Only months after Labour’s landslide general election victory, a poll has shown that some of the party’s big beasts would lose their seats if a vote were held now.
The survey was conducted by think tank More in Common, and commissioned by The Sunday Times. It is based on data collected between October 31 and December 16.
The study found that Labour would lose nearly 200 of the 411 seats it won in July.
These include significant losses to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, as well as Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives, and the SNP north of the border.
Seven Cabinet ministers would suffer humiliating losses, researchers suggest, including the Deputy Prime Minister and Housing Secretary, Angela Rayner.
More in Common said when it released the poll results: “The model estimates that an election today would produce a highly fragmented and unstable Parliament with 5 parties holding over 30 seats.
“While Labour would still emerge on top, they would have barely a third of the total number of seats, and a lead of just six seats over the Conservatives, while Reform UK emerges as the third largest party on 72 seats.”
List of Labour Cabinet members that would lose their seat
- Wes Streeting, Health Secretary (Ilford North: Independant gain from Labour, 3.3% margin)
- John Healey, Defence Secretary ( Rawmarsh and Conisbrough: Reform UK gain from Labour, 11.1% margin)
- Jonathan Reynolds, Business Secretary (Stalybridge and Hyde: Reform UK gain from Labour, 0.2% margin)
- Bridget Phillipson, Education Sectretary (Houghton and Sunderland South: Reform UK gain from Labour, 9% margin)
- Yvette Cooper, Home Secretary (Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley: Reform UK gain from Labour, 8% margin)
- Angela Rayner, Deputy Prime Minister and Housing Secretary (Ashton-under-Lyne: Reform UK gain from Labour, 2.8% margin)
- Ed Miliband, Energy Secretary (Doncaster North: Reform UK gain from Labour, 2.8% margin)
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “With potentially four and a half years to go, this model is not a prediction of what would happen at the next General Election. Instead, however, it confirms the fragmentation of British politics that we saw in July’s election has only accelerated in Labour’s six months in office.
“The First Past the Post system is struggling to deal with that degree of fragmentation, which is why our model shows so many seats on a three-way knife edge, and many being won on exceptionally small shares of the vote.
“There is no doubt that many voters have found the start of the Starmer Government disappointing and Labour’s estimated vote share would drop significantly were there to be an election tomorrow. Far from the usual electoral honeymoon, our model estimates that Labour would lose nearly 200 of the seats they won in July’s election.
“While the new Government is still in its infancy it is clear that decisions such as means testing the winter fuel allowance and other budget measures have landed badly. The pressure from the public is now on the Government to deliver.”
But Mr Tryl went onto say that it’s not just Labour which would face huge challenges saying that the party would be heading for its second worst share of the vote in history.
He added: “Instead, the big beneficiaries of the unpopularity of both main parties are Reform UK with our model estimating their number of seats will increase 14 fold. Strikingly, the Party appears to have established two particularly strong regional bases of support – one in South Yorkshire/North Nottinghamshire and the other in Tyne and Wear.”
