Diesel shortages could persist well into 2027
Shortgages of diesel that have driven prices to record level are set to extent well into next year, the International Energy Agency has warned.
In its monthly oil market report, just released, the IEA warn that prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern and Russian exports have led to a fall in stocks of diesel, ahead of the peak winter demand season.
And while prices were pushed higher, demand remained strong, which the IEA says was partly due to “government measures aimed at easing the impact of high prices on consumers”.
This allowed oil refiners to cash in with higher profit margins (technically known as the ‘diesel crack spread’), at a time when drivers are paying billions of pounds more at the pumps:
The agency warns that it could take until the second half of next year for inventories to be replenished, saying:
Falling inventories, soaring cracks, and steepening levels of backwardation have signalled the need for additional supplies.
However, even with a rapid recovery expected in refinery throughputs into year-end, gasoil supply falls short of meeting demand in 4Q26, suggesting that the replenishment of lost inventories, outside of typical seasonal fluctuations, is unlikely before 2H27.
The IEA also reckons that Donald Trump’s deal to buy diesel from Russia is unlikely to help much, explaining:
The recently announced easing of Russian diesel export restrictions is unlikely to materially alter the global gasoil market balance as the current export constraints stem from a lack of operational Russian refinery capacity.
Key events
Back in Thailand, foreign secretary Ed Miliband has promised a ‘pragmatic approach’ to energy extraction in the North Sea.
Speaking to Sky News after speaking on the sidelines of the IMF’s annnual meeting, Miliband said:
“I’ve always had a pragmatic approach to the North Sea. We continue to use oil and gas for decades to come. The North Sea continues to play a role. We’ve also got to make progress when it comes to climate and show leadership working with others.”
I’m not sure ‘pragmatic’ is the very first word that the fossil fuel industry would use to describe Miliband, who as energy secretary ruled out new North Sea oil and gas exploration or lower taxes for fossil fuel companies.
But! Yesterday he reportedly approved a massive new oil field development in waters around the Falkland Islands, much to Argentina’s chagrin.
We’re still waiting for the government’s decision on whether to approve the controversial Jackdaw gasfield in the North Sea…
Bank of America earnings hit by $1.2bn fine over money laundering failings
Bank of America’s profits have been hit by the cost of a billion-dollar-plus fine for money laundering failings.
BofA has reported net income of $6.9bn for the third quarter of theis year, but it would have made $8.1bn without the $1.2bn fine imposed by the US Treasury Department earlier this week for failing to detect potential money laundering and other illegal activity.
The bank’s revenues rose by 3% in the quarter, thanks to higher net interest income (NII) – as it benefitted from higher interest rates – and asset management fees.
BofA’s chair and CEO Brian Moynihan says:
“The team delivered organic growth, deepening client relationships and adding new ones. While investment banking and sales and trading revenues were lower, commercial lending grew in every client segment.
Our momentum, reflected in growth in client deposits, wealth flows and consumer activity, supported solid earnings, balance-sheet growth and long-term shareholder value.”
London’s Metropolitan police are in hot water with the Information Commissioner over its handling of data from a shoplifting clampdown.
The Information Commissioner has issued a reprimand and enforcement notice to the Metropolitan Police Service after finding that its officers and staff shared personal information using an unapproved third-party retail crime intelligence-sharing platform without appropriate data protection safeguards, governance or oversight.
The Met created profiles for 179 people on this platform, as it tried to identify shoplifting suspects.
However, the IC found that it had unlawfully processed personal information without the individual’s consent, failed to take measures to protect personal information.
David Doodson, ICO Head of Investigations, says:
Police forces hold large volumes of sensitive personal information and must have robust safeguards in place to protect it.
Whilst new technologies can deliver significant operational benefits, organisations cannot allow innovation to outpace their data protection responsibilities. Before introducing new systems or platforms, they must properly assess the risks, put appropriate safeguards in place and ensure effective oversight.
This action should send a message across the policing sector, and beyond: if you are using new technology to process people’s information you must do so lawfully, transparently and with appropriate governance from the outset.
