Key events
Lisa O’Carroll
Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, has called for “more flexibility” from Brussels in relation to targets for the transition to electric vehicles – siding with German car manufacturers and opening up a divide with other European carmakers who want to stick to the deadline for phasing out combustion engines.
The bosses of Volvo and Polestar were among 150 car chiefs who wrote to the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen on Monday urging her to maintain the 2035 target for cars and vans and arguing that any change would hand an advantage to Chinese rivals.
Michael Lohscheller, Polestar’s chief executive, said in a statement:
Weakening targets now would send a signal that Europe can be talked out of its own commitments. That would not only harm the climate. It would harm Europe’s ability to compete.
But on Tuesday, the German chancellor weighed in on Volkswagen’s and Mercedes-Benz’s side, calling for more regulatory flexibility from the EU. He threw his weight behind the German auto industry’s push to soften rules that would effectively ban sales of new petrol vehicles in 10 years’ time.
“We are of course committed to the transition to e-mobility,” the conservative leader told the opening of a motor show in Munich, but added that “we need smart, reliable and flexible European regulation”.
Merz stopped short of calling for the 2035 deadline for selling only emission-free vehicles to be delayed or scrapped.
Polestar says it would be wrong to let the target date slip saying it would “punish the frontrunners and benefit those” like Volkswagen and Mercedes Benz who lagged behind.
Merz reiterated his coalition government’s support for “technology openness,” a reference to the auto sector’s desire for hybrid and other vehicles to be exempted from the rules.
We need smart, reliable, flexible European regulation. One-sided political commitments to specific technologies are the wrong economic policy path, and not just for this sector.
Helena Horton
Here is Prof Dieter Helm’s view on water minister Emma Hardy’s remarks.
Helm, professor of economic policy at the University of Oxford, told the Efra committee that “it would be a disaster” if a special administration was only used in extremis for Thames Water.
Let’s imagine that the government thinks that Thames should go into a SAR. I am not close to the legal bits, though the government did toughen up the SAR regime rules generally recently. It can apply to the court according to the below. Imagine Thames decided to resist. Really? In practice an application in itself would trigger practically the outcome. And then there is the relationship between Ofwat and the government.
As to what constitutes a serious breach etc, imagine trying to argue that Thames had not in fact done so…pretty difficult in practice I guess, given all the evidence of its failings.
Finally – and this is the really important bit – if the criteria are as demanding as the minister suggests, a SAR would only be used in extremis and by then it might be very hard to guarantee the continuity of services which is the reason a SAR is deliberately “special”. It would be a disaster.
SARs were designed to deal with failures long before the company and its performance goes over a cliff… If they can’t then there needs to be a new Utilities Failures Act to put a proper regime in place as a matter of urgency.
UK water minister: Thames Water has ‘not met threshold’ for special administration
Helena Horton
More from the UK’s water minister Emma Hardy.
She told MPs on the environment, food and rural affairs committee that beleaguered water company Thames Water has “not met the threshold” for special administration and suggested it would not do so until taps run dry.
Thames is racing to secure funding to avoid temporary nationalisation and recently secured a controversial, high-interest, £3bn loan to stave off collapse. The company recently secured a payment plan with the industry regulator for fines it owes worth £123m.
The company has been trying to raise money for a turnaround plan for the past year, after building up a net debt pile worth £17.7bn under successive private owners.
Hardy claimed to the committee that it is not the government’s decision whether a company goes into SAR. She said:
There is a mistaken belief that it’s the government or secretary of state’s decision to take a company into special administration.
The government doesn’t put companies into SAR, the court does.
A water company goes into special administration when either the secretary of state applies to the court and makes the case for the water company to enter SAR, or if the water company says it can no longer operate and needs to go into SAR.
Hardy added:
[Thames] hasn’t met the threshold for going into special administration
It has to be a serious breach of its principle statutory duties. This would mean fundamentally water doesn’t come out of the taps, toilets don’t flush.
Under further questioning she added that SAR can also be met when the company does not meet performance targets set by Ofwat, the regulator. Hardy added:
The situation as it is at the current moment is that Thames water has not met the threshold.
Asked by the committee if that was formal advice she’s been given she said “yes”, adding:
Ofwat is talking to the company, the company is still solvent, it hasnt met the threshold for insolvency, and it hasn’t met the threshold for performance.
Helena Dollimore, Efra committee member, said in response “the regulator is pretty useless, it does not want to bark, let alone bite.”
