UConn vs. Michigan prediction, pick, odds, spread: Dan Hurley eyes National Championship game revenge

You don’t have to dig deep into the archives to hype this game up. It’s the rematch of the 2026 National Championship game. Dusty May and the always-quotable Yaxel Lendeborg aren’t around anymore, but the star power isn’t hard to find. Michigan believes it has the best backcourt in college basketball. Get this: UConn also believes it has the best backcourt in the sport.

What more could you possibly want?

Let’s dive into the matchups to watch ahead of this big-boy brawl, starting with the projected starting lineups for each side:

Michigan: G Elliot Cadeau, G Trey McKenney, G Roddy Gayle Jr., F JP Estrella and C Moustapha Thiam

UConn: G Silas Demary Jr., G Braylon Mullins, G Jayden Ross, F Nik Khamenia and C Na’jai Hines

UConn vs. Michigan: Need to know

Best on best: Cadeau and Demary Jr. are both front-runners for the Bob Cousy Award, given to the best point guard in America. Cadeau is a wizard playmaker who mixes speed, power and creativity. In an ideal world, Cadeau would love to finish a game with 12 assists rather than 20 points, but new Michigan head coach Mike Boynton Jr. may need him to score more than ever before. That’s easier said than done because Demary is an elite point-of-attack defender. Demary is all of 6-foot-5 who takes it personally if anyone works him for a bucket. The team with the best point guard play will win this game, but it’s as close to a draw on paper.

Portal bigs: UConn and Michigan had to replace a combined five NBA players who all played in the frontcourt. UConn spent big in the portal for Seton Hall transfer Na’jai Hines, who is a total freak. Michigan did the same with Cincinnati transfer Moustapha Thiam, who is expected to suit up in this one after missing the opener against Oakland with an illness. Bigs from the portal always take a little time to fully coalesce for their new teams, but UConn and Michigan don’t have time to wait. Thiam and Hines need to be immediate difference-makers. 

Specifically, keep an eye on when UConn aggressively hard-hedges Michigan’s ball screens. Hines can be a bit foul-prone when he’s flying out to try and be disruptive. Those avoidable fouls drove Dan Hurley up a wall in the preseason and earned Hines plenty of time on the pine. Conversely, that coverage forces the ball out of Cadeau’s hands and into Thiam’s hands. The 7-foot-2 big fella has to make good decisions if Michigan wants to find good shots, but he’s not a great passer (yet). Friday’s test should be enlightening on both sides of the aisle.

Preseason hints: Some over-index on preseason results. Others completely ignore them. The truth is likely more in the middle. In the preseason, UConn’s defense looked way ahead of schedule. It put Purdue in clamps for long stretches. Hurley has grown men, positional size and at least one elite defender at every single level. Meanwhile, Michigan doesn’t look super connected on defense yet. We already knew Michigan’s defense was not going to be on the level of the 2025-26 squad’s special group. The question is whether this UM squad is a top-25 or top-50 unit. Any disconnected defense is going to be in hell against the labyrinth that is the UConn offense.

Where to watch UConn vs. Michigan live

Date: Friday, November 6 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: TD Garden — Boston, MA
TV: TNT | Stream: Fubo (try for free)

UConn vs. Michigan prediction, picks

The starting 5s for each of these teams are pretty even. Cadeau and Demary are a draw at point guard. Snipers like Trey McKenney and Braylon Mullins are pretty similar. On and on we go. The difference is the bench. UConn can bring a potential first-round pick off the bench in linebacker Colben Landrew. Michigan planned to have something similar, but five-star freshman Brandon McCoy Jr. blew out his knee on the Wolverines’ international tour. UConn is the deeper team and looks ahead of schedule on both ends of the floor. Michigan’s defense isn’t airtight, and I also struggle to envision how the Wolverines create good shots if Cadeau ever gets into foul trouble. 

This line opened with UConn as a three-point favorite and understandably got hammered. It’s ballooned out to six. But two whole possessions feels a bit rich for a game where the top-shelf talent is basically even on both sides. UConn can out-physical a lot of teams, but not Michigan. Gayle, Cadeau and McKenney are physical guards. Plus, if Hines gets in foul trouble, I’m not quite convinced Oskar Giltay is ready to be a needle-mover against a talented frontcourt like Michigan’s. UConn ain’t losing in Boston, but the points are the right side here at anything north of six. If it drops back inside two possessions, you can pivot back to Hurley’s boys. Pick: Michigan +6

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