Introduction: Markets brace for US jobs report, with White House telling investors ‘they shouldn’t panic’
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
It’s non-farm payrolls day! The eagerly-awaited US jobs report is out today, and the White House has been trying to moderate expectations.
Peter Navarro, senior counselor for trade and manufacturing to Donald Trump, was speaking on Fox News last night.
We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like. When we were letting in 2 million illegal aliens a day we had to produce 200,000 [jobs] a month for steady stay.
Now 50,000 a month is going to be more like what we need. Wall Street, when this stuff comes out, they can’t rain on our parade, they just have to adjust for the fact that we’re deporting millions of illegals.
When asked whether the number would be weak, he rowed back and said no, but stressed that investors need to expect smaller numbers in future.
[A person can’t be illegal – see here.]
Navarro: “The jobs report comes out tomorrow. We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like … Wall Street has to adjust for the fact that we’re deporting millions of illegals out of the job market.” pic.twitter.com/j7aFJkMGFh
— Molly Ploofkins (@Mollyploofkins) February 10, 2026
This comes after a warning from National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett on Monday. “One shouldn’t panic,” he told CNBC on Monday. “You should expect slightly smaller job numbers.”
The data release, delayed from last week, is expected to show the economy created 70,000 jobs in January, after 50,000 in December.
Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said:
The FTSE 100 is set to open up, after a lacklustre close on Tuesday. On quiet days for earnings reports and economic data points, the index tends to act as a barometer for commodity prices. Gold prices have strengthened slightly and are at close to two-year highs, supported by strengthening sentiment around US rate cuts this year. Copper and oil are also providing a light tailwind today.
US stock futures are erring on the side of optimism ahead of jobs data expected later on. Hopes for a rate cut by the Fed next month have improved slightly after American retail sales unexpectedly flatlined in December, with shares in Costco, Target and Walmart all ending down on Tuesday.
The next steer for rate setters will be US non-farm payrolls data due later today. Forecasts are for an increase in hiring from 50,000 in December to 70,000 in January. That’s still a relatively light number, but anything lower could see markets gain more confidence in the scope for three rate cuts this year. Changes to the benchmark are also in play today, which are expected to see hiring rates for last year revised downwards.
Economists at Deutsche Bank said:
Our US economists see nonfarm payrolls coming in at +75k, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.4%. Remember as well that today’s report will include the annual benchmark revisions to payrolls, which could rewrite some of the trends over recent history.
We already got the preliminary number in September, which said that payrolls were -911k lower as of March 2025. However, that number can be different from the preliminary release, and last year’s preliminary benchmark revision was -818k but the final number was a smaller -589k, so not as negative as first thought.
The Agenda
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1.30pm GMT: US non-farm payrolls for January (previous: 50,000; forecast: 70,000)
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5.30pm GMT: Bank of England policymaker James Talbot gives speech
Key events
Wealth manager, insurance and price comparison site stocks hit by AI fears
Wealth managers and price comparison sites are the latest companies to be knocked by fears that their businesses will be affected by new artificial intelligence (AI) tools.
Shares in UK wealth management firms tumbled this morning, after Californian AI firm Altruist Corp launched a service which it said helps advisers create personalised tax strategies by reading a clients’ pay stubs, account statements, and other documents.
UK wealth manager St James’s Place slid 9% in early trading, while rival Quilter fell 4.8% and AJ Bell lost 5.3%. Investors worry that agentic tools (autonomous AI systems that use large language models) that can sort tax affairs, or provide advice, could hit their revenues.
The insurer Hiscox is down 2.1%. European insurance stocks and price comparison sites already fell yesterday, mirroring moves in US insurance brokers, after the Masschusetts-based online insurance platform Insurify released an AI-powered comparison tool built on ChatGPT that allows users to compare car insurance quotes directly.
“Fresh casualties from AI advances are falling on the investment landscape,” warned Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club.
The big reveal from tech start-up Altruist Corp, which is led by former Wall Street professionals, is a new tool helping financial advisers personalise tax strategies for clients and deal with all the admin. The worry is that this is just the tip of the iceberg and fresh efficiencies will be unleashed by AI to disrupt the financial advice and investment industry and reduce the fees which can be charged. As the AI cards are shuffled, the pile of potential losers is mounting up, and speculation about which sector will be hit next is rife.
Shares in two of the UK’s largest price comparisons continue to fall. The owner of Moneysupermarket, Mony Group, fell 2% in early trading, after they closed 12% down yesterday, when the shares fell to their lowest level in 13 years.
Go.Compare owner Future is trading 2.7% lower, following the previous day’s 3.6% fall.
In addition, Spain-based digital insurer Tuio is to provide home insurance quotes directly to ChatGPT users and other companies are expected to follow suit, adding to fears that consumers seeking car, home and travel insurance could turn to chatbots to gather and compare quotes.
