Michigan State vs. Toledo betting: Odds, picks, predictions, time for college football Week 1

The Michigan State Spartans look to start their 2026 college football season on the right foot when they host the Toledo Rockets at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan. The Spartans struggled to a 4-8 campaign and went 1-8 in Big Ten play last season, while the Rockets went 8-5, including a 6-2 record in the MAC. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Bet on Michigan State vs. Toledo and more college football action with the latest DraftKings promo code to get $200 in bonus bets after spending $5+:

The Spartans are 9.5-point favorites at home, per the latest DraftKings Sportsbook odds, and the Over/Under for total points scored is 47.5. Here’s a closer look at the college football betting landscape for Michigan State vs. Toledo at the best betting apps, with some notes on what bettors should keep in mind for this matchup. Bet college football at BetMGM Sportsbook and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets with the promo code CBSSPORTS:

Michigan State vs. Toledo betting odds (via DraftKings)

Michigan State vs. Toledo betting preview

Things have to get better for Michigan State at some point, right? The Spartans haven’t had a winning season since 2021, a tough pill to swallow for a school that big with as much of a sports identity. The Big Ten is an unforgiving conference but Spartans fans must be getting impatient. 

The quest for .500 begins with a meeting with the MAC’s Toledo Rockets. Toledo is breaking in a new head coach as Jason Candle departed for UConn after 10 seasons with the Rockets. New boss Mike Jacobs was the head coach at FCS team Mercer for the past two campaigns. Jacobs will have nearly an entirely new roster to work with — Toledo retains just 17% of its total snaps from last season. Michigan State doesn’t rank much higher with just 27% of snaps returning. 

There’s also a new coach in East Lansing with Pat Fitzgerald taking over on the sideline. The longtime Northwestern coach — who spent the last three seasons out of the college game following the controversies that ended his tenure in Evanston — brings a ton of Big Ten experience to the job. He’ll have redshirt sophomore Alessio Milivojevic starting under center. 

Toledo is a +425 third favorite to win the MAC while Michigan State is a +50000 longshot to win the Big Ten. Bet on college football and more at FanDuel and get up to $350 in bonus bets:

Michigan State vs. Toledo picks, prediction

Michigan State vs. Toledo Under 47.5 points

Michigan State was 7-5 to the Over last season while Toldeo was 7-6, but with such heavy roster turnover and two new head coaches in place, it’s difficult to consider those results as meaningful guides. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, has the Under hitting at a 68.9% rate. That makes sense given this will be the first competitive action for the two overhauled rosters and things could take time to mesh on the offensive side of the ball.