2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Frank Stampfl’s Busts 2.0 features big names in Ronald Acuña, Oneil Cruz

Can you feel it? March is here. Spring is approaching. And that can only mean one thing… baseball is back! I love this time of year. What I don’t love is choosing busts in Fantasy Baseball. The unfortunate reality is there will always be players that underperform expectations. Knowing who to avoid in drafts is almost as important as knowing who to target. 

What you’ll learn quickly from the names below is that, apparently, I hate fun. I understand why these players are being drafted so high according to Fantasypros’ average draft position. They’re fun and exciting! Unfortunately, they also come with risk factors. In many of the mock drafts I’ve done to this point, I consistently find myself avoiding these players at their going cost. Before we get into it, here’s a link to my Busts 1.0, which features 10 other players I’m avoiding this season.

Ronald Acuña, OF, Braves

Let’s just rip the band-aid off and get this one out of the way. When Ronald Acuña is healthy and at his best, he’s one of the top three players in all of baseball, maybe even the best. Back in 2023, he broke Fantasy Baseball, hitting .337 with 41 homers, 149 runs, 106 RBI, and 73 steals. That was real life, not a video game. 2024 was much different. Acuña dealt with right knee soreness in spring training last year. Once the regular season started, he looked like a shell of his MVP self, hitting just .250 with four homers and 16 steals in the first 49 games. Then, in late May, disaster struck. Acuña tore the ACL in his left knee, putting his early 2025 status in doubt.

And that’s where we stand. Acuña is currently an early third-round pick in Fantasy Baseball drafts despite tearing the ACL in both of his knees. There are just so many questions. When will he return? It sounds like he’ll be back in May, assuming there are no setbacks. Will Acuña return to MVP form? Well, he certainly wasn’t that player the last time we saw him in 2024. He also wasn’t that MVP-caliber player back in 2022, the last time he was returning from a torn ACL in his opposite knee. Will he run as much? I have no idea! Acuña’s only 27 years old so, in theory, he’s in his physical prime. With that said, I’d imagine tearing the ACL in both of your knees takes a toll on your body. I understand the risks associated with fading a player of this caliber. Acuña could be the best player in Fantasy from May 1 on. He could also be a shell of himself, could take time to shake the rust off, and might not be as aggressive on the base paths. You get the idea. I like to play it safe early on in my drafts. That won’t include Ronald Acuña.

Like I said, I hate fun. Oneil Cruz is still loaded with tools and massive upside. We just haven’t seen that upside yet. Cruz is coming off a solid season where he hit .259 with 21 homers and 22 steals. He was one of 19 players to go 20-20 last season. According to the Fangraphs player rater, Cruz finished as the 78th overall player in 12-team Roto leagues. In H2H points, Cruz averaged 2.7 Fantasy points per game, tied for 13th at the position. It’s all fine, just doesn’t feel like a player who should be drafted in the top 50 picks. When drafting Cruz as a fourth or fifth-round pick in Fantasy drafts, you need him to improve substantially to pay off that price tag. I’m not entirely sure that happens.

Cruz still has some pretty big flaws in his game. First off he has really bad plate discipline. Cruz posted a 30% strikeout rate last season. That came with a 78% zone contact rate and a 15% swinging strike rate; both much worse than the league average! Next up, he still can’t hit lefties. Last season Cruz hit just .224 with a .686 OPS against left-handed pitching. In his career, Cruz has a 40% strikeout rate against southpaws. Lastly, he still puts the ball on the ground too often to maximize his raw power. Cruz posted a 48% ground ball rate last season. In order to reach his power potential, he has to raise the launch angle and put more balls in the air. Like Acuña, Cruz could make me look completely foolish for including him on this list. I just prefer to take my upside shots on safer profiles or players going later in drafts.