London Stock Exchange Group shares jump on reports of Elliott stake
Shares in the London Stock Exchange Group jumped 7% after it emerged that the activist investor Elliott Management has built a stake in the company and is engaging with the board to improve performance, according to a source cited by Reuters.
LSEG shares are now up 1.5%, after losing more than a third of its value in the past 12 months, including a sell-off in global software stocks last week that wiped out nearly $1tn in combined value.
The data and analytics group, which also runs the London Stock Exchange, has been hit by concerns that rising competition and artificial intelligence tools will squeeze its income.
The source said Elliott, a New York-based hedge fund known for its attempts to shake up listed companies, has been in talks with LSEG to help engineer an improvement and urge it to consider a fresh share buyback, confirming an initial report by the Financial Times.
This marks a fresh campaign by the US investor after it pressured BP to overhaul its strategy, tighten its operations and boost cashflow.
Heineken to cut up to 6,000 jobs
Heineken said it will cut up to 6,000 jobs globally and issued a lower estimate for profit growth in 2026 than last year, as the Dutch brewer and other companies grapple with weak demand for beer.
The world’s second-biggest brewer by market value, which makes Heineken, Tiger and Amstel, outlined plans to reduce its global workforce by 5,000 to 6,000 over the next two years – almost 7% of its 87,000 headcount.
Beer sales across the industry have struggled amid stretched consumer finances, geopolitical turmoil and bad weather. In some countries, people are drinking less because of concerns over the health impact of alcohol, and the popularity of weight loss drugs like Wegovy and Mounjaro, which have led to changing diets and lifestyles.
Heineken’s finance chief Harold van den Broek said:
We really do this to strengthen our operations and to be able to invest in growth.
Some of the job cuts will be in Europe and other non-priority markets that offer fewer growth prospects, he said, and some will come from previously announced measures targeting Heineken’s supply network, head office and regional business divisions.
The company is looking for a new chief executive after the surprise resignation of Dolf van den Brink in January.
It is expecting slower profit growth of 2% to 6% this year, compared with the 4% to 8% it predicted in 2025. The brewer reported a better-than-expected rise of 4.4% in organic operating profits last year.
Introduction: Markets brace for US jobs report, with White House telling investors ‘they shouldn’t panic’
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
It’s non-farm payrolls day! The eagerly-awaited US jobs report is out today, and the White House has been trying to moderate expectations.
Peter Navarro, senior counselor for trade and manufacturing to Donald Trump, was speaking on Fox News last night.
We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like. When we were letting in 2 million illegal aliens a day we had to produce 200,000 [jobs] a month for steady stay.
Now 50,000 a month is going to be more like what we need. Wall Street, when this stuff comes out, they can’t rain on our parade, they just have to adjust for the fact that we’re deporting millions of illegals.
When asked whether the number would be weak, he rowed back and said no, but stressed that investors need to expect smaller numbers in future.
[A person can’t be illegal – see here.]
Navarro: “The jobs report comes out tomorrow. We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like … Wall Street has to adjust for the fact that we’re deporting millions of illegals out of the job market.” pic.twitter.com/j7aFJkMGFh
— Molly Ploofkins (@Mollyploofkins) February 10, 2026
This comes after a warning from National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett on Monday. “One shouldn’t panic,” he told CNBC on Monday. “You should expect slightly smaller job numbers.”
The data release, delayed from last week, is expected to show the economy created 70,000 jobs in January, after 50,000 in December.
Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said:
The FTSE 100 is set to open up, after a lacklustre close on Tuesday. On quiet days for earnings reports and economic data points, the index tends to act as a barometer for commodity prices. Gold prices have strengthened slightly and are at close to two-year highs, supported by strengthening sentiment around US rate cuts this year. Copper and oil are also providing a light tailwind today.
US stock futures are erring on the side of optimism ahead of jobs data expected later on. Hopes for a rate cut by the Fed next month have improved slightly after American retail sales unexpectedly flatlined in December, with shares in Costco, Target and Walmart all ending down on Tuesday.
The next steer for rate setters will be US non-farm payrolls data due later today. Forecasts are for an increase in hiring from 50,000 in December to 70,000 in January. That’s still a relatively light number, but anything lower could see markets gain more confidence in the scope for three rate cuts this year. Changes to the benchmark are also in play today, which are expected to see hiring rates for last year revised downwards.
Economists at Deutsche Bank said:
Our US economists see nonfarm payrolls coming in at +75k, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.4%. Remember as well that today’s report will include the annual benchmark revisions to payrolls, which could rewrite some of the trends over recent history.
We already got the preliminary number in September, which said that payrolls were -911k lower as of March 2025. However, that number can be different from the preliminary release, and last year’s preliminary benchmark revision was -818k but the final number was a smaller -589k, so not as negative as first thought.
The Agenda
-
1.30pm GMT: US non-farm payrolls for January (previous: 50,000; forecast: 70,000)
-
5.30pm GMT: Bank of England policymaker James Talbot gives speech
