Oil dips below $90, Eurozone and UK bond yields fall
The oil price has dipped below $90 a barrel, as investors weighed the pause in fire between the US and Iran.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell by 7.1% to $89.94 a barrel. It rose above $100 last week, when the US carried out several consecutive nights of strikes against Iran, and the Yemeni Houthi movement threatened to carry out a naval blockade of Saudi Arabian ports.
However prices are falling today as the US paused strikes on Iran for the second night in a row, and as military officials advised Donald Trump to stop his bombing campaign.
In Europe, bond yields are slipping on lower oil prices – Eurozone 10-year yields are down by about 3 basis points, while in the UK the 10-year gilt yield is down by about 5 basis points to 4.98%.
The drop in the UK gilt yield also came after Andy Burnham said over the weekend that the UK needed to bring the welfare bill down.
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at the broker Wealth Club, said the lower gillt yield eased some of the pressure off Burnham’s new government.
This will be welcome given focus has switched firmly to the spending challenges facing the new government, with warnings from the prime minister that social care needs desperate reform to help save the NHS while also accepting that the benefits bill needs to be brought down. There is still a distinct lack of detail on how he and his ministers will go about tackling the huge costs of welfare, and so investors in government debt look set to stay wary while there’s so much talk but so little action on lowering government spending costs.
Key events
China says Trump should ‘correct wrong practice’ on new tariffs
Beijing has again expressed its strong opposition to Donald Trump’s new trade tariffs on Chinese goods over alleged forced labour, urging Washington to “correct wrong practice” and cancel relevant unilateral tariff measures.
In a statement seen by Reuters, the ministry said China is willing to continue dialogue with the US based on mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit but warned it reserves the right to take all necessary measures while it assesses US actions.
Last week Beijing warned that trade wars are not in the interests of any party, after the US president announced a fresh wave of tariffs against more than 80 countries.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at the time:
We oppose all forms of unilateral tariff measures. Tariff wars and trade wars are not in the interests of any party.
European gas stockpiles at ‘historic low’ for July
While European wholesale gas prices are falling today, analysts are warning that low levels of supply and strong demand in Asia mean prices could ramp up this winter.
European gas stockpiles are at a “historic low” for July, at just above 50% capacity, according to the energy cosultancy Wood Mackenzie.
Analysts warned that European gas storage is on track for 75% capacity “at best” by 1 November, compared with a five-year average of 90%. They wrote:
Should the strait [of Hormuz] remain closed for a further two months, storage will end up lower than 70%. Prices would rise further and some emerging Asian economies, already strained by high LNG costs, face demand destruction.
Massimo Di Odoardo, vice president of gas and LNG research at Wood Mackenzie, said:
Low European inventories, strong Asian demand and limited new LNG supply growth almost guarantee elevated prices through this winter and into 2027.
Russ Mould, investment director at the broker AJ Bell, adds that the upbeat mood in stock markets today has been helped by the debut of the Chinese silicon chip maker CXMT. He said:
Its near five-fold surge may help to soothe concerns about the AI trade after slumps in SpaceX and Korea’s SK Hynix after their recent offerings.
The Chinese chipmaker listed in Shanghai today, with its shares surging by more than 400% – making it the country’s biggest onshore-listed company, overtaking the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC).
FCA launches £2m ad campaign against car loan claims firms
Kalyeena Makortoff
The UK’s financial watchdog has launched a £2m advertising campaign aimed at curbing use of claims management companies (CMCs), and encouraging drivers hit by the car finance scandal to file their own complaints.
The Financial Conduct Authority’s 30-second video advert features a series of pedestrians jumping over car bonnets in slow-motion, action film style, while text flashes across the screen to encourage their peers to “Feel Claim Confident.”
The multi-million pound campaign will run until 6 September, across outdoor billboards, national radio slots, print and social media, including Facebook, Instagram and Tiktok, and direct people to a self-fill form on the FCA website.
The FCA has been trying to steer consumers away from CMCs who lenders say have been targeted victims of the scandal, and can end up charging fees worth up to 33% of the final payouts. The FCA and lenders have advised consumers not to use these firms as the regulator’s scheme is free to use.
