Best NFL futures bets to make after the first month of the 2026 season: Buy Dallas Cowboys, Bijan Robinson

Four weeks of NFL action are now in the rearview mirror. The rust has been shaken off, and clubs are now getting into a groove as we continue to barrel down the road that’ll eventually lead us to Super Bowl LXI. Of course, before we get to that matchup, there’s plenty that still needs to be determined, so how about we roll up our sleeves and call some shots? 

Below, we’re going to roll through a handful of futures bets to make now that we’ve seen these teams up close for four games. In this very story a year ago, we clued you in on a number of winners, including the Jaguars winning their division, New England going over their then-8.5 over/under win total, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba leading the league in receiving yards. Each of those paid out at plus money, with Smith-Njigba being our biggest winner at +600. 

With 14 weeks left in the 2026 regular season, let’s jump on some early value on the futures market while we still can. 

NFL odds as of Oct. 6 and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook 

Cowboys to win the NFC East

Odds: +134

This is just as much of a play against the rest of the division as it is buying Dallas. While the Giants were my preseason dark horse to burst onto the scene in the NFC East, the Jaxson Dart season-ending knee injury imploded that prediction. Meanwhile, the Commanders have QB injuries of their own, with Jayden Daniels again dealing with a left elbow injury. He’s slated to return at some point, but they’ve dug themselves into a 1-3 hole through the first month and are already 0-2 in the division, including a head-to-head loss to the Cowboys. 

Then there’s the Eagles. Despite sitting at 2-2, they look lost offensively. Even before dealing with an onslaught of injuries to the likes of DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert, it just hasn’t looked right. Through the first month, their yards-per-play average is tied for the third-lowest in the NFL, with teams like the Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Chargers moving the ball at a more efficient clip. While the injury luck could eventually flip in the Eagles’ favor, this just doesn’t feel like Philadelphia’s year. 

That brings us to Dallas. Sure, their defense hasn’t looked much improved from last year despite a slew of new faces being injected into that side of the ball. But they still feel like the most complete team in the division. They also just traded for corner Joey Porter Jr., and his arrival could help bring the defense to a more serviceable level. 

Even if they get there, the strength of this team will remain its offense, and it’s that unit that gives us confidence in this future. The Cowboys are tied for the second-highest scoring offense in the NFL (30.5 points per game), fourth-best on third down (51.02%) and the third-best in the league in the red zone (81.25%). They also protect the football well with just two turnovers through the first four games. 

Their upcoming schedule is pretty soft, which will be an opportunity to pile up some wins. Over the next seven games, they’ll face the likes of the Buccaneers, Packers, Cardinals, Colts, and Titans, which could all be looked at as penciled-in wins. 

If you want to play this more conservatively and look at the Cowboys to simply make the playoffs, that sits at -114. 

Chicago Bears to win the NFC North 

Odds: +240

Let’s take advantage of the uncertainty surrounding Caleb Williams’ return from his hamstring injury and jump on this value with Chicago to win the NFC North. 

Minnesota currently is the betting favorite to win this division at +125, but I think its 4-0 record is a bit hollow. It beat up on bad competition in the Packers, Bucs, and Dolphins. While the Vikings claimed a head-to-head win over the Bears, that was when Williams went down. They might be able to win games solely based on their lethal defense, but I think rubber will eventually meet the road, and they’ll need their offense to muster something. So far, I don’t know if Kyler Murray is the best fit for Kevin O’Connell’s system, which has me questioning their ability to hang onto their division lead. 

Beyond the Vikings, this division doesn’t feel as fearsome as it did heading into the year. The Lions’ defense leaves them vulnerable, and the Packers haven’t instilled any faith, so I think this is Chicago’s division to lose. Williams will be back sooner rather than later, and, when he does, I’d expect this number to shrink. That’ll be especially true if their defense continues to play at a high level after allowing less than 13 points in each of its last three games. 

Jacksonville Jaguars to be the No. 1 seed

Odds: +500

I think Jacksonville is hiding in plain sight as the best team in the AFC. Sure, Kansas City’s revival with its 4-0 start has the NFL buzzing, but the Jaguars feel like a sleeping giant. Dating back to 2025, the club is 11-1 over its past 12 regular season games. There’s a lane for them to possess the top seed and first-round bye when the dust settles on the regular season. 