Ministers appear to be getting ready to place the company into SAR, and have appointed FTI Consulting as potential administrators.
Hardy confirmed the appointment, adding:
It is absolutely right that we should be prepared for everything.
I don’t want to be one of those ministers that is caught on the hop so we have made sure we have got everything ready.
Peter Kyle, the ‘tech bro’ minister charged with kickstarting UK growth
We’ve looked at the UK’s new business minister, Peter Kyle, whose trip to China today coincides with his birthday.
When Peter Kyle begins a 7,000-mile flight from Washington to Beijing this week, Britain’s new business secretary could reflect on how far he has already come.
Kyle struggled at school due to dyslexia and left, in his own words, “without any usable” qualifications. He made it to university in his 20s after several failed attempts.
Now, days after accepting his second ministerial brief in the reshuffle triggered by Angela Rayner’s resignation, Kyle is leading talks with White House officials about the US-UK technology partnership. With no time to celebrate his 55th birthday on Tuesday, the business secretary will then jet off for tentative and delicate discussions with China about deeper economic cooperation.
The missions to the world’s two largest economies are intended to help kickstart what Kyle told business leaders last week would be a “relentless” pursuit of the growth that has so far eluded Labour.
Those who have worked with Kyle, who was elected in 2015 as the MP for Hove in East Sussex, near where he grew up, say he will bring a sharp intellect and strong worth ethic to the role. “He’s a very well-liked and hard-working guy,” said Theo Bertram, director of the Social Market Foundation thinktank and a former adviser to Tony Blair.
But in the year Kyle has spent as the minister for science and innovation, he has faced questions about whether he is far too close to big tech, in particular in the burgeoning artificial intelligence industry.
In the 1980s and 1990s, Kyle was mentored by the late Anita Roddick when he worked in the head office of her Body Shop empire. These days, he turns for advice not to a human mentor but to AI, a technology he has said is just a few years from matching – and even outstripping – human capability.
Water minister: English water companies could transition to not-for-profit model
Helena Horton
Water minister Emma Hardy has told MPs on the environment, food and rural affairs committee that English water companies could transition to a co-operative or not-for-profit model, similar to Welsh Water.
But she said no government money would be used for such a transition.
Asked if the sector could move from a for-profit model to a not-for-profit structure, she said:
We were really clear on nationalisation as we didn’t want to mislead people by putting something into a report that we weren’t going to adopt.
But there is a recommendation, number 46… looks at a case by case basis whether it would be appropriate for water companies to transition to an alternate ownership model if they wish to do so, or after special administration.
So one of the recommendations is to say on a case by case basis would it be appropriate for that water company to transition into another model, so that is there. I do want to be clear that wouldn’t involve state funding, it wouldn’t involve money from government as we won’t be involved in state money going into companies.
A UK government bond auction has gone well.
The Debt Management Office sold £1.75bn of gilts maturing in 2043 that was covered 3.5 times, indicating good demand. The bonds were sold with a yield of 5.291%.
In bond markets, the yield on 30-year gilts has ticked up slightly to 5.46%.
Gold hits fresh record high, silver also rises
Gold has continued to rise and hit a fresh record high earlier today.
Spot gold touched $3,659.10 an ounce and is now trading at $3,654 an ounce, up 0.5% on the day.
Gold prices have gained almost 39% so far this year, after rising by 27% in 2024, boosted by a weak dollar, central banks adding to their gold reserves, interest rate cuts and heightened global uncertainty. Gold is seen as a safe haven in times of turmoil.
The price of silver has also risen, as mounting expectations for interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve underpinned demand for precious metals. Spot silver edged 0.1% higher to $41.35 an ounce, near its highest level since 2011.
Oil prices are also up, with Brent crude, the global benchmark, trading nearly 1% higher at $66.61 a barrel. The Opec oil cartel and allies including Russia announced over the weekend that it would lift output at a slower pace than in previous.
Another factor underpinning oil prices is the prospect of fresh sanctions on Russia, a a major oil exporter. Donald Trump has threatened new sanctions on Russia after Moscow’s heaviest strikes on Ukraine since its invasion in February 2022.
Here’s our full story on Anglo American’s ‘merger of equals’ with Canada’s Teck Resources.
It comes after Anglo fended off a series of takeover attempts by its larger rival BHP last year, pushing it to radically restructure its business.
