Santa rally building in the stock market
A Santa rally may be building in Europe’s financial markets today, despite worries about the economic outlook and political instability in France and Germany.
In London, the FTSE 100 share index has risen to a six-week high this morning, up 56 points or 0.7% at 8369 points.
Budget airline easyJet is the top riser (+4%), after a stock upgrade from UBS, with mining company Antofagasta (+2.3%) and banks Barclays (+1.9%) and NatWest (+1.8%) not far behind.
In Berlin, Germany’s benchmark DAX stock index has broken through the 20,000-point barrier for the first time, despite the recent government collapse that has led to a new election being called for next February.
Paris’s CAC 40 has gained 0.6% today; risers include luxury goods makers Hermes and LVMH, on hopes of more stimulus measures in China.
Europe’s gains follow a strong day on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq finished at new all-time closing highs last night.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, says:
December is Santa rally territory and so far, it’s got off to a good start. European equity markets are a sea of green on Tuesday, and French markets are bouncing back.
For now, the markets are ignoring the geopolitical risks bubbling around the world. The French government is poised to collapse at some point this week, and China has decided to ban the export to the US of some items that can be used for military purposes, including gallium, geranium and other superhard materials.
It will also use implement a stricter screening process for graphite exports to the US, which is a crucial input to produce lithium batteries. It will be interesting to see how Elon Musk reacts to this, and it suggests that the rest of the world will meet President Trump’s war on global trade blow for blow.
French stocks are rallying despite the prospect of Michel Barnier’s government falling this week.
Yesterday, leftwing and far-right parties lodged motions of no confidence after Barnier decided to push through a belt-tightening budget without a vote.
Mujtaba Rahman. managing director of Eurasia Group, reckons Barnier has only a 20% chance of surviving the censure vote on Wednesday afternoon. If his government falls, all Barnier’s unfinished legislation—including the rest of the 2025 budget plan—falls too.
Rahman says:
France now faces its second period of political turmoil in less than five months at a time of gathering international crisis; President Emmanuel Macron will have to appoint a new Prime Minister rapidly—just possibly Barnier again but more likely a stopgap figure—in order to pass emergency tax legislation to keep the French government functioning beyond 1 January.
Key events
BBVA CEO still mulling whether to sell TSB
Kalyeena Makortoff
The CEO of BBVA says he has not yet decided whether he will sell UK high street lender TSB if his bank succeeds in its $13bn hostile takeover of rival and TSB owner Sabadell.
Onur Genc told the FT Banking Summit that he was “neutral” about whether to keep TSB in any future combined banking group:
“We have to see once we complete the deal.”
He insisted that his main focus is on bolstering its operations across Spain.
“Local scale is important and that’s why we are doing the deal”
Last week, the European Commission said it did not have any objections to the takeover of Sabadell – the Spanish lender that was created in 1881 by 127 families in Catalonia – after completing a foreign subsidies review.However, the bid still faces a longer antitrust review by Spain’s competition watchdog, the CNMC, that could extend the process well into next year.
A sale of TSB would mark the third major ownership change for the UK bank, which was hived off from Lloyds in 2013 as part of efforts to boost competition following its £20.3bn government bailout in 2008.
TSB returned as a standalone high street bank nearly 20 years after it was snapped up by Lloyds in 1995. Led by chief executive Paul Pester, the new TSB spanned 631 branches and boasted 8,500 staff.
It eventually floated on the UK stock exchange in 2014, but was bought by Sabadell a year later, marking one of the biggest cross-border banking deals since the financial crisis.
Sabadell explored a potential sale of the bank in 2020 but later abandoned those plans, even as it continued to nurse the fallout of a major IT meltdown in 2018.
The oil price is also rallying today, but Opec+ – rather than Santa – is responsible.
The oil producers’ cartel and its allies are due to meet on Thursday, and is expected to extend its latest round of oil output cuts until the end of the first quarter.