It comes as the FCA tries to push ahead with a portion of a £9.1bn compensation scheme which isn’t being challenged in the courts. The FCA is trying to draw a line under a long-running scandal in which borrowers were overcharged due to lenders paying commission to car dealerships between 2007 and 2024.
Commenting on the ad campaign, one of the FCA’s executive directors Sheree Howard said:
Many people who may be owed compensation aren’t sure where to start or don’t realise they don’t have to pay someone to make a complaint. Our free tools are there to help people feel claim confident – so they can get any money owed back without it costing them a penny.”
Shares in European airlines are also rising strongly this morning – Ryanair is up 2.6%, while British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines Group is up about 3%. Budget airline Wizz Air is also up by 3.2%.
US stocks are poised to join the global market rally later this afternoon – futures for the blue chip S&P 500 index are pointing to a 0.9% rise, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is poised to rise 1.5%. US airlines are also set to rise, with Delta and American up 2.6% and 3% in pre-market trading. Cruise operators Royal Caribbean and Carnival are also up by about 3% each.
European gas prices drop sharply
European wholesale gas prices are also falling this morning, as a pause in US and Iranian strikes over the weekend lifts hopes that traffic through the strait of Hormuz could continue.
The European benchmark, the Dutch front-month contract, fell by 6.8% to €59.22 per megawatt hour (MWh). The British month ahead contract dropped by 6.8% to 143.93p per therm.
Energy companies BP and Shell are unsurprisingly the worst performers across the FTSE 100 this morning, with their shares down by 3.8% and 2% respectively thanks to the weaker oil price. Overall the energy sector is down by about 2.6%.
JD Sports is the best performer, with shares in the fashion retailer up 3.6%. Vodafone is second, with its shares up 3% after an upbeat quarterly update this morning.
European stock market rallies as US-Iran pause pushes oil lower
European stocks are rallying this morning as investors rejoice at a sharp drop in oil prices, after the US paused its nearly two-week long run of strikes against Iran.
The Stoxx Europe 600, which tracks the biggest companies on the continent, is up by 0.9%. The UK’s blue chip FTSE 100 is up 0.5%, while the French Cac 40 is up 1.1% and the German Dax is up 1.5%.
Oil dips below $90, Eurozone and UK bond yields fall
The oil price has dipped below $90 a barrel, as investors weighed the pause in fire between the US and Iran.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell by 7.1% to $89.94 a barrel. It rose above $100 last week, when the US carried out several consecutive nights of strikes against Iran, and the Yemeni Houthi movement threatened to carry out a naval blockade of Saudi Arabian ports.
However prices are falling today as the US paused strikes on Iran for the second night in a row, and as military officials advised Donald Trump to stop his bombing campaign.
In Europe, bond yields are slipping on lower oil prices – Eurozone 10-year yields are down by about 3 basis points, while in the UK the 10-year gilt yield is down by about 5 basis points to 4.98%.
The drop in the UK gilt yield also came after Andy Burnham said over the weekend that the UK needed to bring the welfare bill down.
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at the broker Wealth Club, said the lower gillt yield eased some of the pressure off Burnham’s new government.
This will be welcome given focus has switched firmly to the spending challenges facing the new government, with warnings from the prime minister that social care needs desperate reform to help save the NHS while also accepting that the benefits bill needs to be brought down. There is still a distinct lack of detail on how he and his ministers will go about tackling the huge costs of welfare, and so investors in government debt look set to stay wary while there’s so much talk but so little action on lowering government spending costs.
Elsewhere on the corporate front this morning, Vodafone has reported a 9.7% rise in revenue in its first quarter to €10.3bn.
Service revenue rose 5% in the quarter ended in June, compared with investor expectations of a 4.6% gain. Management now expects that its adjusted earnings will reach somewhere between €13bn to €13.3bn for the full year ending in March.
In recent years, Vodafone has restructured its business – including selling its Italian and Spanish operations and its 50% stake in its Dutch joint venture – as well as merging with Three to create the UK’s largest mobile operator.
