UK exports to US hit lowest level since January 2022 as tariffs bite
UK exports to the US have fallen to their lowest level since January 2022, as Donald Trump’s trade war has hit demand for British goods.
New trade data from the Office for National Statistics this morning shows that the value of UK exports to the US, including precious metals, fell by £500m or 11.4% in September.
The ONS says:
The value of goods exports to the United States in September 2025 were at their lowest level since January 2022 and have remained relatively low since the introduction of tariffs in April.
This drop in trade comes despite the deal agreed by Donald Trump and Keir Starmer this summer, under which the UK aerospace sector faces no tariffs at all from the US, while the auto industry now has 10% tariffs, down from 25%.
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More generally, the 10% baseline tariff implemented by the Trump administration remains on most UK goods, which is lower than the reciprocal tariffs applied to imports from other countries.
The trade report shows that exports of UK chemicals to the US fell by £300m, while exports of machinery and transport equipment fell by £100m – partly due to the Jaguar Land Rover cyber attack which froze its operations for the month.
More broadly, total UK goods exports fell by £1.7 billion or 5.5% in September, with a decrease in exports to both EU and non-EU countries.
This pushed the UK’s trade in goods deficit wider – it increased by £3.0bn to £59.6bn in the third quarter of the year.
Key events
Today’s weak UK growth report hasn’t dampened expectations that interest rates could be cut next month.
The money markets are indicating there’s a 81% chance that the Bank of England lowers Bank Rate to 3.75% at its next meeting in mid-December, little changed compared with just before the GDP data was released at 7am.
Analysts at BNP Paribas reckon the budget will help push the Bank towards a rate cut, saying:
We see the budget delivering a disinflationary impulse that paves the way for further easing from the Bank of England, in line with our long-held view. We continue to expect the next rate cut in December.
The UK hospitality industry is, again, appealing to the government for support in the budget.
Kate Nicholls, chair of UKHospitality, has warned that the UK’s “consistent growth problem” and waning consumer confidence are both hitting high streets hard.
Nicholls says:
“Hospitality is being taxed out, with rising costs continuing to hit every part of a business. The £3.4 billion in additional annual cost inflicted on our sector in April made investing in and growing a business almost impossible. Instead, it has led to job losses, cancelled investment, price increases and business failure.
“You cannot tax your way to growth on the backs of the high street, which is why the Budget needs to be focused on reducing costs for businesses. Cutting hospitality’s tax burden – the highest in the country – would enable our sector to grow, create jobs and help people back into work.
“We need to see urgent action at the Budget. The Chancellor needs to lower business rates, fix NICs and cut VAT to unleash hospitality’s potential.”
UKHospitality has previously warned that the increase in employer NICs contributions announced in last year’s budget would drive up costs for restaurants, hotels, pubs, cafes and nightclubs
Downing Street admits GDP growth slowdown is disappointing
The slowdown in UK economic growth to 0.1% for the past three months is “disappointing”, Downing Street has admitted.
A No 10 spokesman told reporters this morning:
“These numbers are disappointing.”
The official added that “It’s obviously important to recognise the significance of the cyber attack” on Jaguar Land Rover, as this was “clearly the primary driver behind the weaker September figures” [GDP fell 0.1% in that month alone].
“But we are determined to deliver that growth. We had the fastest-growing economy in G7 in the first half of this year. But there is clearly more to do to build an economy that works for working people.”
Asked whether the Chancellor should take responsibility for the slowing growth, the spokesman said: “I don’t accept that.”
Moody’s Analytics fears UK growth will be subdued over the coming months.
Andrew Hunter, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics, explains:
“For the second year running, the U.K. economy’s strong performance over the first half of the year appears to have been a flash in the pan, with GDP rising by only 0.1% in the third quarter.
Modest gains in household consumption and government spending were offset by declines in business investment and exports. With domestic demand likely to be weighed down by tax rises set to be announced in this month’s budget, and the global economy likely to remain fairly weak, we expect U.K. growth to remain subdued over the coming quarters.’’
Security workers have been protesting outside the Bank of England this morning.
The staff work for outsourced firm Amulet Security (Churchill Security Solutions) Limited, who unanimously voted to strike after their employer announced a pay freeze.
According to the Unite union, Amulet took over the contract earlier this year, and says it can’t afford to fund a pay increase.
Unite said last month:
Yet after seven months of stringing workers along, the Bank of England has now refused to give its contract workers at Amulet any form of pay increase this year. This is a substantial real terms pay cut, with the current RPI inflation rate standing at 4.5 per cent.
