was that the absence of Jordyn Tyson, the Sun Devils’ 1,000-yard receiver who carried so much of the responsibility and production in the passing game. Well not only did Cam Skattebo rip off a couple explosive plays during his MVP performance but quarterback Sam Leavitt and the rest of the pass catchers on the team elevated their level of play with some big-time plays, including two scores from Xavier Guillory.
So the focus comes back to whether Arizona State can finish drives, an issue that plagued the team all year.
The Sun Devils rank No. 133 nationally in field goal percentage (52.9%) and have made just nine field goals all year. The struggles have changed the way that Arizona State has to approach those scenarios and contributed to the offense ranking No. 110 in red zone conversion on the season. Even the advanced numbers can’t get over the kicking woes, slotting Arizona State at No. 115 nationally in special teams EPA, per TruMedia, and a special teams rating of No. 131 in Bill Connelly’s SP+. The combination of Leavitt’s craftiness and Skattebo’s playmaking have allowed Arizona State to be efficient when the field gets small and turn those late-season drives into touchdowns. The Sun Devils had three games with zero field goal attempts since the start of October. It will be interesting to see if Kenny Dillingham chooses to kick field goals or go for it on fourth down when kicking, on average, has been about a coin-flip proposition for the team.
(5) Texas
Flaw: Red zone offense
The Texas offense has rolled up 445.4 yards per game on the season (No. 18 in FBS) and ranks inside the top 25 in scoring averaging 33.6 points per game. The Longhorns have a bevy of talented skill position players, a veteran quarterback and a coach in Steve Sarkisian who has been known to scheme up explosive plays for his best players. Yet the Texas offense also carries a reputation for leaving money on the table. As we turn our attention to the playoff the ability to finish drives with touchdowns has to be a top concern in Austin.
The Longhorns do a great job of moving the ball into scoring position, but when the field gets small the success rate drops off a cliff. Texas is No. 8 in the country in red zone attempts on the season, but their red zone conversion percentage (81.4%) ranks 93rd. Sometimes, like in the 34-3 win against rival Oklahoma in Dallas, the red zone failures don’t impact the ultimate result as much. Texas had six red zone opportunities in that win but walked away with only two touchdowns and two field goals. But the caliber of opponents that Texas will face in the CFP is a notable step up from where the Sooners were in 2024. Look no further than the overtime loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Texas had three red zone attempts and came away with just six points on two field goals. It’s not hard to see how that hurts a team’s chances in a 3-point overtime loss.
(6) Penn State
Flaw: Reliance on Tyler Warren
We are getting dangerously close to the job interview trope of “my greatest weakness is my greatest strength” but Penn State really doesn’t have a ton of flaws! However, it should be noted that the Nittany Lions’ reliance on star tight end Tyler Warren does present a concern if for some reason he is neutralized. Warren logged 88 receptions on the year while no other pass catcher has more than 40, and he’s got 1,062 receiving yards while the team’s second-leading receiver, Harrison Wallace, has 638 receiving yards.
To be fair, teams have known all season that facing Penn State means facing one of the best tight ends in the country and still have not been able to take him out of the game. SMU, Georgia or any other potential playoff opponent will try to make every pass catcher not named Tyler Warren beat them and so the question for Penn State is whether those players are up to the challenge. Wallace has served as a nice compliment to Warren throughout the season, but if you’re looking for an x-factor it could be speedy wide receiver Omari Evans. It might only take a couple of receptions for Evans to change a game thanks to his big-play ability. That kind of performance could tilt a defense enough to make Penn State extremely difficult to stop.
(7) Notre Dame
Flaw: Third-down conversions
Similar to Penn State, we have a situation where the great flaw might actually reveal more about the strength of Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish rank No. 88 in FBS in third conversion rate (38.3%). In part, that has come because of longer third down distances. The stellar ground game — which includes the dual-threat ability of quarterback Riley Leonard — makes the Irish hard to stop in third-and-manageable situations, but the more traditional drop-back passing attack in a third-and-long situation is far from the team’s strength.
But here’s the issue: Notre Dame doesn’t even face third down that often. In fact, the team ranks dead last in the FBS in third down attempts on the season (128). And to carry that kind of statistic while also having the nation’s third-best scoring average (39.3 points per game) shows you that this isn’t a team that is getting a lead and playing it safe. The Fighting Irish absolutely motor through opponents on early downs with big chunk gains that keep defenses on their heels, preventing even the occurrence of a third down challenge. So while statistically third down offense is a weakness that could potentially be exploited by a CFP opponent, it’s been difficult to even force the Fighting Irish into that scenario this season.
(8) Ohio State
Flaw: Offensive line
Ohio State’s offensive line has been dealing with significant injury issues for much of the season. And while some of those long-term injuries occurred a while ago, the effects are still felt for a group that has struggled against good defensive fronts. Not only are the Buckeyes missing future NFL talent, but any twist, tweak or roll-up scenario forces the Buckeyes to go deeper in the depth chart at a position that is so key to what Ohio State wants to do on offense.
