Key events
Lower-income families face 137-year wait for living standards to double, says UK thinktank
It would take 137 years for lower-income families in the UK to see their living standards double at the current rate of growth, according to a thinktank.
A two-decade stagnation in disposable incomes has created a “mood of unease” across the country, the Resolution Foundation says, warning of the risk of “further political disruption” unless pay growth accelerates.
In the 40 years to 2005, the typical disposable income of working-age families in the poorest half of the population doubled, after growing by 1.8% a year on average once adjusted for inflation, according to the thinktank. In the final decade of that period, growth in disposable incomes rose by 4% a year and looked on course to double within 18 years.
Since 2005, however, there has been a significant slowdown. The rate of growth in disposable incomes – measured after taxes and housing costs – has increased by just 0.5% for lower-income families. The Resolution Foundation said: “If progress continues to crawl in the way it has since the mid-2000s, a further doubling would take over 130 years.”
The thinktank defines lower-income families working-age households with disposable incomes below the national median and no one above the state pension age.
UK and US sink to new lows in global index of corruption
The UK and US have sunk to new lows in a global index of corruption, amid a “worrying trend” of democratic institutions being eroded by political donations, cash for access and state targeting of campaigners and journalists.
Experts and businesspeople rated 182 countries based on their perception of corruption levels in the public sector to compile a league table that was bookended by Denmark at the top with the lowest levels of corruption and South Sudan at the bottom.
The Corruption Perceptions Index, organised by the campaign group Transparency International, identified an overall global deterioration, as 31 countries improved their score, while 50 declined.
In particular, the report identified backsliding in established democracies, warning that events during Donald Trump’s presidency and the revelations contained in the Epstein files could fuel further deterioration.
£700m ‘fish disco’ plan could save 90% of marine life, says Hinkley Point C study
Scientists have found that plans to use a “fish disco” to deter migratory marine life from the nearby Hinkley Point C nuclear reactor could help save 90% of fish from the power plant’s water intake pipes – but the solution is set to cost its developer £700m.
EDF Energy, which is building the Hinkley Point C nuclear plant in Somerset, said research it commissioned from scientists at Swansea University had found that using an acoustic deterrent system helped to ward off the “vast majority” of fish it tagged for the experiment.
The costly system, informally referred to as a “fish disco”, is designed to use more than 300 underwater speakers to emit sound pulses to repel fish from the water intake pipes, which will suck in water from the River Severn to help cool Hinkley’s reactors.
EDF said it expected to spend about £700m on the solution, or 1.5% of the total cost of building the £46bn project, which would give Britain’s first new nuclear power plant in a generation “more fish protection than any other power station in the world”.
Bellway shares rise; sees ‘clear signs of improving customer demand’
Bellway, one of Britain’s biggest housebuilders, said it sees “clear signs” of improving demand for housing in the key spring selling season, after economic uncertainty during the autumn weighed on sales.
Bellway shares rose nearly 4% on the news.
It completed 4,702 homes in the six months to 31 January, up from 4,577 a year earlier, at an average selling price of £322,000, up from £310,581.
However, its private reservation rate per outlet per week slipped to 0.47 from 0.51, and its order book at 31 January comprised 4,442 homes against 4,726 a year earlier, with a value of £1.2bn versus £1.3bn.
Jason Honeyman, the chief executive, said Bellway had delivered “a robust first half performance in a challenging market”. He added:
We welcome the government’s reforms to the planning system, however, to make meaningful headway against its ambitious housing targets, the government must also make an early commitment to ease demand-side pressures by introducing essential financial support for first-time buyers.
The government has made an ambitious pledge to build 1.5m homes over the course of this parliament in England, with a focus on social and affordable housing.
Bellway said:
There are clear signs of improving customer demand in the early weeks of the current spring selling season compared to the subdued trading environment through the autumn. While we remain mindful of the sensitivity of customer demand to mortgage affordability and the evolving economic backdrop, we have been encouraged by a pick-up in both reservation rates and leads for our sales teams.
BP shares are among the biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 index this morning, dropping more than 4% in early trading.
Our energy correspondent Jillian Ambrose reports:
BP has halted share buy-backs after reporting weaker annual profits as it prepares to continue a plan to resuscitate its fortunes under a new chief executive.
The company’s underlying earnings fell to just below $7.5bn (£5.5bn) for 2025, from almost $9bn for 2024, after global oil prices fell for a third consecutive year and at the steepest rate since the Covid pandemic.
It said it would suspend quarterly share buy-backs from investors for the first time since the early stages of the pandemic, when a global collapse in oil prices forced the 116-year-old company to a record loss.
The decision to halt share buy-backs to strengthen its balance sheet will pile pressure on the company to win over investors with a new strategic vision after a failed attempt to pursue a green agenda.