Opec+ had been hoping to unwind its recent output cuts, but is rethinking that plan as global demand slows, and output rises among non-Opec members.
Brent crude is up 1%, or 70 cents per barrel, at $72.55/barrel.
Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, explains:
Elevated interest rates, a strong US dollar, and weak global economic growth are weighing on the oil market from the demand side of things. On the supply side, with US output already at record levels in 2024, the risk of market oversupply looms unless global growth picks up or OPEC+ implements significant production cuts. Adding to the uncertainty, speculation around a potential second Trump term has fuelled expectations of higher US oil production.
This makes the OPEC’s job quite tough, complicating the crude oil forecast: does it want to achieve higher oil prices but lose market share to US shale producers, or allow oil prices to fall to potentially support demand?
Well, according to Reuters, the OPEC+ is reportedly considering postponing the planned production hike for January, something which is now the base case scenario for many oil analysts. This decision, tied to resolving issues like the UAE’s agreed production increase for 2025, is expected to be finalized at the December 5 meeting. However, a substantial delay will be necessary to meaningfully support prices; otherwise, oil could quickly resume its downward trajectory amid persistent macroeconomic pressures.
Kalyeena Makortoff
Barclays CEO CS Venkatakrishnan says banks have to be alive to potential risks when working with firms in the shadow banking sector, including private equity houses and private credit providers.
Regulated lenders like Barclays have been trying to ensure they don’t miss out on the financial successes of the less regulated non-bank financial institutions.
But Venkatakrishan said banks have to be aware of the activities of companies they lend to, and be careful about how concentrated their operations are. Speaking at the FT Banking Summit this morning, he said:
“Absolutey it’s a risk…you have to be careful.”
That means screening those firms in the same way they would any other client, he explained:
“Whether we deal with private credit funds or private equity funds or we deal with industrial companies, you’ve got to understand the business they’re in. Decide how much you’re still willing to lend to them. Make sure you’ve got good collateral. Ensure you monitor it. Make sure you understand the ins and outs, choose your clients carefully.
That’s the basics of banking. That’s what we should have been doing, and should do, for the last couple of 100 years, and the next couple of 100 years. Those things don’t change.”
His comments come just days after the Bank of England released the results of their first stress test into the shadow banking sector. It found that hedge funds, pension funds and other companies in the largely unregulated sector were at risk of amplifying market shocks and triggering a £17bn asset sell-off.
It seems that equity traders are not that concerned about Trump’s tariff policies, suggests Charalampos Pissouros, senior market analyst at XM:
They may even feel confident that, if he is sticking to his tariff pledges, he will be similarly determined to proceed with the massive tax cuts as well.
With regards to a potential Fed pause [to US interest rates], given that equity traders are longer-term investors than forex participants, they may not care that much about delayed rate cuts, as long as the rate path remains to the downside.
Recent analysis from Nutmeg, the digital wealth manager owned by J.P. Morgan, shows that the Santa Rally is stronger in the City than in other markets.
The FTSE 100 share index has delivered positive returns in December more often than its peer group, and has outperformed both the S&P 500 and Japan Index during December.
Pacome Breton, head of portfolio management at J.P. Morgan owned digital wealth manager, Nutmeg, said:
“While the Santa Rally has been an attractive theory for investors to believe in over the last few years, and there is some logic to this belief, it is clear from the data that market performance in December can be volatile.”
But Breton warns that after a strong November, following Donald Trump’s election win, December could be quieter across markets, “as investors take a deeper look at what 2025 could bring for central banks, geopolitics and the future of the world’s largest economy.”
Photo: DAX hits 20,000 points
Here’s the moment the German DAX share index hit a new all-time high this morning, hitting 20,000 points for the first time:
The rally means the DAX has now risen by around 3,000 points over the course of 2024, after cracking the 17,000-point mark in December 2023.
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says:
December is here, and while the famed “Santa rally” doesn’t typically kick in until Christmas week, this remains the most likely month for market gains.
