Lane Thomas trade grades: Braves ace necessary offensive upgrade, Royals should have gotten more in return

The Atlanta Braves have acquired outfielder Lane Thomas and left-handed pitcher Bailey Falter in a trade with the Kansas City Royals, the teams announced late Saturday, less than 48 hours before the trade deadline. The Royals received minor-league pitchers Carter Holton and Lucas Braun in the deal.

Thomas, 30, presently has an OPS+ of 104, which is right in line with his career mark of 103. A right-handed hitter, he boasts a career OPS of .850 against left-handed pitching. This season, Thomas has spent time at all three outfield positions, and he’s been a primary center fielder in each of the last three seasons. That makes him a sound roster fit in Atlanta, which has left-handed hitters starting in center (Michael Harris II) and in right (Mike Yastrzemski). The Braves were also in need of outfield depth because they may want to give Ronald Acuña Jr. more time at DH in an attempt to keep him healthy for the stretch drive and postseason. 

As for Falter, the 29-year-old has mostly been a starter for his career, but he does have experience working out of the bullpen. He may fill a long-relief/swing role for the Braves, as they figure to add additional rotation help before Monday’s deadline. 

For the Braves, the move comes as they attempt to maintain their healthy lead in the National League East and perhaps put pressure on the Dodgers and Brewers ahead of them for a first-round bye in the postseason. The Royals, meantime, are in last place in the American League Central with negligible postseason hopes. 

The trade comes mere days before Major League Baseball’s Aug. 3 trade deadline. Here now are our grades for the Thomas-to-Atlanta trade.

Atlanta Braves: A

Offense was a must for the Braves at the deadline and Mauricio Dubón’s versatility allowed them to pursue either a shortstop or an outfielder. They went with the latter. Thomas remains a solid all-around contributor, even though he will never again be the 28-homer, 20-steal player he was in 2023. He hits lefties well, he plays solid defense in the corners, and he’s a sneaky excellent baserunner.

Thomas is only 7 for 10 stealing bases, but his extra-base taken rate (first-to-third on a single, etc.) is an exceptional 82%, exactly double the MLB average. Keep him out of center field and he’ll catch what he’s supposed to catch in the outfield and then some. The Braves will presumably platoon Thomas with Mike Yastrzemski, then move Dubón back to short full-time.

Figure manager Walt Weiss will fill out his new lineup card along these lines:

1. C Drake Baldwin, LHB
2. RF Ronald Acuña Jr., RHB
3. 1B Matt Olson, LHB
4. CF Michael Harris II, LHB
5. 2B Ozzie Albies, SHB
6. LF Mike Yastrzemski, LHB and Lane Thomas, RHB
7. DH Dominic Smith, LHB and Joey Bart, RHB
8. 3B Austin Riley
9. SS Mauricio Dubón, RHB

Falter surrendered 15 runs in 9 ⅔ innings with the Royals earlier this year, then was removed from the 40-man roster and sent to Triple-A in early June. He has a 3.35 ERA in 43 minor-league innings. For all intents and purposes, Falter was included in the trade as a salary dump. He’s a low-impact depth arm with a $3.6 million salary. Kansas City was happy to shed that.

Depending on what the Orioles do with Taylor Ward, there’s a case to be made that Thomas was the best right-handed hitting outfielder on the market at a time when teams are starved for righty bats. The Braves landed him, and taking on Falter’s remaining salary reduced the prospect cost to some degree. That’s Grade-A work in my opinion. 

Kansas City Royals: C

Salary dump lessens the return

Give the Royals a truth serum and I bet they would tell you even they didn’t expect Thomas to be this productive this season, or to have this much of a market at the trade deadline. Trading him was a no-brainer. The disappointing thing is they attached Falter and his (minimal) salary to Thomas, and didn’t prioritize maximizing the return. Were Braun and Holton really the best they could do?

Braun, 24, has a 3.53 ERA with a subpar 20.8% strikeout rate in 94 ⅓ innings split between Double-A and Triple-A this year. Before the trade, Baseball America ranked him as the No. 7 prospect in a thin Braves system, saying that the “optimistic outlook could be a Chris Bassitt-like pitcher who finds success with below-average velocity by throwing the kitchen sink with good control.”

Holton, 23, has a 4.32 ERA in 41 ⅔ innings in the low minors. He did not rank among Baseball America’s top 30 Braves prospects prior to the trade. Holton’s a bit of a lottery ticket. The trade on Kansas City’s end boils down to Thomas for Braun and Falter’s salary relief. It feels like there had to be more of a market for Thomas. This trade gets a C.