On a college football weekend that brought plenty of losses for ranked teams, some of the most impactful results were the close calls that went the way of the favorites on a nervy Week 11 Saturday. Indiana and Oregon both faced late deficits on the road but emerged victorious, preserving their top-10 status and adding to what should be a mostly calm week-to-week adjustment for voters in the AP Top 25 poll.
But should that be the case?
Texas A&M went on the road as well, but unlike Indiana and Oregon, the Aggies did not trail late. In fact, they never tailed at all. Mike Elko’s group came out of the off week with an 8-0 record and handled business the way that title contenders do — by grabbing control of the game early and never letting go. Every time Missouri found a little bit of spark, the Aggies had a response, and now as we head into the final stretch of the regular season, it’s worth considering whether Texas A&M is more deserving of consideration for the No. 1 spot.
Last week’s voting had Ohio State as the rock-solid No. 1 team in the AP Top 25 poll with 55 first-place votes and 1,633 voting points. Indiana had the second-most first-place votes with 11, but the 1,591 voting points was closer to No. 1 than it was to No. 3, where Texas A&M checked in with just one first-place vote and 1,523 voting points.
The Buckeyes aren’t likely to be displaced from No. 1, but on a weekend where Indiana faced getting knocked off by an interim coach, it’s worth considering whether Texas A&M has an argument for moving up in the rankings. At the very least it seems certain that the Aggies will cut into the gap with the two teams at the top, and that instead of a debate for No. 1 the voting points will entertain a debate for No. 2 heading into Week 12.
Bowl projections: Texas Tech replaces BYU in College Football Playoff bracket, Oregon avoids chaos
Brad Crawford
Further down in the rankings, outside the top 10, we are projecting a good bit of chaos with Virginia, Louisville and Washington all taking unexpected losses. Also, with this being the first set of AP rankings since the College Football Playoff Selection Committee released its top 25, we will be monitoring the cat-and-mouse game between the voters and the committee. The selection committee made some choices — like ranking Pitt and Iowa or putting Texas ahead of Oklahoma — that did not align with the AP voters, and now we will see if there’s a reaction.
Here’s how we project the new AP Top 25 poll to look on Sunday after the results from Week 11 in college football:
1. Ohio State (Last week — 1): No change at the top of the rankings for the Buckeyes, who got a huge day from Jeremiah Smith (10 catches, 137 yards, one touchdown) as the highlight of a 24-point road win at Purdue. Next step for Ohio State is a two-game home stand against UCLA and Rutgers before the regular-season finale at rival Michigan in Ann Arbor.
2. Indiana (2): The Hoosiers may have looked more human with their near-upset on the road at Penn State, but the team also looks heroic following the Heisman moment from Fernando Mendoza with the game-winning touchdown to Omar Cooper, who himself has an argument for catch of the year. A few ballots could entertain swapping Indiana for Texas A&M, but we’re projecting it won’t be enough of a consensus opinion to lead to a change in the rankings.
3. Texas A&M (3): There will be some momentum and a legitimate argument for Texas A&M as the No. 1 team in the country following a 21-point road win against ranked Missouri. The Aggies are now 9-0 and have a win against Notre Dame to pair with six SEC victories, giving strength to the argument for some upward movement in the rankings. The issue is displacing either the No. 1 or No. 2 team after a weekend of wins. The Aggies will cut into the voting points deficit, for sure, but we’re projecting it’s not enough for a swap at the top.
4. Alabama (4): No major changes in the rankings for Alabama after a lower-scoring win against LSU. The Crimson Tide are 8-1 on the year and 6-0 in SEC play, but the path to Atlanta includes some tricky spots left that include a showdown with Oklahoma next week and the Iron Bowl at the end of the season at Auburn.
5. Georgia (5): There are head-to-head results that have Georgia pinned into a pretty specific spot in the rankings, but it’s hard not to see this stock price going up following a 20-point win on the road at Mississippi State. Kirby Smart’s team caught the upset-minded Bulldogs between playing Florida and Texas yet showed up in Starkville with hammers ready to impose their will.
6. Oregon (6): Beating Iowa at its own game will remain a cornerstone in Oregon’s 2025 campaign, as the Ducks had to rally with a handful of key offensive contributors out of the lineup and find ways to win in the rain in Kinnick Stadium. Escaping Iowa City with a win is a victory that keeps all of Oregon’s big-picture goals on track, but it won’t move the needle in terms of a shakeup in the rankings given results elsewhere.
7. Ole Miss (7): Voters won’t react too much one way or the other after a 49-0 win against The Citadel. Up next for the Rebels is the home finale against Florida next Saturday night, followed by a week off and then the Egg Bowl on Nov. 28 to close out the regular season.
