Week 8 will feature a matchup between the Titans and Colts that has one of the biggest line moves from the initial summer opener I can remember that isn’t affected by injury. Currently, the Colts are 14-point favorites at most books. When the lines opened in the summer, Indy was laying just 3.5 points in the matchup. At the time, Anthony Richardson was expected to be the starting quarterback before Daniel Jones won the job heading into the season, but the double-digit swing has almost entirely come down to how incredible the Colts have performed over the first seven weeks of the season rather than any key injuries.
You’ll only potentially see a swing like that from the previous week’s lookahead to the current number when there’s an injury to an elite quarterback. The Ravens went from 9.5-point favorites against the Texans to underdogs a few weeks back, for example. The Jayden Daniels injury hasn’t had quite the same effect, but we have seen a seven-point move from the Chiefs -5.5 lookahead line last week to Chiefs -12.5 now that it’s been announced that Marcus Mariota will start on Monday night.
That line is around where the Chiefs closed hosting the Raiders the previous week, so the market is treating the Jayden Daniels-less Commanders with a similar value to a Raiders team that didn’t have Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers and Kolton Miller. Perhaps there’s a positive adjustment for the Chiefs at play after they won that game 31-0, scoring more points than the number of plays run by Las Vegas. Washington also lost its top pass rusher in the loss to the Cowboys, throwing even more into doubt how competitive the defense can be.
Another major line move involves the Jets-Bengals game, with Cincy going from 2.5-point favorites on the lookahead to 6.5-point favorites after upsetting the Steelers while the Jets offense struggled yet again. That means in just two weeks, the Bengals went from 14-point underdogs in Green Bay in Joe Flacco’s first start to nearly touchdown favorites at home against potentially the league’s worst team, a swing of 20.5 points. Even considering the flip in home field, that’s a massive swing considering the gap between the first and last teams in my current power ratings is 13.5 points, while the betting market ratings at Inpredictable have that gap at 14 points (and neither system is putting the Jets at No. 32). That massive movement in two weeks is one reason I locked the Jets in as a pick as soon as I saw a sportsbook give out +7.
Let’s take a look at the consensus Week 9 lookahead lines and then share our best bets to lock in early.
Week 9 lookahead lines
Ravens (-7.5) at Dolphins, 50
Panthers at Packers (-10.5), 44
Bears (-1.5) at Bengals, 48.5
Broncos (-1.5) at Texans, 38.5
Colts (-2.5) at Steelers, 49
Chargers (-7.5) at Titans, 43.5
Falcons at Patriots (-2.5), 45.5
49ers (-3) at Giants, 46.5
Vikings at Lions (-7.5), 48.5
Saints at Rams (-12), 45.5
Jaguars (-3) at Raiders, 44.5
Chiefs (-1.5) at Bills, 50.5
Seahawks (-2.5) at Commanders, 46.5
Cardinals at Cowboys (-3), 52.5
Week 9 lookahead picks
Panthers at Packers
The Packers are still rated as the one of the best teams in the league but they haven’t covered a spread since Week 2, continuing to fall short of expectations as they let teams in through the back door week after week (or in the case of the Cardinals game, never pull away in the first place). The Panthers have covered five of their last six, which includes securing their first road win of the season last week. I don’t expect this line to move if the Panthers struggle at home against the Bills on Sunday, but I also believe it’s a good matchup for them to be competitive once again as the Bills rank last in yards per rush allowed. If they keep the game close, I don’t see how this can open above 10 on Sunday night prior to the Packers facing the Steelers, a game that if they lose would likely drop this from the lookahead number as well.
Bears at Bengals
Last week saw a Jets-Bengals matchup that had the potential to make a big move off the lookahead of Bengals -2.5 in one way or another. I had it going in the Jets’ direction, but the results pushed it the other way, inflating the Bengals to nearly touchdown favorites. This matchup has similar potential, and if the Bengals dominate the Jets while the Bears get rolled by the Ravens, which is what the current Week 8 lines suggest, the Bengals will probably be favored here. But I’m expecting the opposite with the Bears staying competitive against the Ravens defense even if Lamar Jackson is able to play, while the Bengals don’t seem likely to win by a big margin to me. This week’s lookahead lines have a couple of three-point road favorites in the 49ers (at Giants) and Jaguars (at Raiders), and this feels like a similar matchup to me, with the Bears falling between the 49ers and Jaguars and the Bengals between the Giants and Raiders.
Falcons at Patriots
Both these teams are touchdown favorites in Week 8, so this line may not see any movement on the Sunday rerelease. But I think a Patriots win is more impressive considering the two opponents in those games faced each other in Week 7, with the Browns dominating the Dolphins. The market could also see the Falcons on the road in this matchup and quickly bet it to -3 with how they performed away from home against the 49ers and Panthers. I currently have this line at -3, and the Patriots have one of the worst home-field advantage ratings for me based on my analysis of recent seasons, so the market number may be even higher if I have those teams rated correctly.
Other notes: I’ll be interested to see what the market does with Jaguars-Raiders upon rerelease, considering those teams are off this week. The line of Jaguars -3 seems high if you expect the Raiders to get reinforcements back after the bye, as Jacksonville was terrible in its final game heading into the break. The Broncos-Texans game currently sees Denver as road favorites, and that probably won’t change with the state of Houston’s offense heading into Week 8. But what if the Broncos offense again looks out of rhythm in what’s supposed to be an incredibly easy matchup against the Cowboys? That unit was abysmal for seven quarters before finally finding success late against the Giants and if it goes back to those struggles in this matchup, I can see the Texans tipping to favored status with the expectation Nico Collins will be cleared from concussion protocol by this game.