Full story: UK economy grew by just 0.1% in third quarter amid hit from JLR cyber-attack
Heather Stewart
The UK economy expanded by just 0.1% in the quarter from July to September as the crippling cyber-attack on Jaguar Land Rover hit manufacturing.
The latest official figures, issued as Rachel Reeves prepares for a crunch budget on 26 November, show gross domestic product fell by 0.1% in September as car production was dragged down to a 73-year low by the fallout from the hack.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) highlighted the influence of the cyber-attack, saying: “Production fell by 2.0% in September 2025 mainly because of a 28.6% fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers.”
The GDP slowdown began earlier, however, with growth in August – before the cyber-attack hit – revised down to zero from an initial estimate of 0.1%.
The third-quarter growth reading of 0.1% marked a significant slowdown from the 0.3% expansion seen from April to June, and was weaker than the 0.2% expected by markets. September also undershot a forecast of flatlining growth.
More here.
The Tony Blair Institute is calling for an “urgent reset” of the UK’s economic strategy, following the sharp slowdown in growth to just 0.1% in July-September.
Tom Smith, director of economic policy at the Tony Blair Institute, has said growth must be hard-wired into every major policy decision.
The Chancellor’s task at the Budget is not just to restore fiscal credibility, but to set out a comprehensive pro-business plan that lays the foundations for national renewal.”
“That means tax reform to boost investment — extending full expensing to all assets, replacing business rates with a commercial landowner tax, and scrapping stamp duty on shares. And it means supporting a flexible labour market by reforming property taxes to make it easier for people to move, designing a smarter migration system that attracts the skills Britain needs, and replacing the plan for day-one dismissal protections with a more balanced six-month qualifying period.”
“Only by driving genuine, sustained growth can we lift living standards, strengthen the public finances and create the fiscal space for the change voters want to see.”
The number of UK properties being repossessed has jumped in the last quarter, a sign of rising stress in the housing market.
Repossessions by county court bailiffs jumped by 40% year-on-year in July to September, to 1,228, up from 876 in the third quarter of 2024.
September was a poor month for UK trade, says William Bain, head of trade policy at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC).
Having analysed today’s trade data (see earlier post), Bain explains:
Goods exports fell to the US, EU and the rest of the world. The impacts of the JLR cyber-attack were clearly felt in a slump in automotive exports to the US, but other export sectors also declined.
“It is also a concern that services exports took a hit too. Across the third quarter of 2025, goods exports saw a small decline. But tariffs continue to have an impact, with an 11% year-on-year drop in the value of goods exports to the US in Q3.
“It is crucial that policy measures accompanying the forthcoming Budget relieve the pressures on traders. This means customs reforms to make goods movements quicker and simpler including a firm commitment to the UK Single Trade Window.
“The government should also look to boost the export capacity of established exporting companies through trade accelerators.”
UK exports to US hit lowest level since January 2022 as tariffs bite
UK exports to the US have fallen to their lowest level since January 2022, as Donald Trump’s trade war has hit demand for British goods.
New trade data from the Office for National Statistics this morning shows that the value of UK exports to the US, including precious metals, fell by £500m or 11.4% in September.
The ONS says:
The value of goods exports to the United States in September 2025 were at their lowest level since January 2022 and have remained relatively low since the introduction of tariffs in April.
This drop in trade comes despite the deal agreed by Donald Trump and Keir Starmer this summer, under which the UK aerospace sector faces no tariffs at all from the US, while the auto industry now has 10% tariffs, down from 25%.
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More generally, the 10% baseline tariff implemented by the Trump administration remains on most UK goods, which is lower than the reciprocal tariffs applied to imports from other countries.
The trade report shows that exports of UK chemicals to the US fell by £300m, while exports of machinery and transport equipment fell by £100m – partly due to the Jaguar Land Rover cyber attack which froze its operations for the month.
More broadly, total UK goods exports fell by £1.7 billion or 5.5% in September, with a decrease in exports to both EU and non-EU countries.
This pushed the UK’s trade in goods deficit wider – it increased by £3.0bn to £59.6bn in the third quarter of the year.
Resolution Foundation: UK is second fastest growing economy in the G7 despite Q3 slowdown
The UK is the second fastest growing economy across the G7 this year after the US, the Resolution Foundation says.
They point out that growth has slowed this year, down from 0.7% in Q1, to 0.3% in Q2 and to just 0.1% in Q3.
But even though US GDP report has been delayed, the Resolution Foundation points to ‘nowcast’ data which indicates the US has grown by 1.7% in 2025, followed by the Uk with 1% growth so far this year.
James Smith, research director at the Resolution Foundation, said:
“The UK is repeating its recent trend of a strong economic start to the year, followed by a slowdown in the second half.
