Key events
Bitcoin drops as hopes of Fed rate cut fade
Bitcoin fell alongside other high-risk assets on Friday, as hopes for a rate cut from the Fed next week begin to fade.
The cryptocurrency dropped to a low of $115,122, its lowest level since 11 July. It comes after Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $123,205 last week, driven by optimism around a more welcoming regulatory environment in the US, which has helped boost demand for crypto products. Bitcoin has rallied by 24% against the US dollar in the year to date.
Trump tussles with Powell on visit to the Federal Reserve
In case you missed it overnight, Donald Trump and Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, clashed last night during a state visit to inspect the renovation of the central bank’s historic headquarters in Washington.
The president claimed the total cost of the renovations was $3.1bn, higher than previously reported. As Trump made this claim, Powell shook his head and said: “I’m not aware of that. I haven’t heard that from anybody at the Fed.”
Having branded Powell a “numbskull” for the Fed’s recent decisions not to cut rates, Trump has pressured Powell with criticism of the $2.5bn bill for renovating the Fed’s historical buildings.
However, Trump backed away from earlier suggestions that he would fire the Federal Reserve chair:
To do that is a big move, and I just don’t think it’s necessary, and I believe he’s going to do the right thing.
The president’s visit to the Fed comes less than a week before the central bank’s 19 policymakers gather for a rate-setting meeting. They are widely expected to leave the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25% to 4.5% range.
Markets have opened weaker in Europe this morning. Britain’s blue chip FTSE 100 index has slipped 0.2%, while Germany’s Dax has slipped 0.8%. The French CAC 40 index has dropped 0.5%, and the pan-continental Euro Stoxx 600 has slipped 0.4%.
In the UK, NatWest is leading the FTSE 100, with its shares trading up 1.2%. The property search platform Rightmove is at the bottom of the pack, with its shares down 2.9% after it warned of slower growth in the second half of the year.
Over in the FTSE 250 index, shares in Mitchells & Butlers have risen by more than 4% at the open, after the pub chain reported that recent sunny weather has helped it grow its sales by 4.5% in the 42 weeks ended on 19 July. Phil Urban, chief executive of the company, said this morning that its strong performance meant that it could meet “cost challenges facing the sector”.
Meanwhile, shares in Marshalls have dropped by 24.4% after the building materials company issued an unscheduled trading update this morning. It cut its full-year expectations due to macroeconomic uncertainty and said it expects no improvement for the rest of the year.
NatWest reports strong profit, announces £750m buyback
Strong figures from NatWest this morning as it reports its first quarter as a fully privatised bank.
The lender has announced a £750m share buyback and raised its guidance for the year. Pre-tax profits of £1.8bn in its second quarter beat expectations, and the bank has told investors that it now expects income for the year to land above £16bn, compared with previous guidance of between £15.2bn and £15.bn.
NatWest announced its return to full private ownership at the end of May, ending more than a decade as the government sold the last of its shares in the bank after its bailout in 2008. Shares in NatWest have risen by roughly a quarter in the year to date, as banks have also broadly benefited from interest rates falling at a slower rate than expected.
Zoe Gillespie, of the wealth manager RBC Brewin Dolphin, has said the strong figures suggest NatWest’s big turnaround project has taken hold.
Its strategy of simplification, cost reduction, and technology integration – combined with sensible bolt-on acquisitions – is driving income growth and greater profitability. The addition of Sainsbury’s Bank, in particular, provides a real platform for further growth in UK retail banking.
Now fully in private ownership, NatWest has a freer hand to make its next big strategic move and, in the interim, shareholders are being well rewarded for their patience with a sizeable dividend increase and share buyback programme.
There is however a rather gloomy note in NatWest’s results, tucked under the bank’s notes on potential economic scenarios.
Since 31 December 2024, the near-term economic growth outlook has weakened. This was mainly due to the weaker economic performance in the second half of 2024 and the drag from international trade policy related uncertainty. Inflation has risen, with underlying price pressure remaining firm, particularly on services inflation.
As a result, inflation is assumed to remain a little higher than 3% through most of 2025, taking longer to fall back to the target level of 2%. The labour market has continued to cool. The unemployment rate peak is now assumed to be modestly higher than at 31 December 2024, but it is still expected to remain low. The Bank of England is expected to continue cutting interest rates in a ‘gradual and careful’ manner with an assumed terminal rate in the base case of 3.5%. The housing market continues to show signs of resilience, with prices still expected to grow modestly.
British retail sales rise in June, official figures show
There is some positive news for the retail sector this morning, with official figures showing that monthly sales rose in June by 0.9%. It follows a fall of 2.8% in May.
That was helped by warm weather, with supermarkets reporting better trading and an increase in drink purchases, the Office for National Statistics has said.
The warm weather in June helped to brighten sales, with supermarket retailers reporting stronger trading and an increase in drink purchases.
It was also a good month for fuel sales as consumers ventured out and about in the sunshine. pic.twitter.com/RHKdhbhxTo
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) July 25, 2025
While growth is encouraging, the numbers are weaker than expected. A poll by Reuters showed that economists had been expecting a monthly rise of 1.2%.
Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, warns that the sunny mood music may not last long.
While the June figures are welcome news and consumer confidence ticked up last month, nervousness among consumers persists, and the unexpected rise in inflation won’t have helped. The higher price of essentials such as food and fuel will only add to the reluctance among consumers to spend as their discretionary income shrinks.
Concerns remain in the sector, as retailers increasingly run out of headroom to mitigate rising costs. Many will be hoping the government steps in to provide meaningful reductions in business rates, as well as raising the threshold at which employers’ National Insurance becomes payable. It’s also hoped that the reintroduction of tax-free shopping is brought back on the table, so the sector doesn’t miss out further on valuable retail spend.”
Introduction: Keir Starmer to push Donald Trump over steel tariff deal
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Donald Trump, who is due to arrive in Scotland on Friday for a five-day golf trip, is expected to meet with Keir Starmer early next week as the prime minister pushes to finalise their deal on steel trade tariffs.
In May, the US agreed to lift tariffs on steel imports from the UK, which currently stand at 25%. However, there are concerns that the steel must be melted and poured in the UK, which could exclude Tata Steel UK as it closed its last blast furnace last year. It has been importing steel from its sister plants in India and the Netherlands, which it then processes in the UK.
Starmer is expected to argue for building closer trade ties with the US, including cutting tariffs on Scotch whisky, according to a report by the Financial Times.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters this week: “On Friday morning, President Trump will travel to Scotland for a working visit that will include a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Starmer to refine the historic US-UK trade deal.”
The talks will come after Stamer sealed a tradel deal with India on Thursday. The agreement, which is the biggest struck by Britain since Brexit, will cut back the cost of India’s tariffs for the UK and improve exports of products such as Scotch whisky and cars.
Starmer told Bloomberg News that his government had “re-established the place and position of the UK on the world stage.”
“We’re seen as a country which other countries want to be working with and delivering with.”