Anglo has sought to streamline its focus on iron ore and copper. This year it spun off its platinum mining business, and it has been exploring the potential sale of its renowned diamond business De Beers.
Anglo owns the Collahuasi and Los Bronces copper mines in Chile while Teck owns the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in the Andes, 15 km west of Collahuasi.
Copper is demand around the world, as electric vehicles require a substantial amount of copper in batteries, electric motors, wiring and charging infrastructure. The metal is also used in artificial intelligence data centres.
A recent BloombergNEF report predicted that copper demand from AI-powered facilities will average about 400,000 tonnes a year over the next decade, peaking at 572,000 tonnes in 2028.
France’s industrial production falls in July
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said:
The CAC 40 jumped 0.6% despite political chaos in France. There were broad-based gains, with energy, consumer cyclical, tech and healthcare leading the way. Investors are forward-looking and they’re focused on a new prime minister bringing change to the country.
The French stock market also shrugged off a decline in industry output. Manufacturing output fell by 1.7% in July after June’s 3.5% increase, while wider industrial production fell by 1.1% following June’s 3.7% gain, according to official data from France’s statistics office INSEE.
June’s sharp rise was driven by a surge in aerospace and aviation manufacturing.
“Still, the broader picture is more reassuring: production levels across all industrial sectors remain above those seen in May, said Charlotte de Montpellier, senior economist at ING.
The decline in industrial production in July masks a fairly solid underlying trend at the start of the third quarter. However, against a backdrop of weak consumption, growing political uncertainty and pressure on public finances, the economic outlook for France remains fragile.
These figures suggest a decent start to the third quarter, but the underlying economic momentum is weak. Household consumption of goods dropped sharply in July, and business sentiment remains subdued. Political uncertainty is adding to the gloom.
Investment, hiring and consumption decisions could be delayed, further slowing economic activity. Rising market interest rates are pushing up financing costs, impacting some sectors such as real estate and construction. After a mildly positive third quarter, stagnation looks increasingly probable in the final months of the year.
Annual GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.6% in 2025, down from 1.1% in 2024. That leaves the starting point for 2026 on shaky ground, with growth likely to remain below potential. Political instability is likely to continue to weigh on France’s economic outlook in the next quarters, and growth is expected to remain below the European average. This persistent weakness will continue to weigh on public finances.
French stock market rises despite political crisis, bond yields creep higher
In the markets, the FTSE 100 index has edged 0.2% higher while Germany’s Dax gained 0.15% and Italy’s FTSE MiB rose by 0.5%.
France’s CAC climbed by 0.7%, despite political turmoil in the country. French president Emmanuel Macron is seeking his fifth prime minister in less than two years, after centre-right PM François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote on Monday, as expected. This toppled his minority government.
Bayrou had called the vote himself as a last-ditch gamble for support, saying he needed backing from parliament for austerity measures to reduce the public debt.
The yield, or interest rate, on French government bonds is creeping higher, amid concerns over France’s ability to get to grips with its high debt.
Asian stock markets were mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei losing 0.4% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 1.1%.
Japan’s prime minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned over the weekend, and Sanae Takaichi, a veteran of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party and a fiscal dove, has decided to run in the party’s leadership race, the news agency Kydo reported.
The dollar has sunk to a seven-week low against other major currencies, with markets betting on an interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve next week.
Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Britzman said:
A quiet Monday masks a big week ahead for US markets, with the Nasdaq hitting an all-time high as tech and retail led a modest rebound. The S&P 500 added 0.5%, while the Russell 2000 lagged after its recent run. Treasury yields continued their descent, with the 10-year near 4%, its lowest in five months, and the 2-year hovering around 3.5%, levels last seen in 2022.
Markets are fully priced for a 25bps cut [from the Fed] this month, and expect more to come. With PPI, CPI [inflation], and a key labour revision on deck, plus long-term inflation expectations holding steady, the Fed has room to manoeuvre. But the data will dictate how far and fast easing goes.
Brent crude oil climbed above $66 a barrel this morning, still buoyed by news that OPEC+ opted for a modest 137,000 bpd output hike, far smaller than recent increases. Geopolitical risk added support, with Trump threatening tougher sanctions on Russia after its heaviest strikes on Ukraine since the war began. Gains were capped, however, as Saudi Arabia cut prices for Asian buyers, underscoring demand concerns.
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said:
Anglo American’s merger with Teck Resources is its latest strategic pivot that cements copper at the heart of its portfolio. With over 70% copper exposure and a top-five global position, the combined group is positioned to ride the structural demand story tied to electrification and energy transition.
