Key events
Most vulnerable will be hit hardest by price cap rise, campaigners warn
The most vulnerable households will be hit the hardest by the higher energy price cap, charities and campaigners have warned this morning.
Caroline Abrahams, director at the charity Age UK, says:
We know that today’s price cap increase is the shape of worse to come when the next price cap is announced, because by then the impact of the war in the Middle East will really be feeding through into prices.
Unfortunately, these elevated energy costs due to the war will hit just at the time when pensioners will need their heating the most, as we head into winter. This is why it is so important that the government puts together an effective plan now to help older people on low incomes to get through the coming winter unscathed. It’s imperative that we avoid a repeat of the 2024/5 winter, when millions of older people were cold in their own homes.
Support has failed to keep pace with rising energy costs and is insufficient for the scale of the financial challenge that significant numbers of people will face this winter. Age UK believes that the government should increase the value of the Warm Home Discount scheme for this winter from £150 to at least £200. They should also widen the eligibility beyond those in receipt of means-tested benefits to cover households on low incomes, so support can reach older people who are struggling but who currently miss out.
Simon Francis, of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition says:
Behind every energy price rise are households whose direct debits are about to rise, families whose energy debt is harder to clear, and pensioners whose summer is already overshadowed by the winter ahead. Meanwhile, the energy industry has posted more than £3 billion in profits from its UK operations in the first three months of 2026.
With energy costs rising over the summer, any chance households had to reduce energy debts or build up reserves before the winter heating season will be wiped out.
We are also worried that energy firms will now factor higher costs into direct debit calculations, meaning many households will feel the financial impact of winter long before October.
That concern is sharpened by forecasts suggesting the October cap could remain at a similar level, leaving millions of households facing an extremely difficult year ahead if nothing changes.
…The government cannot wait until September to act. It must confirm what support will be available, address the fact that relying on gas for heating is a dead end as the North Sea runs dry and chart a path for households to find a permanent way off the gas price rollercoaster.
Adam Scorer, chief executive of National Energy Action, says:
As always, the most vulnerable will bear the brunt. Low-income households are stuck on this rollercoaster of global energy prices. For them this is not a one-off price increase. It is an unrelenting pressure that builds and builds and builds, resulting in unprecedented numbers owing around £5.5 billion in energy debt and rationing their energy usage.
With another tough winter coming, and bills expected to stay high, now is the time for the government to set out targeted interventions to help those on the lowest incomes afford their energy and to clear their debt. The government can also do more to streamline referral routes for fuel poverty support for both households with young children and those with serious health conditions.
Elevated energy prices ‘likely this winter’, says Ofgem boss
Ofgem boss Tim Jarvis, speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, says the higher price cap for July has been driven “almost entirely” by the rise in global gas prices triggered by the war in the Middle East, and that the price cap for October depends on progress to resolve the conflict.
He said:
It will depend to a large extent on what happens in the Middle East and the progress of any measures to try and get a peace deal and then the speed with which the straits reopen and how quickly the market recovers, but it is unfortunately now looking like a more long term disruption to markets than we might originally have hoped.
…It is a time where it gives people an opportunity to try and prepare for what may be coming in the winter and they might do that by trying to fix in the market for example, and try and insulate them against some of that volatility.
You’ve obviously got the risk there that if prices do come down, but it is likely that we are going to see elevated prices this winter. We’re not at the moment seeing the sort of price rises that we saw following the Russia-Ukraine war, but it remains a very uncertain situation.
Expect even higher bills this year, analyst says
Higher energy bills from July will be unwelcome news for most, but leading analyst Cornwall Insight warns that “the more pressig concern will be what follows”.
Its forecast for the October to December period puts the cap at £1,899 per year, which would represent a further 2% rise on the July cap and would coincide with the arrival of a colder season.
The October cap will not be confirmed until August.
Dr Craig Lowrey, principalconsultant at Cornwall Insight, says:
The rise in July energy prices will be felt across households already stretched by the cost of living, and even though it was widely anticipated, that does not make it any easier to bear. Even more concerning is October, where our forecasts are already pointing to a slight rise landing just as people start to turn their heating back on for winter.
A lot of people assume that if the conflict in the Middle East ended tomorrow, prices would return to their pre-conflict levels fairly quickly. However, that may be overly optimistic. The damage to infrastructure, the disruption to supply chains and the erosion of market confidence will not unwind overnight, and the impacts could be felt in bills for longer than many expect.
That uncertainty makes the outlook for October particularly hard to call. We are only days into the three month time period Ofgem uses to set the wholesale element of the October cap, so things can and likely will shift, but households should not be banking on lower bills later in the year. The Government will face real pressure to spell out what support is available – and to whom – before winter. For a lot of people this is not some abstract economic question, it is a decision about how warm they can afford to keep their home.
What we do know is while some form of short-term support will be needed, without a longer-term move away from energy imports, whose prices can shift dramatically, we are going to keep having this conversation.”
Introduction: UK energy price cap rises by £200
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
The energy price cap in Great Britain will rise by 13% from July, the regulator Ofgem has announced this morning.
It means households will face the steepest summer rise in energy charges in four years after months of soaring market prices.
Under the cap, the average gas and electricity bill will increase to the equivalent of £1,862 a year (up from £1,641) from July until the end of September to take account of the rise in global energy market prices caused by the war on Iran.
The energy regulator for Great Britain, Ofgem, determines the maximum a supplier can charge for each unit of gas and electricity based on the cost of supplying energy to homes, including the average wholesale market costs in the months leading up to the start of each new cap. The cap also incorporates the maximum daily standing charge (the flat daily fees levied for a connection regardless of how much or little energy people use).
Tim Jarvis, Ofgem CEO, says:
Today’s price change reflects continued volatility in global energy markets. This means higher wholesale gas prices, driven by ongoing conflict in the Middle East, is impacting the price we pay for energy.
We understand many will be concerned about rising prices. While energy use typically falls over the summer months, there are still practical steps households can take to manage costs, including exploring fixed tariffs or changing their payment method. Smart meter customers can also take advantage of half price or cheap electricity at the weekends.
While our energy supplies remain secure, the best way to limit this exposure is by investing in our energy network. That’s why we’re unlocking the funding needed for the biggest transformation of our lifetime to deliver a system that is secure, resilient, and works for consumers across Great Britain.”
The agenda
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5am BST: European car sales data for April
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7am BST: Ofgem price cap for 1 July to 30 September
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5pm BST: Deadline for any legal challenge of FCA motor finance compensation to be filed