Earlier this month the French telecoms billionaire Xavier Niel became Vodafone’s largest shareholder after buying a 16% stake for £4.4bn.
The company has also been fighting allegations, first published in the Guardian, that it “unjustly enriched” itself at the expense of scores of vulnerable small business owners by slashing commissions to franchisees running the mobile phone group’s high street stores.
DCC Energy agrees to £5.75bn takeover
Yet another company has been picked off London’s stock exchange this morning: DCC Energy has agreed to a £5.75bn takeover by private equity investors KKR and Energy Capital Partners.
Shareholders in the FTSE 100 energy distributor will receive £65.25 per share in cash, a proposed final dividend of 147.22p per share, and a potential payment of up to £1.25 per share if DCC can sell its technology unit for at least $800 million.
The deal represents a 24% premium to DCC’s share price in late April, before it received the consortium’s first bid.
DCC chair Mark Breuer said in a statement:
Whilst the DCC Energy Board remains confident in the energy strategy and associated 2030 Ambition announced in 2022, the Board believes the Consortium’s offer represents a compelling opportunity for shareholders to crystallise value in cash at an attractive premium to DCC Energy’s historical trading price.
We are confident that the Consortium will be strong stewards of DCC Energy’s 50-year heritage and support the business during its next phase of growth.”
It is the latest in a long string of takeovers in London’s stock market – Mitie, Intertek, easyJet, Beazley and Schroders have all agreed to takeovers this year.
Shein falls to $99m loss ahead of IPO
The Chinese fast fashion giant Shein reported a $99m (£74.1m) net loss in its first quarter, after the removal of an import duty exemption in the US on small packages triggered a slowdown in sales.
The figures were released as part of the company’s pre-IPO paperwork, as it prepares to list on Hong Kong’s stock exchange.
It showed that the business made a $99m loss in the first quarter of 2026, compared with net income of $395m a year earlier.
The US scrapped its tariff exemption for small packages in May. Shein said in its filing that it was “pursuing a wide range of options, including increasing our prices in the US market to offset a portion of the increased costs”.
The European Union has also this month imposed a €3 fee on low-value e-commerce imports, in a move designed to defend European businesses from what the union calls “unfair competition” from China.
Shein has seen a sharp drop in its valuation in recent years, as the pandemic-era boom in online shopping has ended. The company is now reportedly seeking a valuation of $40bn to $50bn, compared with reports of a potential valuation of $100bn in 2022.
Introduction: Oil price slides as US and Iran pause fire
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Oil prices have fallen more than 5% this morning as the US paused strikes on Iran for the second night in a row, with military officials advising Donald Trump to stop his bombing campaign.
Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, is now down 5.3% to $91.68 a barrel, after it hit $100 last week.
Trum is believed to be considering diplomatic and military options in the conflict with Iran, while the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to visit the White House on Tuesday.
Iran said on Sunday that it would pause “retaliatory” attacks against US allies in the region.
Jim Reid, of Deutsche Bank, says that while the pause is not a formal ceasefire, both sides have presented it as “an opportunity for diplomacy”.
US officials, including UN ambassador Mike Waltz, have stressed that all military options remain on the table and that President Trump is simply giving negotiations more space. However, reports from the New York Times and Axios suggest an active debate within the administration over both the effectiveness and costs of further strikes, with some military officials reportedly arguing that key objectives have largely been achieved. For now, the market is treating the lull as a positive development, although the situation remains highly fluid.
The main market risk remains the energy and shipping front. Traffic through Hormuz remains severely disrupted, while the conflict has broadened into the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi forces reportedly launched missile and drone attacks against Saudi energy infrastructure around Jizan and Yanbu over the weekend, prompting retaliatory Saudi strikes. This raises the prospect of simultaneous disruption to both Gulf and Red Sea export routes. So a welcome pause from the main actors but a fragile one, especially with side battles still ongoing.
Elsewhere this morning, AstraZeneca reported better than expected profits for its second quarter, driven by strong growth in its cancer treatment sales.
Its earnings for the three months ended in June rose 18% to $2.63 (£1.97) a share, while its overall revenue rose by 5% to $15.38bn at constant currency.
