Hurricane Melissa could be Jamaica’s “storm of the century,” world forecasters say

Kingston, Jamaica — The outer bands of Hurricane Melissa are hitting Jamaica. They’re the leading edge of the catastrophic Category 5 storm — the strongest to lash the island since recordkeeping began 174 years ago.

Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in Jamaica, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said.

Landslides, fallen trees and numerous power outages are being reported, with officials cautioning that the cleanup and damage assessment will be slow.

“For Jamaica, it will be the storm of the century for sure,” said World Meteorological Organization tropical cyclone specialist Anne-Claire Fontan. She told reporters in Geneva on Tuesday she expects catastrophic damage on the island, according to the Reuters news service. 

Melissa could affect 1.5 million people in Jamaica, said International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies official Necephor Mghendi in Geneva, warning there will be a “massive impact,” French news agency AFP reported.

The storm was expected to make landfall early Tuesday and slice diagonally across the island, entering near St. Elizabeth parish in the south and exiting around St. Ann parish in the north, forecasters said. Melissa was likely to be over southeastern Cuba Wednesday morning as an extremely dangerous major hurricane and then reach the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday, still as a hurricane.

Hours before the storm, the government said it had done all it could to prepare as it, too, warned of catastrophic damage.

“There is no infrastructure in the region that can withstand a Category 5,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said. “The question now is the speed of recovery. That’s the challenge.”

Melissa is expected to bring 15 to 30 inches of rain to areas of Jamaica and 6 to 12 inches to southern Hispaniola (the island split into Haiti and the Dominican Republic) through Wednesday, with a total of 40 inches possible in some places, the hurricane center said. “Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely,” the center stressed.

“We will get through it together,” said Evan Thompson, principal director at Jamaica’s meteorological service.  

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall could reach 10 to 20 inches, with as much as 25 inches in some spots from Monday into Wednesday, which could result in “life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides,” the center added.

And total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected today into Wednesday on the southeastern Bahamas, resulting in areas of flash flooding.  

A life-threatening storm surge of up to 13 feet is expected across southern Jamaica, with officials concerned about the impact on some hospitals along the coastline. Health Minister Christopher Tufton said some patients were relocated from the ground floor to the second floor “and (we) hope that will suffice for any surge that will take place.”

The storm already was blamed for seven deaths in the Caribbean, including three in Jamaica, three in Haiti and one in the Dominican Republic, where another person was missing.

Melissa was centered about 55 miles south-southwest of Negril, Jamaica, early Tuesday and about 265 miles southwest of Guantánamo, Cuba. The system had maximum sustained winds of 175 mph, well above the minimum 157 mph needed for it to reach the top of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It was moving north-northeast at 7 mph, marking an expected increase in speed after the storm traveled much more slowly for several days, according to the hurricane center.

Colin Bogle, a Mercy Corps advisor based near Kingston, said most families are sheltering in place despite the government ordering evacuations in flood-prone communities.

“Many have never experienced anything like this before, and the uncertainty is frightening,” he said. “There is profound fear of losing homes and livelihoods, of injury, and of displacement.”

Matthew Samuda, Jamaica’s water and environment minister, said he had more than 50 generators available to deploy after the storm, but warned people to set aside clean water and use it sparingly.

“Every drop will count,” he said.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantánamo and Holguin provinces, while a tropical storm warning was in effect for Las Tunas. Up to 20 inches of rain was forecast for parts of Cuba, along with a significant storm surge along the coast.

Cuban officials said Monday that they were evacuating more than 600,000 people from the region, including Santiago, the island’s second-largest city.

Melissa also has drenched the southern regions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with a tropical storm warning still in effect for Haiti.

A hurricane warning was in effect for the southeastern and central Bahamas, and a tropical storm warning was issued for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

The U.S. State Department issued natural disaster travel alerts for Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti and the Bahamas on Monday, urging U.S. citizens to consider leaving while flights were still available, or be prepared to shelter in place.

And CBS News confirmed that a Hurricane Hunters aircraft from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration was forced on Monday to abort its mission when it experienced “severe turbulence” in the storm’s southwestern eyewall.