Disclosure Day is one of the most anticipated movies of the 2026 summer movie season. A big-budget original sci-fi film directed by the father of the modern blockbuster, Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day is a movie surrounded in mystery. Universal Pictures is pulling out all the stops by releasing the original film right in the middle of the summer. In fact, Disclosure Day‘s June 12 release date coincides with the 45th anniversary of Raiders of the Lost Ark‘s opening day. The same weekend in June saw the release of Spielberg’s E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial and Jurassic Park in 1982 and 1993.
Despite Steven Spielberg’s status as one of the greatest filmmakers of all time and his many timeless classics, there is trepidation about whether his name still has the same selling power to open an original film in the summer movie season as it once did. With box office disappointments like The Mandalorian and Grogu, box office surprises such as The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Backrooms, and the once-in-a-generation run of Obsession, anything is possible this summer. Can Disclosure Day be a box office hit?
How Much Did ‘Disclosure Day’ Cost (and How Much It Needs to Make)
Disclosure Day has a reported budget of $115 million. While that’s big, it’s also relatively small compared to the $200 million spent on Project Hail Mary or the $250 million being spent by Universal Pictures on Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. Disclosure Day is tracking an opening weekend between $35 and $50 million. Deadline recently reported that the film is aiming for a $35 million domestic start and a $65 million worldwide opening in 73 territories. However, those box office numbers could rise following the movie’s 90% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
Variety reports that, with a marketing budget of $80 million, Disclosure Day needs to generate $300 million globally to break even. While a $40 million opening weekend certainly isn’t a great start, it’s not the end of the world. Since it opens in theaters a week before Father’s Day, the movie could get a good head start and mitigate a drop in attendance in its second weekend.
That certainly worked for The Devil Wears Prada 2, which opened on May 1 and saw a 43% decrease in its second weekend over Mother’s Day. However, Father’s Day weekend will also see the release of Toy Story 5, which is tracking for a $150 million opening weekend — the highest for any Toy Story film and the biggest opening of 2026. Disclosure Day might also compete with titles like A24’s The Death of Robin Hood over Father’s Day weekend.
Universal Pictures is certainly counting on word of mouth to drive audiences to see Disclosure Day. That strategy worked for Obsession, and also helped turn Sinners into a phenomenon. Like Disclosure Day, Sinners was an original film from a critically acclaimed director. Sinners opened to an impressive $48 million in 2025 over Easter weekend. The next week, it fell only 4%, taking the number one spot in its second weekend with $45 million. Despite competition from films like Thunderbolts*, Final Destination: Bloodlines, and Lilo & Stitch. Sinners grossed $279.9 million domestically and $370 million worldwide. Now it certainly isn’t fair to compare Disclosure Day to Sinners, but it provides a potential outline for how an original blockbuster aimed at an older audience can be a hit.
How Will ‘Disclosure Day’ Stack Up Against Steven Spielberg’s Most Recent Movies?
Disclosure Day will likely gross more in its opening weekend than Spielberg’s two previous films, West Side Story and The Fabelmans, did in their domestic runs. However, those were holiday releases made shortly after the COVID-19 pandemic, when audiences were still skeptical about returning to theaters. So, let’s compare Disclosure Day to Spielberg’s most recent blockbuster and summer release: Ready Player One and The BFG, respectively.
Ready Player One grossed $41 million in its opening weekend in March 2018. The sci-fi blockbuster grossed $137 million domestically and $607 million worldwide. The BFG opened to $18 million over the 2016 Fourth of July weekend, grossing $55.4 million domestically and $194.6 million worldwide. Disclosure Day looks to be Spielberg’s best opening weekend since Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull in May 2008. But it could also be a far cry from the director’s early summer blockbusters like Jaws, E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial, and Jurassic Park, all of which at one point held the title of highest-grossing movie ever.
Spielberg’s last alien film, 2005’s War of the Worlds, opened to $64 million ($100 million when factoring in the Fourth of July weekend) and grossed $234.2 million domestically and $603.8 million globally. While War of the Worlds was based on an iconic book and popular film and was largely sold on the star power of Tom Cruise and director Steven Spielberg. Even at the high end of Disclosure Day‘s $50 million opening estimates, that figure is considerably lower than War of the Worlds‘ opening, even before you factor in inflation.
Spielberg’s name seemingly has lost some appeal among the younger moviegoers, who now associate the director with more adult-oriented awards fare than with blockbuster movies. However, if the box office performance of titles like Project Hail Mary, Backrooms, and Obsession has proven anything, it is that audiences crave original films by talented filmmakers. That might be enough to generate interest in Disclosure Day, and it could be the movie that introduces Steven Spielberg to an entirely new generation of moviegoers.
- Release Date
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June 12, 2026
- Runtime
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145 Minutes
Cast
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Josh O’Connor
Daniel Kellner
