The cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security payments in 2026 could increase by 2.6 percent, according to a new estimate based on federal inflation data released on Tuesday for the month of June.
“With only three months remaining until the next COLA announcement, TSCL’s model predicts that the COLA will be only 0.1 percentage points higher than the 2025 COLA of 2.5 percent,” the group said in a statement.
The White House rebutted claims that the inflation report showed a negative impact from tariffs, since the cost of new cars fell despite the 25 percent tariffs on autos and 50 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum. The administration also noted that despite the June bump in apparel prices, clothing prices are still cheaper than three months ago.
He referred to the benchmark interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, which are currently between 4.25 and 4.50 percent. For months, Trump has called on the Fed and its Chairman Jerome Powell to lower rates, while signaling at times he could move to fire Powell.
Earlier this year, Trump imposed sweeping duties of 10 percent on all imports plus 30 percent on goods from China. Last week the president threatened to hit the European Union with a new 30 percent tariff starting on Aug. 1.
“The Big Beautiful Bill is a good start on providing financial relief for American seniors. The next priority should be providing support for the estimated 7.3 million American seniors who are living on less than $1,000 per month, which is below the federal poverty line,” said Senior Citizens League Executive Director Shannon Benton in a statement Tuesday, adding that about 39 percent of beneficiaries depend on Social Security payments for all of their income.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