Josh Naylor is coming off an awesome season where he finished as a Top-50 player in Roto while averaging 3.1 Fantasy points per game. We saw a big jump in his power production, plus he finally managed to stay healthy. Last year was the first time Naylor played more than 122 games in a season. As for the power, the Guardians made changes to Progressive Field last offseason, which really helped left-handed sluggers. According to Baseball Savant, Progressive Field ranked fifth in home run park factor for lefties. That’s compared to dead last in 2023. I’d say the changes helped! Unfortunately, Naylor doesn’t call Progressive Field home anymore.

Naylor was traded to the Diamondbacks this offseason. On one hand, they just led baseball in runs scored. On the other, Chase Field ranks dead last in home run park factor for lefties over the past three years. On top of that, Naylor had big home/road splits last season (.852 OPS at home, .699 on the road). Will he be the same power hitter in Arizona? I’m not so sure. His power also dropped off quite a bit as the season went on. Naylor’s slugging dropped from .491 in the first half to .406 in the second half. All of his quality of contact metrics came down, too. I think Naylor is a solid player but it feels like you’re paying for a career year plus you have to bet on him to stay healthy again. I don’t think he’ll sink your team but he just feels overvalued as a Top-75 pick.

Luis Castillo has been a mainstay in Fantasy rotations for almost a decade now. He was still solid last season but, at 32 years old, it looks like the decline has officially started. The first thing that stands out is the strikeouts. Castillo’s strikeout percentage dropped from 27% in 2023 to 24% last season. It’s not a huge drop, but even more worrisome is his swinging strike rate. That dropped from 14.7% all the way down to 11.8%. Digging a little deeper, his fastball has been one of the main culprits over the past few years. Since being traded to the Mariners back in 2022, fastball whiffs have been a huge part of Castillo’s success. As you can see below, his fastball has taken a step back.

• Castillo’s four-seam fastball in 2022- 97.1 MPH, 33.9% whiff rate
• Castillo’s four-seam fastball in 2023- 96.3 MPH, 32.9% whiff rate
• Castillo’s four-seam fastball in 2024- 95.6 MPH, 27.4% whiff rate

As you can see the velocity and whiff rate on his fastball are declining. It’s still a very strong whiff rate for a fastball, but the velocity drop does worry me a bit. Castillo also got hit hard by lefties last season, allowing a .275 batting average with an .846 OPS. It’s no surprise but his changeup — the weapon he uses to neutralize lefties — also took a step back. Do you see what I’m getting at here? Castillo is in decline and the metrics seem to back that up. Perhaps it’s a graceful decline that allows him to post a repeat of 2024. Another possibility is that he posts an ERA closer to 4.00, which the underlying numbers say he deserved. Like Naylor, I don’t think Castillo will sink your team. I just think he’s overvalued as a Top-90 pick.

Roki Sasaki, SP, LAD

Say it with me, everybody: “FRANK HATES FUN!” This is another tough one because I am so excited to watch Roki Sasaki pitch. We got a glimpse in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. Now we get the real thing. In his four professional seasons in Japan, Sasaki posted a 2.02 ERA, and 0.88 WHIP with 524 strikeouts over 414.2 innings. Sasaki throws incredibly hard and is armed with an 80-grade splitter. Those two pitches have Sasaki ranked as the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball entering the 2025 season. The keyword there is prospect. Sasaki is still just 23 years old and needs more development. He’s going to be learning on the job with the Dodgers this season.

Speaking of the Dodgers, I’m not sure if you’ve heard but they’re really, really good. They’re so good and so deep that they plan to use a six-man rotation this season. As a result, Dodgers pitchers likely won’t provide much volume. Most projection systems on Fangraphs have Sasaki projected for 130-140 innings this season. Sasaki also dealt with an arm injury last year, which caused his fastball velocity to drop from 98.9 in 2023 dow not 96.9 last season. So you’re telling me there are volume concerns with the Dodgers and he’s an injury risk? Sasaki’s ADP is 105.3 as the SP31 off the board. That means you need him to be better than established pitchers like Zac Gallen, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Justin Steele right away. It all just feels like too much, too soon. I understand the excitement but I feel the hype has overinflated Sasaki’s ADP.