Ravens futures get slightly longer with pass-rushing musical chairs

Just a reminder that no NFL trades or free-agent signings are official until said player(s) passes a physical. Sometimes, what one team’s doctor might not see another team’s does, and transactions can get voided. We got a stark reminder of that this week in the league when the Ravens’ big trade for Raiders  All-Pro pass-rusher Maxx Crosby was voided. Baltimore turned around and signed another All-Pro pass-rusher in Trey Hendrickson. Let’s try and sort all this out.

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Crosby was shut down against his wishes for the final two games of last season with some knee issues – turned out to be a torn meniscus in his left knee — that required surgery, but it was nothing that would cost him time in 2026. Teams interested in trading for Crosby met with his surgeon and the Raiders’ medical staff before making offers.

The Ravens’ doctors reviewed Crosby’s MRI and were in consensus that Crosby’s short-term outlook was positive, but there were concerns about the long-term prognosis of his knee and Crosby is owed about $93 million over the next three seasons.  In the NFL, there is no standard for evaluating the results of a physical.

Thus, Baltimore believed there was too much risk considering it was giving up two first-round picks to Las Vegas. There is a lot of scuttlebutt that Ravens GM Eric DeCosta simply got cold feet and that Hendrickson’s price came down, so DeCosta jumped. And while Crosby would have cost two first-round picks, Hendrickson only cost money: A four-year, $112 million deal as the Ravens outbid the Bills, Bucs, Colts and Eagles.

One could argue that Hendrickson is a better pass-rusher right now, but he’s 31 and Crosby is 28. Hendrickson was arguably the top free agent available on the market. From 2023-24 he became the fifth player in NFL history with at least 17 sacks in consecutive seasons, leading the league with 17.5 in 2024 when he was first-team All-Pro and runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year.

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Hendrickson ended the 2025 season on injured reserve after surgery to repair a core muscle injury, finishing with four sacks in seven games. That’s likely why he was still on the market, although some of those clubs were in on Crosby. Since signing with the Bengals as a free agent in 2021, Hendrickson ranks second in overall pressure rate (13.2%) and has 61 sacks, the fourth-highest total in the league. He is +2200 to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year this season; Crosby is +800.

Baltimore had 30 sacks in 2025, tied for the second-fewest in team history. The only edge rushers on the roster before this addition were Tavius Robinson, Mike Green, Adisa Isaac and Kaimon Rucker. They have 12.5 career sacks between them.

Running backs tend to fall off a cliff at age 30, and players with at least four career 10-sack seasons by age 30 this century like Hendrickson average 12.7 sacks at age 29 and 7.4 sacks by age 31 – which Hendrickson will be in early December. But at least he stays in the AFC North.

Baltimore’s futures odds across the board got shorter after adding Crosby and got slightly longer at a few sportsbooks with Hendrickson instead. The Ravens are +450 favorites at DraftKings to win the AFC and +900 third-favorites for the Super Bowl.

Below is the SportsLine Projection Model forecast for Baltimore with all this musical chairs of pass-rushers. It downgrades the team a bit, originally listing the Ravens at 10.7 wins with Crosby that dropped to 10.0 without but then rose back up to 10.4 adding Hendrickson. They had a 46.4% shot at the AFC North and 8.1% of winning Super Bowl 61 without Crosby; those are now 52.7% and 6.34% (equates to +1477) with Hendrickson.

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What about Crosby now? Las Vegas can still trade its star and had moved on by being among the biggest spenders in free agency, adding approximately $300 million in contracts, but Crosby might have to open the season in the Silver & Black after all. Many of the other top-pass rushers are now off the market in Jaelan Phillips (signed with Panthers) Odafe Oweh (Commanders), Khalil Mack (re-signed with Chargers) and Rashan Gary (traded to Cowboys).

Dallas was heavy on Crosby the first time around but reportedly is now out. Via Kalshi, that Crosby stays with the Raiders is priced at 44 cents per share (44% chance) and that he goes to the Bears is next at 30 cents, then Philadelphia at 15 cents. Chicago was the most likely destination when Crosby was dealt to Baltimore.

DraftKings offers a head-to-head sacks prop this season featuring Hendrickson  at -140 against Crosby at +110. I’d have to wait and see where Crosby lands before considering that.