Like pretty much any quarterback, Will Howard is better when he’s not dealing with significant pressure. And the ability to pop Quinshon Judkins or Treveyon Henderson for an explosive play in the run game requires an a good push at the line of scrimmage. Ohio State did an excellent job of winning the hard yards in the road win at Penn State and controlled the game in the second half against Iowa, but a close win over Nebraska and loss to Michigan set off red flags. The Buckeyes have had time to try and get that group as healthy as possible, and I expect Chip Kelly will have some game-plan adjustments to put them in a position to be successful, but if Ohio State can’t win up front it’s going to find it very difficult to go on a redemption run in the playoff.
(9) Tennessee
Flaw: Passing attack
I know this sounds crazy for a team that is coached by Josh Heupel and quarterbacked by a player with the talent of Nico Iamaleava, but Tennessee did not ride a lethal passing attack to the CFP. Sure, the Vols still spread the field with wide receivers close enough to spit on the sideline. And yes, they do utilize an up-tempo attack. But throwing the football has not been a strength in 2024. It doesn’t show up as a weakness every week, but when we consider the raised level of competition and the scenarios that Tennessee could face against the likes of Ohio State or Oregon, it’s going to be imperative that the passing game is effective.
On the season, Tennessee ranks outside the top 50 in passing yards per game but does have improved numbers on a per-play basis ranking No. 24 in passer rating, No. 27 in yards per attempt (8.1) and No. 32 in completion percentage. But among CFP teams, Tennessee is last in offensive EPA per snap (No. 48 nationally) and also last among playoff teams in total pass EPA per game (No. 54 in the country).
Some of this is on the performance of the wide receivers, and some of it falls on Nico Iamaleava and his play during a campaign that admittedly included some bumps and bruises on the injury front. But for as effective as the running game is with Dylan Sampson and as talented as Iamaleava is, the Vols probably need to see the passing attack take a step forward to make a run in the playoff.
(10) Indiana
Flaw: Early down success against elite competition
Indiana’s season-long body of work is stellar. In going 11-1 in 2024, the Hoosiers finished the regular season with the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense (43.3 points per game), the No. 6 scoring defense (14.7 points per game allowed) and the best scoring margin in the country — beating opponents by an average of 28.7 points per game.
So to find the flaw we really have to dig deep, and it’s an issue that really only appeared a couple times. When Indiana was facing its toughest competition, the offense struggled to move the football in part because of its lack of success on early downs. In the second half of the 5-point win against Michigan and throughout the 23-point loss to Ohio State, the Hoosiers frequently found themselves facing difficult third-and-long scenarios in part because of their inability to move the football on early downs. The reasons were plentiful, and fans certainly blamed everything from play-calling to poor execution (dropped passes, for example), but the ultimate result was an inability to sustain drives when the team needed it most. Thankfully for their playoff hopes, Indiana was able to hold on to win against Michigan but the 7-5 Wolverines are definitely a step down from the level of the playoff participants, which include the Ohio State team that made the Hoosiers pay for their lack of early down success.
(11) SMU
Flaw: Turnovers
We spent a lot of time looking at season-long ranks and statistics, so let’s acknowledge there’s a huge outlier skewing SMU’s turnover numbers. The Mustangs had three fumbles (all lost) and Kevin Jennings threw three interceptions in a 28-27 win at Duke on Oct. 26. No FBS team had won a game with a minus-6 turnover margin since 2011. SMU broke that streak thanks to some missed Duke field goals, including a potential game-winner that was blocked.
But we can’t throw that game out because turnovers have been a problem all year, particularly away from home. The Mustangs have turned the ball over a total of 14 times across six games in road/neutral environments this season, with seven interceptions and seven lost fumbles. That includes two very costly turnovers in the ACC Championship Game loss to Clemson (one fumble, one interception) and does not include the three turnovers committed in the early season loss to BYU.
This is significant because Penn State will be the most difficult road environment that SMU has played in all season. If they have committed 14 turnovers in six games away from Dallas, probabilities suggest there will be at least one coming on Saturday against the Nittany Lions. Throw in the wintry conditions and a feisty defense that feasts on opposing quarterbacks, and ball security will be one of the biggest x-factors for SMU’s playoff debut.
(12) Clemson
Flaw: Run defense
While the many associate Clemson’s national title runs with quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence, the foundation of those runs was always the Tigers’ ability to impact the game on defense. With future pros up and down the defensive line and game-changers in the back seven, Clemson matched its explosive offense with defensive excellence.
And that’s where we see a potential flaw for Clemson heading into the playoff, specifically with their run defense. The Tigers rank No. 90 in the country with 4.56 yards per carry allowed and No. 94 in defensive run EPA, per TruMedia. Louisville moved the ball effectively on the ground in its stunning win over Clemson in Death Valley earlier this season, and South Caroline did so as well though the Gamecocks couldn’t convert those yards into points at the same clip. Texas may not have the most dynamic rushing attack, but the Longhorns are physical and effective enough to lean on that ground game to defend a lead if Clemson is unable to get stops.