The Jaguars, who are 3-1 and currently atop the AFC South, have the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL. They’ll be in London over the next two weeks and face a depleted Eagles team in Week 5 before their first divisional matchup of the year against the current 0-4 Texans in Week 6. They’ll be favored in both of those games, meaning they could be 5-1 as they enter the Week 7 bye week. 

After that, their toughest remaining games are arguably at the Ravens in Week 9, at the Bears in Week 13, and at the Cowboys in Week 16. It wouldn’t surprise me if they go into any of those environments and pull out the victory. But let’s say they lose all three of those games and take care of business elsewhere; that’d put them at 13-4 for the second-straight year, which would certainly put them in prime position to claim the No. 1 seed. 

Bijan Robinson to win Offensive Player of the Year

Odds: +600

Robinson is looking up to both Jahmyr Gibbs (+400) and Kenneth Walker III (+380) in the race currently, but I think this is a fantastic price for the Falcons star back. He’s currently second in the NFL in rushing and total yards from scrimmage, trailing Walker by just 43 rushing yards and 7 scrimmage yards. Robinson has caught up in the standings after going nuclear over the last two games, once Michael Penix Jr. returned at quarterback. 

While it’s hard to imagine Robinson keeping up his current pace with Penix under center, let’s just have some fun and project out what these numbers would look like over a full 17-game season. That’d come out to about 2,881 rushing yards and 34 rushing touchdowns. LOL! 

That’s just an extreme projection to illustrate that Robinson has the ability to light it up now that the Falcons are getting stable quarterback play with Penix. He’s just as — if not slightly more — talented than both Gibbs and Walker, and if the Falcons go on to win the NFC South (currently tied with the Panthers after the first month), I believe he’ll be given the large chunk of the credit in the form of OPOY votes. 

Kyle Shanahan to win Coach of the Year

Odds: +1200

Let me lay out some of the current odds surrounding the 49ers. After Week 4, they are the betting favorite to have the most regular-season wins at +350, meaning that they are also the favorites to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC (+190) as well as win the NFC West (+100). If all that comes to fruition and they are the top dogs in the conference with a big win total (currently 4-0), why wouldn’t Kyle Shanahan be the favorite to win Coach of the Year? 

Shanahan would have once again navigated his team through another pile of injuries and firmly have them in the Super Bowl conversation. This is almost exactly what he did a year ago, only the Niners fell to the Seahawks in Week 18, which spurned them the opportunity to be the No. 1 seed. Had they won that game, I think Shanahan would’ve won COY then. Now, he has a similar opportunity and, given the +1200 price point, it’s maybe the best value on the entire futures board. 

The only candidate that truly makes me nervous in this race is Todd Monken (+700). He has the Browns at 3-1 on the year, and Cleveland is tied for the third-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL. Given how low the bar has been with that organization, if he merely keeps them over .500 on the season, it might be enough for him to snatch this away. Even with that in mind, Shanahan’s odds are the better value. 

Bonus parlay: Packers and Colts to miss playoffs

Odds: +100

Let’s hand out one more, shall we? For this bonus pick, we’re going to put together a parlay that has both Green Bay and Indianapolis missing the playoffs, which pays out currently at +100. Despite each being 2-2 on the season, neither of these clubs passes the eye test. 

Daniel Jones does not look right in his first season back since tearing his Achilles, and the Colts quarterback was seeing ghosts in London against the Commanders. Indy’s defense is also giving up the second-most total yards per game (392.3) in the NFL through four weeks. Jacksonville is the clear alpha in the AFC North, so the only way it makes the playoffs would be via the wild card, in which it is currently the No. 10 seed. 

As for Green Bay, the Packers also slotted in as the 10-seed in the NFC, and they’re another club that just isn’t a sound operation at the moment. Offensively, they have the worst rushing attack in the NFL (58.0 yards per game) and are the second-most penalized team in the league (42). I think the NFC West makes up two of the three wild card entries in the conference, leaving the Packers not much wiggle room, especially given that we don’t see them winning the NFC North.