NFL 2026 QB projections for Kyler Murray, Malik Willis, Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins

Two years ago, Kyler Murray sought growth after solid returns from a major injury; the Titans were preparing to trade Malik Willis, who had fallen out of favor; Tua Tagovailoa was coming off the best year of his career, having led the league in passing and led the Dolphins to the playoffs; and Kirk Cousins, coming off a torn Achilles, cashed in on a four-year, $180 million deal with the Falcons, which subsequently surprised him by drafting Michael Penix Jr.

What a difference two years make. This offseason, Arizona unceremoniously dumped Murray, and he landed in Minnesota. Willis landed in South Beach. Tagovailoa is in a quarterback battle in Atlanta. Cousins is now mentoring No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza — while hoping to prove he can still play, too — in Las Vegas.

The bets on these four quarterbacks are all small in their individual ways. Because Murray and Tagovailoa are still making so much off their Cardinals and Dolphins extensions, respectively, their new teams are paying hardly anything. Willis received significant money — three years and $67.5 million, still relatively cheap for a veteran starter — but that certainly wouldn’t stop Miami from pursuing a quarterback in the loaded 2027 class if he doesn’t perform. And Cousins? Well, the sooner Mendoza is deemed ready, the better.

But all four bets are significant in their own way, too. Is Murray the missing piece for a team that went 9-8 last year despite dismal quarterback play? Can Willis prove he’s not just a small-sample wonder and be a central piece going forward? Can Tagovailoa be the guy to finally elevate an offense that features Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts? Can Cousins keep things on track before Mendoza takes over?

NFL quarterbacks have no place to hide, whether they’re leading Super Bowl contenders, leading rebuilds or simply battling for a starting spot. These four are no exception.

Kyler Murray

• Rushing upside + mobility
• Potential stability … if healthy
• Big stylistic transition

Murray has been one of the most polarizing, mercurial players for most of his NFL career for his play, his play style, his injuries and his demeanor.

Murray spent the first four years of his career in Kliff Kingsbury’s shotgun, quick-hitting spread, carried over from college. For the last three years, he was in Drew Petzing’s offense, which emphasized more under-center and play-action concepts. It never gelled. He also played in just 30 of the 51 games available over the past three years.

What’s funny is that for all the ups and downs of his career, he’s generally been steadily average — or slightly above it — overall. His career expected points added per dropback is 0.05. By definition, zero is average. He has only been below zero once, in 2023, when, coming off an ACL injury, he was at … -0.01.

For reference, the Vikings’ collection of quarterbacks last year was at -0.16, only ahead of the Titans and Browns. J.J. McCarthy was at -0.13. While Murray hasn’t officially beaten out McCarthy, one would think he is the favorite.

That means Kevin O’Connell accentuating Murray’s strengths and Murray evolving are critical. The Vikings were under center on nearly 45% of their snaps last year, one of the league’s highest rates; Murray’s career under-center rate is 15%. Murray is on the smaller side, and he, like many quarterbacks who have played in the past half-dozen years, didn’t come up as an under-center, turn-your-back-to-the-defense guy.

That doesn’t mean he can’t do it, though. In fact, over the past three years, he ranks eighth in yards per attempt (8.9) on under-center passes. The arm talent, which has never been a question, can shine.

Arguably, Murray’s bigger adjustment, though, will be where his passes go. He has always been an outside-the-numbers thrower when going downfield. Only 35% of his career attempts at least 10 yards downfield have been thrown between the numbers. That ranks 20th out of 23 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 2,000 passes since 2019.

Minnesota’s offense under O’Connell has been at its best when Sam Darnold or Kirk Cousins have ripped throws in the middle of the field.

It is vital, though, to note Murray’s biggest advantage over his predecessors in Minnesota: his mobility and scrambling. Aside from one year with Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers, O’Connell has worked with mostly pocket passers, or at least guys who aren’t exactly creative scramblers. There have been just two designed quarterback runs in O’Connell’s four years in Minnesota. Murray might not be what he was as a scrambler pre-injuries, but he can still make magic with his legs. His ability as a designed runner could also be very helpful near the goal line. 

2026 projections: 13 games, 2,925 passing yards, 22 pass TD, 8 int; 75 rushes, 320 rushing yards, 5 rush TD

Malik Willis

• Dual threat
• What’s real?
• Supporting cast shortcomings

I wrote about Willis’ fit in Miami when he signed with the Dolphins back in March, and the numbers from his time in Green Bay were downright absurd.

Among 62 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks over the past two seasons, Willis ranked …

• First in passer rating (134.6)
• First in yards per attempt (10.9)
• First in completion percentage (79%)
• First in expected points added per dropback (0.41)

Yes, that’s the same player who was acquired from the Titans for a lowly seventh-round pick just days before the 2024 season began in a trade that garnered little attention. Willis’ ability as a runner was rarely doubted: He ran for 1,822 yards and 27 touchdowns in his final two seasons at Liberty. But to see him turn to arguably the NFL’s best running quarterback, albeit in a tiny sample size, was a surprise.

In three starts in Green Bay, he ran for 174 yards and three touchdowns. He averaged 8.9 yards on scrambles and 6.9 yards on designed runs like this one:

Willis’ jump in accuracy, though, was simply astonishing. It even surprised Packers coach Matt LaFleur. In Tennessee, he had a 53% completion rate and a 13.6% off-target rate. In Green Bay, he had a 79% completion rate and a 5.6% off-target rate. Combine that with elite-level arm strength, and he was absolutely cooking.

The worries come naturally. As someone who likes to scramble — Willis’ 14% scramble rate topped the NFL the last two seasons — he takes a lot of sacks, too. As I wrote in March …

His 3.15-second average time to throw was sixth-longest in the NFL over the past two years.There are some usual suspects — Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams — ahead of him. That’s the good group. Shedeur Sanders and Tyrod Taylor are also ahead of him. That’s the bad group.