8. Texas Tech (9): We are projecting a slight bump up for the Red Raiders following an impressive win against a top-10 opponent, handing BYU its first loss of the season by a 22-point margin. The Red Raiders could jump Ole Miss as well, but last week’s balloting had a significant enough gap between those two teams to think a swap is in order after a pair of wins.
9. Notre Dame (10): No major changes after Notre Dame bowled over Navy. The Fighting Irish have now won seven straight games and continue to show little in terms of wavering form as the pressure mounts with each week to win or face falling out of the playoff picture.
10. Texas (13): The Longhorns were off in Week 11 and will be back in action next week at Georgia. As we mentioned earlier, our projection for a move up is one of the few spots where the AP voters could tail the committee’s actions. Texas and Oklahoma were separated by just 15 voting points last week, and since both are 7-2 and the CFP committee put the Longhorns ahead, we’re projecting the AP voters to follow suit.
11. Oklahoma (11): The Sooners were off in Week 11 and will be back in action at Alabama next Saturday.
12. Vanderbilt (15): Trailing by double digits at home, Vanderbilt turned to Diego Pavia to help keep the Commodores’ postseason hopes alive and he delivered. Pavia finished with 377 yards passing, 112 yards rushing and four total touchdowns in the 45-38 overtime win against Auburn to help Vanderbilt improve to 8-2 on the season.
13. Georgia Tech (16): The Yellow Jackets were off in Week 11 and will be back in action next week at Boston College.
14. BYU (8): There is an easy spot to project for BYU’s drop after the loss, because while the Cougars were arguably undervalued as an undefeated team outside the top five, they do have a key head-to-head win against another top-20 team in Utah. It’s possible the respect for Texas Tech and the quality loss leaves BYU as high as No. 12, but for now, we’ll project it’s an easy slide into the slot above the Utes for most voters.
15. Utah (17): The Utes were off in Week 11 and will be back in action next week at Baylor.
16. Miami (18): A slow start against Syracuse seemed to spell doom for a Hurricanes squad that needed a spark, and maybe they found it with Carson Beck’s touchdown reception. Miami poured it on late and ultimately won by 28 points to keep their spot in the top 25.
17. USC (20): Friday night saw the Trojans handle business against Northwestern, tightening up after a loose start and pulling away for a 38-17 win. Now at 7-2 with a win over Michigan, the Trojans have a path to more upward movement with games against Iowa and Oregon in the coming weeks.
18. Michigan (21): The Wolverines were off in Week 11 and will be back in action next week at Northwestern.
19. Tennessee (23): The Vols were off in Week 11 and will be back in action next week against New Mexico State.
20. Cincinnati (25): The Bearcats were off in Week 11 and will be back in action next week against Arizona.
21. Tulane (NR): The Green Wave bounced back from a stunning double-digit loss at UTSA with a strong performance taking down Memphis on the road. Now at 7-2 overall, Tulane has a complex resume with a 2-1 record against power conference opponents, a ranked win (at Memphis) and one bad loss. Making the American title game, which is the key to making the College Football Playoff, is much more likely after the win against the Tigers. Now will the AP voters note that and make a G5 swap on their ballots? It’s certainly possible.
22. James Madison (NR): Look for the College Football Playoff race to get another contender when it comes to potential conference champions, because JMU is now 8-1 overall and 6-0 in conference play after a 12-point road win against Marshall. If the Dukes win out and claim the Sun Belt title, they’ll be a 12-1 team with the only loss coming to Louisville. What’s left are home dates against App State and Washington State followed the regular-season finale at Coastal Carolina.
23. Pittsburgh (NR): The Panthers were off in Week 11 but were 28th in last week’s balloting and showed up in the College Football Playoff Rankings as one of the top 25 teams in the country, according to the selection committee. That could bring a spotlight that wouldn’t otherwise be on Pitt during an off week, and when looking for two-loss teams to consider, the Panthers have a solid argument.
24. Houston (NR): The Cougars were just inside the top 25 two weeks ago before a stunning loss to West Virginia, so it’s not going to be a far reach to see voters grab a team when looking for options in the 20s. Houston doesn’t have many great wins, it is 8-2 after winning in Week 11 at UCF and one of those losses came to a Texas Tech team who will be moving up on voters’ ballots.
25. San Diego State (NR): The Aztecs are currently in action at Hawaii.
Projected to drop out: No. 12 Virginia, No. 14 Louisville, No. 19 Missouri, No. 22 Memphis, No. 24 Washington