The $800m in annual cost synergies and $1.4bn EBITDA uplift from Chilean asset integration are compelling. But the real prize is growth optionality, leveraging a pipeline of brownfield and greenfield projects across the Americas. For Anglo investors, the $4.5bn special dividend sweetens the near-term picture, while the long-term upside hinges on execution and a green light from the regulator. Back-of-the-hand maths suggests Teck holders are getting a healthy premium from the deal, and shares of the Canadian miner have soared in after-hours trading.
Teck shares jumped by nearly 24% in after-hours trading as speculation swirled that the companies were close to a deal after a Bloomberg News article.
The Anglo American share price has jumped by 5.2% in early trading in London, making it the biggest riser on the FTSE 100 index.
This gives the mining company a market value of £28.4bn.
Other miners such as Glencore and Antofagasta are also among the main risers, up by more than 2%.
Mélanie Joly, Canada’s industry minister, said on X:
Introduction: Anglo American agrees mining mega merger; Londoners face commuting struggles as tube strike enters second day
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
The London-listed miner Anglo American is to merge with Canada’s Teck Resources, in a deal that will create a $53bn (£39bn) giant but raises fears of job cuts.
It is the biggest mining deal in more than a decade. The FTSE 100 company said it had agreed a merger deal to create a “global critical minerals champion” and one of the world’s biggest copper producers. The combined market value of both companies is more than $53bn.
Global demand for copper is expected to keep rising, driven by the electric vehicle boom and AI-powered data centres.
Billed as a “merger of equals”, the new mining group, called Anglo Teck, will be headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, and have corporate offices in London and Johannesburg. It will have its main listing on the London Stock Exchange, with secondary listings in Toronto, South Africa and New York.
Anglo shareholders will own 62.4% of the combined company and Teck the remaining 37.6%. The deal is expected to lead to annual pre-tax savings of $800m by the end of the fourth year.
Around $60m of savings will come from “de-duplication and rationalisation of board, executive leadership and other costs associated with a listed company” and $150m from removing other overlapping functions, raising the prospect of job cuts. There won’t be any net reduction in employees in Canada, the companies said.
Duncan Wanblad, the Anglo chief executive, who will move to Canada along with the rest of the leadership team, said:
We are all committed to preserving and building on the proud heritage of both companies, both in Canada, as Anglo Teck’s natural headquarters, and in South Africa where our commitment to investment and national priorities endure.
There’s more misery for London commuters today as tube strikes enter a second day, and unlike yesterday, the Docklands Light Railway isn’t running today.
Industrial action by the RMT union has brought almost the entire tube network to a standstill, and buses and the Elizabeth line were taking the strain yesterday.
More congestion is expected today as more people still typically work from home on Mondays and Fridays.
A union organiser told the BBC yesterday that said there could be more industrial action after this week, but they hope to be in ‘meaningful discussions’ with Transport for London by the end of this week. Jared Wood said:
We have a mandate that lasts for six months under industrial relations law and our members have told us they’re ready to take more action.
But that’s not what we want to be doing. At the end of this week we hope to be in meaningful discussions where the company says, ‘alright let’s come up with a way of resolving this’.
The union’s demands include better pay and access to a travel card which gives holders ticket deals at Legoland, Thorpe Park and Chessington World of Adventures, as well as guided tours of Buckingham Palace, according to the Daily Telegraph. The rail staff leisure card gives 75% off all mainline train tickets outside London.
TfL has made a pay offer of 3.4%, which it urged the union to put to its members in a fresh ballot. It has said it cannot meet demands to cut hours below the current 35 a week.
Bike rental surged yesterday as Londoners took to two wheels. TfL’s cycle hire scheme had more than 20,000 hires by 3pm, double the previous Monday’s rate. The e-bike rental company Lime said it had 58% more users on Monday morning, while rival Forest said it had doubled its rush-hour usage.
The Agenda
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All day: TUC Congress in Brighton
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9.15am BST: Treasury committee hearing on motor finance with FCA CEO Nikhil Rathi and chairman Ashley Adler
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10am BST: EFRA hearing with water minister Emma Hardy
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10am BST: UK Treasury gilt 2043 auction
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10.30am BST: Germany 10-year Bund auction
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3pm BST: US Non-farm Payrolls annual revision
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4.15pm BST: Bank of England deputy governor Sarah Breeden speech
