Knights vs. Hurricanes parlay: Home teams have dominated Cup Final openers

The Vegas Golden Knights and Carolina Hurricanes meet in the postseason for the first time when they square off in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final on Monday night. It’s an 8 ET puck drop on ABC from Raleigh, in the 68th unique matchup in Stanley Cup Final history. It is the first meeting of division champions since 2018. The NHL is big on parity. 

Both franchises are eyeing a second championship, with Carolina winning the Stanley Cup in 2006 and Vegas lifting the Cup in 2023. The Hurricanes are -152 money-line favorites in the consensus Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes odds, with Carolina priced at +127 and the Over/Under for total goals set at 5.5. 

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Canadiens vs. Hurricanes same-game parlay

• Carolina money line
• Vegas Over 1.5 goals
• Alt Under 7.5

BetRivers SGP price: +300

Carolina is -155 on the series line to hoist its first Cup since 2006, and Vegas is +130 to win its first since 2023 – the last time a team from the Western Conference won it all. I’m simply hoping for seven games, and my early lean would be Hurricanes in seven, which is the +425 exact series result favorite. The Over/Under for total games is 5.5, with the Over at -185, and I absolutely believe this goes at least six. That we have a shutout in any game is -120.

Only eight players in NHL history have won an Olympic gold medal and Stanley Cup in the same year all-time, and only one American: Ken Morrow, who debuted with the Islanders after the 1980 Olympics. But we will get at least one addition to both lists from this series as Carolina’s Jaccob Slavin and Vegas’ Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifan all played for the gold medal-winning Team USA at this year’s Olympics in Italy.

The Golden Knights might be rusty, as they haven’t played since last Tuesday when they shockingly swept out the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche in the West Final.  They seek to become only the fourth team to win at least two Cups in their first nine seasons in the expansion era (since 1967-68).

Coach John Tortorella’s 22-year gap between Stanley Cup Final appearances is the longest by a head coach in NHL history. He won it in 2004 with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Vegas tries to become the eight team to win a Stanley Cup after changing head coaches midseason.

Knights forward Mitchell Marner leads the postseason with 21 points and is the +165 Conn Smythe Trophy favorite as playoff MVP after opening at +6600. At BetMGM, the book is very exposed, as Marner is taking the most tickets of any player on that prop at 17.5%

He’s +330 to have the most points of any player in this series, behind his teammate Eichel (+300), who is second in the league with 18 playoff points. The former Maple Leaf Marner could become the fourth player in the NHL’s modern era (since 1944) to lead the postseason in points during his first season with a franchise. The Leafs tried to trade Marner to Carolina during the 2024-25 season, but he used his no-trade clause to reject the deal because his wife was pregnant and he didn’t want to leave her or Toronto.

The two players with the most goals in these playoffs are the Golden Knights’ Pavel Dorofeyev and Brett Howden, each with 10, but it’s the Hurricanes’ Andrei Svechnikov who is the +500 favorite as the top goal scorer in the series. That’s a bit curious, considering he has only three so far in the playoffs. Logan Stankoven (+900) leads the Canes with nine. 

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Carolina finished off Montreal in the East final last Friday and is the first team to enter the Stanley Cup Final with one or fewer loss since all four rounds went best-of-7 in 1987. Goalie Frederik Andersen is the +220 second favorite for the Conn Smythe as the Canes have allowed only 1.62 goals per game in these playoffs, the seventh-fewest in a postseason in league history with a minimum of 10 games played.

Five of the top six won the Cup, most recently the 2012 Los Angeles Kings. Andersen’s 1.41 GAA is tied for the third-best by a goalie in a postseason in playoff history (minimum 10 games played). For some reason, goalies don’t win the Conn Smythe much these days, only twice since 2007, but I like Andersen at the moment. He could become the first netminder ever to record 13 wins in his first 14 games of a postseason.

In addition, the Hurricanes have been lights-out on special teams in killing off 92.5% of penalties, tied for the fourth-best in any postseason since tracking began in 1978 (minimum of 10 games). Vegas is scoring on the power play 23.9% of the time.

I don’t care much about the regular season. Montreal had won all three during the year vs. Carolina and that proved not to matter. Vegas won both vs. the Hurricanes, outscoring them 10-4, but those were way back in October. Eichel led the way with three goals and an assist, while Marner had four assists. Andersen was in net for both and finished with a 4.09 GAA, but the Dane wasn’t that great during the year. He has flipped a switch.

Current Knights No. 1 netminder Carter Hart — +1200 for the Conn Smythe — didn’t see Carolina during the regular season. Akira Schmid won both games, starting one and replacing an injured Adin Hill in the other.

Jordan Staal and William Carrier are Carolina’s only players with Stanley Cup Final experience who have dressed at least one game this postseason, while Vegas has 13. Staal last won the Cup in 2009 and has a chance to set the NHL record for longest time between Stanley Cup championships as a player. Hall of Famer Chris Chelios has the record with a 16-year gap.

Game 1 winners have won 75.6% of Stanley Cup Finals all-time, and teams that take Game 1 at home are 52-11 in the Final all-time. Excluding the unusual 2020 bubble setup, the home team hasn’t lost Game 1 of a Final since 2015. Four of those past five won the Cup, but the 2025 Oilers didn’t despite the Game 1 win in Edmonton. 

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I believe the rust that got Carolina will get Vegas a bit in the opener, and frankly the Golden Knights benefitted from some Avalanche injuries in the last round. The Canes are healthy and absolutely rolling. They are also 5-0 in OT games. Check out more expert picks in the daily SportsLine newsletter.