Last year, the SEC set a record with 14 teams in the NCAA Tournament bracket, a mark that wasn’t nearly touched when the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket was released. The SEC will be well represented again with 10 teams, but some are 2026 March Madness underdogs in need of pulling off NCAA Tournament upsets to go on a deep 2026 March Madness run. The SEC boasts the reigning national champions, the Florida Gators, as one of two SEC schools to make last year’s Final Four. How far should you place SEC schools like Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas when making 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks?
Is this the year to build NCAA Tournament 2026 brackets around the SEC, or could the Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 reign supreme for 2026 March Madness picks? Before you make your 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Two years ago, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including calling both 9-seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis, and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past seven tournaments.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s championship run in 2024. It nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.
Top 2026 March Madness bracket upset picks
One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 5 Vanderbilt defeats No. 4 Nebraska to advance to the Sweet 16. The model expects both teams to survive the opening round and square off in an SEC vs. Big Ten battle over the weekend. Nebraska climbed as high as No. 5 in the nation during its 20-0 start to the season, but beginning with its loss to Michigan to end the perfect record, the Cornhuskers are just 6-6 over their last 12 contests. Nebraska has allowed at least 74 points in five of its last 12 games, after doing so just three times over its 20-0 start.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has been on a roll over the last few weeks, scoring 91 points against No. 4 Florida in a 17-point victory to reach the SEC Championship Game. The Commodores lost in the SEC final, but Vanderbilt’s No. 12 scoring offense can run teams out of the gym. The Commodores average 86.4 points per game this season, compared to a defensively focused Cornhuskers team that ranks 17th in scoring defense but 114th in scoring offense. The model is backing the offensively gifted Commodores in what it projects as a likely second-round matchup.
Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 10 Texas A&M knocks off No. 7 Saint Mary’s. The Aggies have the No. 4 scoring offense in the nation, averaging 87.7 points per game, and the SEC squad may simply have too much offensive firepower for Saint Mary’s to keep pace with. Saint Mary’s is 107th in scoring, relying on a top-10 scoring defense. However, athletes like those at Texas A&M are at a different level to the average competition in the West Coast Conference that the Gaels played the majority of the season.
Texas A&M has six players averaging more than 10 points per game this season, and that can be a problem for Saint Mary’s. The Gaels are no stranger to playing in March Madness, but they were a No. 5 seed in three of their last four tournament appearances. This Saint Mary’s team may have a tough time against the Aggies’ scoring, leading the model to project Texas A&M to pull off the upset. See which other 2026 March Madness upsets and matchups to target here.
How to make 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that’s nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.