“This latest slowdown shows the scale of the challenge facing the Government as it seeks to kickstart growth. The next challenge will be to ensure that the upcoming Budget supports rather than hinders growth – no mean feat given the scale of fiscal consolidation that is expected.”
So growth slowed to just 0.1% in Q3 – this is *another* year (after 2023 and 2024) in which growth has slowed in the second half of the year after a promising start. Growth in Q3 was way below the post-pandemic normal (which itself is very weak!). pic.twitter.com/1NCPZxirNk
— JamesSmithRF (@JamesSmithRF) November 13, 2025
If you look at growth relative to other rich countries, the UK looks mid-table for Q3 (although this comparison is made trickier by delays to US publication). Stepping back, we’ve been the 2nd fastest growing G7 economy in the first 9m of 2025- still decent by recent standards. pic.twitter.com/vKkVODYEMc
— JamesSmithRF (@JamesSmithRF) November 13, 2025
You can see the slowing more clearly in the monthly data with output contracting in September. Looking at sectors, there was an encouraging bounce back in services in Sep offset by very weak production, affected by weak car production (affected by Jaguar outage). pic.twitter.com/CWh4jr4Tq3
— JamesSmithRF (@JamesSmithRF) November 13, 2025
The London stock market has dipped in early trading as investors digest this morning’s weaker-than-expected UK growth data.
Update: The FTSE 100 index, which closed at a new high last night, is down 28 points or 0.28% at 9,883 points, partly because several stocks have gone ex-dividend this morning.
Private equity group 3i is leading the fallers, down over 10% after giving a cautious outlook in its latest results.
Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, says:
“The FTSE 100 is down at the open, looking weaker than early futures prices had anticipated. Investors are choosing to take a negative view of the double-edged sword that is GDP. The initial readout was worse than expected with output shrinking 0.1% in September compared to forecasts of a flat outcome. Production was the most notable brake on growth, impacted by the cyber-attack on Jaguar Land Rover, one of the costliest in UK history, and driving a 28.6% fall in production from the motor industry. There were however some more encouraging signs in construction and services which each grew by 0.2%.
Overall, however growth in the quarter was just 0.1%, with no growth at all on a per head basis. Today’s figures provide further support for a further rate cut next month with markets now pricing in over an 80% chance of a quarter point drop. However, the weak growth backdrop will do little to alleviate more structural concerns about UK productivity and provides little wiggle room for giveaways in this month’s Budget.
The UK economy is ‘running out of steam’ as we approach the crucial budget on 26 November, warns Fergus Jimenez-England, associate economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
“Today’s GDP figures show a disappointing 0.1 per cent rise in the third quarter, with the economy running out of steam ahead of the Budget. Growth this quarter reflects base effects from an uneven previous quarter, with more recent monthly activity falling.
We expect GDP growth this year to be stronger than last, but this is supported by government spending rather than private sector activity.
With fiscal tightening widely expected in the Autumn Budget, the Chancellor must focus on restoring confidence by setting aside a larger buffer to reduce policy churn and uncertainty.”
Today’s UK GDP data is bad news for unemployment, warns Professor Costas Milas of the Management School at University of Liverpool.
He explains:
Today’s GDP reading suggests that UK output gap (output relative to trend/equilibrium output) stood at -0.8% in 2025Q3, even worse than the -0.6% figure for 2025Q2. If anything, we are going downhill.
The chart below shows the historical relationship between output gap and unemployment. When output drops below trend, unemployment rises. In my view, unemployment will rise well above 5.0%, which the Bank of England predicts for 2025Q4 and 2026Q1, not least because the Bank has the habit of underestimating unemployment.
Things will get even worse as taxes are predicted to rise in the forthcoming Budget…Not a good day today for the UK economy.
Shadow chancellor Mel Stride has blamed the government’s choices for the “very low” growth in the last quarter.
In a video clip shot this morning, Stride argues:
You put up taxes on businesses, if you spend a lot of money, stoke inflation, keep interest rates higher for longer as a consequence, mound up the national debt, end up paying huge servicing charges on that debt, then this is where, I’m afraid, you end up.
Although the clip is shot in Westminster, it sounds like Stride is giving his views from a performance of theatrical show Stomp, as a stirring percussion soundtrack has been added….
[on his points: interest rates have been cut five times since last summer, and a 6th cut in December may be even more likely now the economy is strugging.]
The UK fell behind France for growth in the last quarter, but did better than some other large European countries.
Both Germany and Italy stagnated in July-September, while France bounced ahead with 0.5% growth in the quarter.
Among oher G7 countries, Canada is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the quarter.
We don’t yet have Japan’s Q3 growth report, while the US GDP data has been delayed by the government shutdown which finally ended overnight.