Willis’ 11% sack rate over the past two seasons is the fifth-highest in the NFL. The only players above him? Deshaun Watson, Kenny Pickett, Levis and Brady Cook. Players just behind him include Carson Wentz, Justin Fields, J.J. McCarthy and Sanders. Again, that’s a bad group.

Willis’ new home is full of questions, too. He is going from LaFleur, one of the NFL’s best offensive minds who could accentuate Willis’ strengths on the fly, to Bobby Slowik, who was fired after two years as Houston’s offensive coordinator. The Texans were a heavy under-center team under Slowik; Willis was far, far more effective out of shotgun. The pass protection plans in Houston were often a mess under Slowik, especially given Willis’ tendencies.

And even if Slowik is better, this is a tough change of scenery. The Dolphins’ top wide receivers are Jalen Tolbert, Malik Washington and Tutu Atwell. The offensive line has an All-Pro center in Aaron Brewer and an intriguing youngster in Patrick Paul, but there are major questions. De’Von Achane is awesome, but there are plenty of reasons Miami finished dead last in Jared Dubin’s offensive infrastructure rankings. Expect a run-heavy attack featuring many Willis/Achane RPOs.

Patience must be a virtue. The Dolphins must be patient with Willis. Willis must be patient as a new-look roster, a new coaching staff, and a new scenario — being a full-time starter — collide. Willis’ play style naturally lends itself to some high highs and some low lows. Managing both will be a process.

2026 projections: 14 games, 2,660 pass yds, 17 pass TD, 10 int; 100 rushes, 700 rushing yards, 7 rush TD

Tua Tagovailoa

• Accuracy on first read
• Ball handling
• Turnovers + injuries

The book is out — and has been out — on Tagovailoa. He is accurate when the ball comes out quickly and to his first option. After that, things can melt down: He doesn’t move well, he crumbles when pressured, and his poor arm strength and lack of creativity become issues.

The Tagovailoa-vs.-Penix quarterback battle will be fascinating because they share so many basic similarities and stark play-style differences. Both have significant injury histories. Both are lefties. While Penix is a more creative player and can move a little bit, neither is close to being a dual threat, and Penix’s latest knee injury doesn’t help in that aspect.

But Tagovailoa wants the ball out quickly and short or intermediate. Penix wants to rip the ball deep. Tagovailoa is accurate. Penix is erratic. Tagovailoa lacks arm strength. Penix has it in bunches. Tagovailoa favors the middle of the field: Over 53% of his passes since 2022 went between the numbers, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Penix wants to go outside: Since 2024, he’s thrown 38% of his passes between the numbers, the lowest rate in the NFL. (It’s worth noting Penix has been pretty successful when targeting the middle of the field, as has Tagovailoa.)

Tagovailoa’s edge in experience under center should help him adjust to Kevin Stefanski’s offense. Furthermore, after playing in Mike McDaniel’s motion-filled offense, Tagovailoa is excellent at play fakes, unconventional passes, and getting the ball out immediately. Also, the passing tendencies could be excellent for London, who is a beast on in-breaking routes, and the quick release could help on screens to Robinson.

The major issue is the decision making fell off a cliff last year. Tagovailoa’s picks came in all sorts of ways, but the two big ones show his devastating shortcomings: When he locks in on his first option, teams can jump it …

… and when he tries to air one out, it’s catching practice for defensive backs. His wobbly, lofted deep passes truly expose his arm weakness.

And when he gets pressure, it’s even worse.

Yes, Tagovailoa has excellent accuracy. Yes, he gets the ball out quickly. But there are far too many mistakes and shortcomings.

2026 projections: 10 games, 2,100 pass yds, 17 pass TD, 10 int

Kirk Cousins

Cousins pre-Achilles was a very different player. Before the injury, he was a player who would take deep dropbacks off play action, hang in the pocket, and let the ball rip. He was playing some of the best ball of his career — 18 touchdowns, five interceptions and over 290 passing yards per game — in 2023 before the injury.

Since then, he hasn’t been close to the same. Under-center dropbacks put a lot of stress on the Achilles, and it showed. From 2022-23, he was under center on 47% of his snaps and used play action on 30% of his dropbacks. Since those numbers are down to 27% and 17%, respectively.

For a player like Cousins, the ability to manipulate the defense with play action is crucial. That extra split-second of defensive uncertainty allowed Cousins to find openings, especially over the middle of the field, and get to his second read. Even though we hardly used play action last year, that difference showed.

That bottom right number is massive. Cousins was never a great athlete, but he could move a bit and manage the pocket. Cousins was a bit better last season, two years removed from the injury, but when the pressure is on, it gets bad fast. From 2017-23, he was 14th (out of 51) in EPA per dropback when pressured. The last two years, he is 26th out of 33. The movement just isn’t the same, and neither, it seems, is the arm strength. Before the injury, Cousins was somewhat like Sam Darnold, whom Klint Kubiak really did well with last year. Can he still be somewhat similar to that, even if a step down?

The Raiders’ offensive line was dreadful last year. They’ll hope Tyler Linderbaum helps elevate the unit as a whole, but Cousins behind an iffy line is a scary proposition. Expect a heavy dose of Bowers. Cousins found a good connection with Pitts last year; he’ll feed his standout tight end.

Finally, when projecting Cousins’ 2026, it’s worth noting that every top-five-drafted quarterback since 2020, except for Anthony Richardson, who got hurt, has started at least 10 games as a rookie. Cousins will likely cede his role relatively early.

Projections: 6 games, 1,300 pass yds, 8 pass TD, 6 int