Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown took very different paths to their first UFC Fight Night main event. Bonfim is a relatively new addition to the UFC roster; meanwhile, Brown celebrates a decade with the promotion in January. They collide on Saturday night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Bonfim (18-1) is defending his ranking, but arguably has more to prove than his opponent. Bonfim became a top 15 welterweight off a controversial decision win over longtime contender Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Two years ago, nearly to the day, he was knocked out by Nicolas Dalby. A close decision win over Brown, an unranked fighter approaching 10 years with the promotion, won’t do him much good. Bonfim needs a standout performance.
“If I let Brown control the distance and keep the fight standing, he has an advantage, that’s his game. But not with me,” Bonfim told CBS Sports through a Portuguese interpreter. ” I’m very comfortable exchanging punches. I know he’s afraid and weary of my ground game.”
Jon Jones rips Tom Aspinall’s skills after UFC 321: ‘His wrestling and jiu-jitsu are incredibly overrated’
Shakiel Mahjouri
Brown (20-6) is determined to make the most of his first main event. He’s a promising contender, but every time he builds steam, his momentum gets cut short by guys like Belal Muhammad, Jack Della Maddalena and Vicente Luque. But all that experience has given him a level head. Brown is coming off a KO win over Dalby, the only person to beat Bonfim, but he isn’t putting much stock in it. Brown knows exactly what Bonfim did wrong, but he can’t guarantee he’ll make those mistakes again.
“I know exactly what he lost that fight and what happened. I can’t assume he’s in that same place. He was pushed, overwhelmed, got tired, and was stopped…” Brown told CBS Sports. “I can’t bank on him making those same mistakes. For all I know, he’s in the best shape of his life, and when he shows up he’ll be ready to do 10 rounds.”
There isn’t a lot to write home about on the undercard. Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos is solid matchmaking. Neither fighter is currently ranked, but they’re veteran fighters who’ve mixed it up with the best. Simon notably holds a controversial win over reigning UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili and has fought former WEC champ Urijah Faber. Barcelos mixed it up with title challenger Umar Nurmagomedov in recent years.
Rising flyweights are set for the co-main event when Joseph Morales takes on Matt Schnell. Morales is fresh off winning The Ultimate Fighter 33 in August with a submission of Alibi Idiris in August. He had a previous run with UFC in 2017 and 2018 before three years of inactivity. He posted a 1-2 record in that time, including a TKO loss to former champion Deiveson Figueiredo. Schnell, meanwhile, has been a fixture since 2016 where he’s posted a 7-7, 1 NC record. He ended a three-fight losing skid in April with a decision win over Jimmy Flick.
Below is the rest of the fight card for Saturday, with the latest odds before we get to a prediction and pick on the main event.
UFC Fight Night card, odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
| Gabriel Bonfim -190 | Randy Brown +160 | Welterweight |
| Joseph Morales -420 | Matt Schnell +330 | Flyweight |
| Uros Medic -150 | Muslim Salikhov +125 | Welterweight |
| Ismael Bonfim -195 | Chris Padilla +165 | Lightweight |
| Ricky Simon -180 | Raoni Barcelos +150 | Bantamweight |
| Marco Tulio -185 | Christian Leroy Duncan +155 | Middleweight |
UFC Fight Night viewing information
Date: Nov. 8 | Start time: 7 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: UFC Apex — Las Vegas
TV channel: ESPN+
Prediction
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown: Don’t let Bonfim’s ranking fool you; he has something to prove. Many believe “Wonderboy” beat Bonfim. Dalby knocked him out. They were Bonfim’s two most experienced opponents. Brown is another such veteran, having faced world-class competition for over a decade. He’s fully capable of exploiting whatever holes Bonfim gives him, especially should he wilt over five rounds. Skill-wise, I lean towards Bonfim. He has fantastic submissions, judicious wrestling, and responsible striking defense. Thompson outstruck Bonfim in totality, but their significant strike outputs were almost identical.
Last year, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos took down Brown four times. The year before that, Della Maddalena submitted Brown — one of only two submission wins in the champ’s 20-fight pro career. There are conditions we should acknowledge in those two fights: Brown still beat Dos Santos, and Della Maddalena locked in the rear-naked choke off a knockdown. The fight benefits Brown the longer it goes. Ultimately, Bonfim shines more where Brown struggles. The inverse isn’t quite as true. I’ll take Bonfim, hesitantly, by submission. Bonfim via SUB2