Its incoming chief executive, Meg O’Neill – the former head of the Australian oil company Woodside Energy – will take up the role in April as BP’s third boss in as many years and is expected to enforce “rigour” to BP’s turnaround plan. Meanwhile, activist shareholders are continuing to push the company to prepare for a long-term decline in fossil fuel demand.
AstraZeneca predicts steady growth in 2026 on strong cancer drug sales
Britain’s biggest drugmaker AstraZeneca has forecast more strong sales and profit growth this year, on the back of its cancer treatments and newer drugs, as it expands in the US and China.
The FTSE 100 company’s share price rose by more than 2% in early trading.
Pascal Soriot, chief executive since 2012 who has rebuilt the company’s drugs pipeline and turned AZ into the UK’s most valuable listed business, is steering it towards a target of $80bn in annual sales by 2030, despite price cuts in the US and shifting tariff and healthcare policies.
The drugmaker is pushing strongly into the US and China, its top two markets, with $50bn and $15bn investments respectively over the coming years. It listed its shares in New York and they began trading on 2 February, but kept its main listing in London.
While Soriot has reiterated AZ’s commitment to the UK, it has had a prickly relationship with the UK government of late, with a long-running row between industry and ministers over drug pricing and access to new drugs on the NHS.
For example, AZ’s breast cancer infusion Enhertu has not been recommended for use on the NHS in England and Wales by NICE ( National Institute for Health and Care Excellence), the body that assesses new drugs for cost effectivenesss.
The drugmaker scrapped a planned £450m expansion of its vaccine site in Speke near Liverpool a year ago, and paused another £200m investment in Cambridge in September.
The company is predicting that 2026 revenue will grow by a mid-to-high single-digit percentage at constant currency rates, and core profit growth of a low double-digit percentage.
In 2025, sales rose 8% to $58.7bn while profits were up 11%, in line with expectations. Sales in the fourth quarter rose 2% to $15.5bn, slightly better than analysts had expected.
Sales of cancer drugs rose 20% to $7bn in the quarter, but revenue from cardiovascular drugs fell 6% to $3.05bn, party due to generic competition.
Soriot said the drugmaker now has 16 blockbuster medicines.
The momentum across our company is continuing in 2026 and we are looking forward to the results of more than 20 Phase 3 trial [late-stage] readouts this year. We have more than 100 Phase 3 studies ongoing.
Introduction: Global stocks reach record highs; BP annual profits slump 16%
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Global stocks hit a new record in Asian trade, led by a three-day rally in Tokyo where the Nikkei jumped to a fresh peak, after Japan’s conservative governing coalition strengthened its grip on power.
Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic party (LDP) secured a comprehensive victory in Sunday’s election. The Nikkei jumped 2.3% to a new all-time high, and the yen rose for a second day.
The gains pushed the MSCI All-Country World Index 0.2% higher to a new record.
The dollar slipped in Asian trade, and is now flat against a basket of other major currencies.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, said:
So, the US dollar kicked off the week on the back foot, and upcoming US data from today through Friday will determine whether the pressure continues or whether the greenback finds some relief.
US retail sales today are expected to show slowing growth in December — not great news for the most festive month of the year. On Wednesday, the official jobs report is expected to come in soft, with around 70k non-farm job additions, a steady unemployment rate and slower wage growth at 3.6%.
On Friday, the consumer prices index is seen easing to 2.5% from 2.7% previously. If soft labour data is combined with cooling inflation, US [bond] yields and the dollar could remain under pressure — supporting gold, other metals, Bitcoin and equities, particularly small-, mid-cap and value stocks.
BP has posted a 16% drop in annual profits, with earnings hit in the final three months of 2025 because of sharply lower oil prices.
The FTSE 100 firm reported underlying replacement cost profits – its preferred measure – of $7.5bn (£5.5bn) for 2025, down from $8.9bn in 2024.
It came after fourth-quarter profits plunged 30% quarter-on-quarter to $1.5bn, but were up nearly 30% from the same quarter in 2024. BP said it was putting its share buyback programme on hold to strengthen its balance sheet, to invest in oil and gas opportunities.
Carol Howle, who is running the oil giant on an interim basis until its new chief executive Meg O’Neill starts in April, said:
We are reducing capital expenditure for 2026 to the lower end of the guidance range, while continuing to drive down our cost base. We are also taking decisive action to high-grade our portfolio and strengthen our company, including the execution of our $20bn disposal programme and the decision to suspend the share buyback and fully allocate excess cash to our balance sheet.
O’Neill has been described as a “hard-nosed” outsider who will head BP’s pivot away from green energy.
The Agenda
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9.45am GMT: UK Treasury committee to question Treasury and housing ministers on affordability of home ownership
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1.30pm GMT: US Retail sales for December
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2.45pm GMT: UK Business and trade committee hearing on US-UK trade deal
