Welcome and happy Friday, baseball fans! Here at Best Bets Central, we went 1-1 last week, but it was a profitable day because we hit our home run prop at +425 (thank you, Riley Greene). Let’s keep the good times rolling here this week.
Now let’s get to those Friday night lines.
The odds are from BetMGM.
Rays to win (-135)
This line was -125 in the early hours Friday morning, and hopefully, SportsLine subscribers noticed that I was able to lock in that price and get it themselves. I still like it here at -135, though, and I’d like it up to -150. The Rays are road warriors at this point, having taken six straight road games. They’ve won 10 of 13 overall and look excellent, pushing the Yankees for first place in the AL East.
Ryan Pepiot takes the ball for the Rays and he has a 2.30 ERA in his last 11 starts. He’s winning at home and on the road, both, stymying most offenses he sees. The Orioles, meanwhile, after a brief stretch of hot baseball, have lost four of five, and they’ve been shut out twice in there.
Tomoyuki Sugano is on the hill for the Orioles and he has a 6.39 ERA in his last three starts. He’s a pitch-to-contact guy and a team like the Rays with power and speed can exploit that.
The Rays will win.
The Diamondbacks have won five of seven. They lost Wednesday on the road to the White Sox and then flew home and had Thursday off. They’ll now get the Marlins in Chase Field. The Marlins have won four in a row and they aren’t good enough to keep up that level of play, especially coming off a sweep in San Francisco. It’s an easy “even out” game here to see the D-backs crush the Marlins.
Merrill Kelly is on the mound for Arizona and he’s better at home than on the road. The Marlins start youngster Eury Perez, who is coming off Tommy John surgery this year and has a 6.17 ERA in three starts. The D-backs feast at home and it’s a prime spot for a big offensive game.
The most likely outcome, to me, is a multi-run Diamondbacks win, so we’ll gladly grab the plus money on the run line.
Kyle Tucker returns to Houston and last season in Daikin Park, he hit .320 with a .694 slugging percentage. He homered 19 times in 60 games there.
Tucker recently went through a dry spell in terms of home runs, but he’s now homered three times in his last six games. Overall, he’s hitting .361/.439/.694 in his last nine games.
The Astros’ starting pitcher is Brandon Walter — out of necessity due to rotation injuries — and he gave up seven runs on nine hits (two homers) last time out against the Angels. He’s a lefty, so it’s a lefty-lefty matchup, but Tucker has six home runs in 94 at-bats against left-handed pitchers this season, meaning it isn’t a big problem. Plus, Walter isn’t going to pitch the whole game.
Futures play: Brewers to make playoffs (+110)
The Brewers are three games behind the Cubs in the NL Central and could repeat as division champs. They don’t have to win the Central, though, to make the playoffs. There’s one sure-thing Wild Card on the NL side and that’s either the Phillies or Mets, whichever team doesn’t win the NL East. If the first-place teams hold their spots, there will then be two Wild Card teams from the mix of Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, Padres, Giants and Diamondbacks.
Given that the offense has more upside coming from the likes of William Contreras and Jackson Chourio, along with the talented, young arms in the rotation, I really like the Brewers moving forward. They are a more sure bet than the Cardinals or Reds in the Central and the non-Dodgers West teams have all proven themselves inconsistent and flawed.
I believe the Brewers take home the second NL Wild Card this season. I like the plus money on this bet.