For US markets, positive economic data – including strong manufacturing and consumer spending – helped kick things off yesterday evening, though rising yields and tariff uncertainty kept investors on edge. Large-cap techs led the charge, but geopolitical tensions and the new US administration are shaping up to be the real drivers in the weeks ahead.
Santa rally building in the stock market
A Santa rally may be building in Europe’s financial markets today, despite worries about the economic outlook and political instability in France and Germany.
In London, the FTSE 100 share index has risen to a six-week high this morning, up 56 points or 0.7% at 8369 points.
Budget airline easyJet is the top riser (+4%), after a stock upgrade from UBS, with mining company Antofagasta (+2.3%) and banks Barclays (+1.9%) and NatWest (+1.8%) not far behind.
In Berlin, Germany’s benchmark DAX stock index has broken through the 20,000-point barrier for the first time, despite the recent government collapse that has led to a new election being called for next February.
Paris’s CAC 40 has gained 0.6% today; risers include luxury goods makers Hermes and LVMH, on hopes of more stimulus measures in China.
Europe’s gains follow a strong day on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq finished at new all-time closing highs last night.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, says:
December is Santa rally territory and so far, it’s got off to a good start. European equity markets are a sea of green on Tuesday, and French markets are bouncing back.
For now, the markets are ignoring the geopolitical risks bubbling around the world. The French government is poised to collapse at some point this week, and China has decided to ban the export to the US of some items that can be used for military purposes, including gallium, geranium and other superhard materials.
It will also use implement a stricter screening process for graphite exports to the US, which is a crucial input to produce lithium batteries. It will be interesting to see how Elon Musk reacts to this, and it suggests that the rest of the world will meet President Trump’s war on global trade blow for blow.
French stocks are rallying despite the prospect of Michel Barnier’s government falling this week.
Yesterday, leftwing and far-right parties lodged motions of no confidence after Barnier decided to push through a belt-tightening budget without a vote.
Mujtaba Rahman. managing director of Eurasia Group, reckons Barnier has only a 20% chance of surviving the censure vote on Wednesday afternoon. If his government falls, all Barnier’s unfinished legislation—including the rest of the 2025 budget plan—falls too.
Rahman says:
France now faces its second period of political turmoil in less than five months at a time of gathering international crisis; President Emmanuel Macron will have to appoint a new Prime Minister rapidly—just possibly Barnier again but more likely a stopgap figure—in order to pass emergency tax legislation to keep the French government functioning beyond 1 January.
Tiz the season for annual forecasts, and investment bank Saxo has got into the Christmas spirit by releasing its latest Outrageous Predictions, for 2025.
These are events which are highly unlikely, but not impossible, and which would send shockwaves across financial markets if they did occur. The kind of things to keep at the back of the mind, just in case.
And here’s this year’s list:
-
Trump 2.0 blows up the US dollar
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Nvidia balloons to twice the value of Apple
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China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate economy
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First bio-printed human heart ushers in new era of longevity
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Electrification boom ends OPEC
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US imposes AI data centre tax as power prices run wild
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A natural disaster bankrupts a large insurance company for the first time
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Pound erases post-Brexit discounts versus the Euro
You can read all the details here.
Anti-Barclays protets at FT Banking Summit
Kalyeena Makortoff
Protesters are out in full force ahead of an appearance by Barclays CEO CS Venkatakrishnan at the FT Banking Summit in London this morning.
Dozens of activists are gathered outside of the Convene Centre near St Pauls – next to the London Stock Exchange – where Venkatakrishan is due to be interviewed as part of the FT Banking Summit at 10:15am.
They’re protesting what they claim is the UK bank’s support for arms companies supplying Israel in its attacks on Palestinians in Gaza.
Barclays has long been a target for both climate and anti-war campaigners, some of whom have vandalised Barclays branches across the UK in protest. Venkatakrishnan has continued to condemn their behaviour, and said this summer that he believed public opinion was more balanced that the protesters would lead some to believe.