Where organisations fail to protect people’s information, we will take action. Our role is not only to hold organisations to account, but to drive improvements and promote the standards people have a right to expect.
The IEA has also warned that any unexpected disruptions, such as a late-season US Gulf Coast hurricane, could further tighten the oil market…..
UK pharmaceuticals firm GSK is planning to cut up to 1,217 jobs from its sites in Belgium.
The restructuring will reportedly affect activities in research and development, manufacturing and international support functions, while factory workers aren’t expected to be hit.
In a statement, GSK said:
“GSK Belgium informed its extraordinary works council today that it intends to reorganise certain operations. This plan could affect up to 1,217 employees across its various Belgian sites.”
Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni has criticised US President Donald Trump’s agreement on Russian diesel, calling it as a “very risky” decision, ANSA news agency reported.
Speaking in the Senate ahead of the European Council summit, Meloni said the surge in fuel prices was primarily driven by the war in Iran rather than Ukraine, adding:
“Therefore, the outcome of this decision is uncertain, while the risks are clear: legitimization for Moscow.”
The International Energy Agency is concerned that the escalation of hostilities in the Gulf region will crush hopes of a pick-up in oil supplies.
It says:
A recovery in Middle East oil supply was well underway in September, with Gulf crude oil exports approaching pre-war levels. However, the recent escalation in attacks on regional energy infrastructure and tanker traffic is threatening to derail further gains.
Yesterday, Saudi Arabia attacked a strategic oil depot on the outskirts of Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, following attacks on its energy infrastructure by Houthi forces based in Yemen – including oil giant Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in the east of the kingdom which was hit this week.
Today’s IEA report also shows that global diesel exports in September were 700,000 barrells per day lower than a year ago.
That was due to a drop of 1.3m barrels per day from Russia and the Middle East, which was only partly offset by higher supply from other sources.
The IEA also predicts that demand for oil will drop this year – with demand only expected to partly recover next year.
In its new oil market report, it says:
World oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.5 mb/d y-o-y [million barrels per day, year-on-year] in 4Q26 and 2.6 mb/d on average in 2026.
As the Iran war manifests itself through restricted product availability, soaring fuel prices and a deteriorating economic outlook, diesel will register 25% of the drop. A partial recovery, of 2 mb/d, will leave 2027 global oil use 620 kb/d, or 0.6%, below 2025 levels.
The Iran war will also push down oil suply this year, the IEA adds:
Oil supply is projected to post an average annual decline of 5.8 mb/d, to 100.7 mb/d, this year, before reversing course and rising by 7.7 mb/d in 2027. Renewed attacks in the Gulf leave the recovery fragile.
Diesel shortages could persist well into 2027
Shortgages of diesel that have driven prices to record level are set to extent well into next year, the International Energy Agency has warned.
In its monthly oil market report, just released, the IEA warn that prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern and Russian exports have led to a fall in stocks of diesel, ahead of the peak winter demand season.
And while prices were pushed higher, demand remained strong, which the IEA says was partly due to “government measures aimed at easing the impact of high prices on consumers”.
This allowed oil refiners to cash in with higher profit margins (technically known as the ‘diesel crack spread’), at a time when drivers are paying billions of pounds more at the pumps:
The agency warns that it could take until the second half of next year for inventories to be replenished, saying:
Falling inventories, soaring cracks, and steepening levels of backwardation have signalled the need for additional supplies.
However, even with a rapid recovery expected in refinery throughputs into year-end, gasoil supply falls short of meeting demand in 4Q26, suggesting that the replenishment of lost inventories, outside of typical seasonal fluctuations, is unlikely before 2H27.
The IEA also reckons that Donald Trump’s deal to buy diesel from Russia is unlikely to help much, explaining:
The recently announced easing of Russian diesel export restrictions is unlikely to materially alter the global gasoil market balance as the current export constraints stem from a lack of operational Russian refinery capacity.
There’s been a quiet start to stock market trading in London this morning, with the FTSE 100 share index up just 6 points (0.06%) to 10,656 points.
Luxury goods maker Burbery (+2.6%) are the top riser, followed by engineering firm Babcock (+1.7%).
