Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Why each favorite can lift the trophy

The grandest prize in soccer is moving just into reach for some of the planet’s best footballers. It’s going to be a long old slog, but there are 26 players out there who are just eight games from winning the World Cup. It is pretty easy to puzzle out the select few squads it might be, probably even more so in this tournament than any else.

World Cups aren’t conducive to upsets anyway. Perhaps the de facto final of 1950 has a case given that it was on Brazil’s home turf and Uruguay ended the previous year ranked 23 by Elo rating. That is probably about it unless you want to make a really generous argument for Brazil being underdogs 52 years later given the turbulence of their road to South Korea and Japan.

Add another round of games and that’s another roadblock for any Cinderella story teams intent on making it to the ball in New Jersey on July 19. And look, if we’re calling a spade a spade, there probably aren’t 10 teams with a very real prospect of winning this World Cup. But when you see who the 10th* most likely team to win the World Cup are according to the bookmakers, perhaps you’ll forgive us dragging it out a little bit. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

*They’re 12th now, odds are changing fast as the main event approaches, and we’re running as fast as we can to keep up. But darned if we’re not gonna keep on keeping on to keep them on the list.

1. Spain (+450): The whole package

A World Cup in a North American summer is going to take a lot out of its participants. Its winners will probably be the team who can best conserve their energy over the gruelling course. That’s Spain, who may not be the remorselessly conservative tiki taka unit of the 2010s, but who would probably have that gear if that is what they needed to use it. Take this team’s 2-1 win over France in the Euro 2024 semifinals. Once they had gotten out in front, Luis de la Fuente’s side got into their possession game, grinding away the minutes in their own third and the middle of the pitch, shutting the superstars on the other team out of the action.

At the 2024 Euros Spain ranked third for possession, third in terms of field tilt when measured as touches in the final third vs. touches allowed in their third and fourth for expected goals. These numbers are all the more notable given that the eventual champions had to reach the final third the hard way, getting past Croatia and Italy in the group stages before beating Germany, France and England in the knockouts. Against such high quality teams they also averaged 10% more possession recoveries in the attacking third than any other team in the field. They made sure the game happened where they wanted it to.,

Then again, if you manage to drag Spain into a track meet they might still be able to blow you apart in that fashion. Pedri is one of the best creative midfielders in the world, and if he is fit, Lamine Yamal can take a game away from anyone. Ferran Torres, Dani Olmo and Mikel Oyarzabal are among the many complementary pieces. The other way that you win a track meet is by being better at the other end, which Spain could certainly be if they chose to play David Raya in goal. Unai Simon, the current incumbent, isn’t bad either.

Why would Spain win the World Cup? Because they are probably the best national side in the world.

2. France (+450): The talent

If you want to understand how gaudily talented Didier Deschamps’ squad is don’t look at the starting XI, which might well see the Ballon d’Or-holding Ousmane Dembele flanked by Kylian Mbappe and Michael Olise. Look at the bench. You could imagine a world where Marcus Thuram, for instance, doesn’t start a single game at the tournament. He is probably first change at center forward but every minute he gets will mean a decision to field him over Bradley Barcola, Jean-Philippe Mateta and Desire Doue, if not others. And this is the statistical profile of this probable bench contributor.

That seems tantamount to unfair. Les Bleus lost Hugo Ekitike before the tournament began and might barely notice his absence. There’s gaudy depth at center back too. Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba could each make a case for themselves as the best center back currently playing — the latter’s would be more convincing — and they might have to battle with Ibrahima Konate for a starting spot. The outstanding Maxence Lacroix would get into almost any other team at this tournament.

The talent is there in abundance. The question for 2026 is the same it has been for the last 14 years. Can Didier Deschamps effectively corral it into the best XI?

3. England (+725): Set pieces

We are still firmly in the group who have all sorts of reasons why they might win the World Cup. England might win it because they have the best pure tactician in the field as a manager in Thomas Tuchel. He’s a Champions League-winner whose teams tend to be as adept at imposing their will on lesser outfits as they are at adapting in big games. If any team can argue it matches France in quality, it might be the one that has just left Cole Palmer, Phil Foden and Morgan Gibbs-White at home. All that and this is a team that can exploit the more straightforward aspects of the game. Tuchel won’t need to spend all day drilling England for set pieces. He can just set up his men in and around the six-yard box and trust that Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka can do the rest.

There was more to the success of these two at club level than spamming corners into the meat wall, but it’s also not unreasonable to expect England to lean heavily into the remarkable success that Saka and Rice enjoyed at Arsenal. These are two players who can put their deliveries on a dime and who will have the likes of Jude Bellingham, Marc Guehi and Harry Kane to aim at in congested penalty areas. Best of all, this is not a facet of the game that will demand the sessions on the training ground that Tuchel (and all international managers) simply won’t have time for. This could be a quick win and England have too shrewd a manager to let them past.

4. Argentina (+850): 🐐

Lionel Messi probably is not the player he was in 2022 when his brilliance radiated across Argentina‘s triumph. I say probably because it’s really hard to know for sure. It is not like there is anyone else in MLS who can hold him to his usual standards.

Just how great Messi still is, we shall see. It is worth noting that in the Copa America two years ago he averaged 0.82 non-penalty expected goals and expected assists combined even if he only had two goals and assists combined. Those underlying metrics would suggest his performances hold up. What also seems true is that those around him still seem to raise their game because they are playing with the great man. Since the World Cup Argentina have lost only two games of 26 games in which he has featured, as many as in 11 games without him. His teammates adore him and raise their game to play with him. He makes those around him better. How much better will determine whether Argentina can win the World Cup.

5. Brazil (+900): The right manager for the occasion

We are now 20 years into Brazil’s search for a sixth World Cup. The gap between their most recent triumph and the present day is the joint-longest it has been without the biggest prize in the sport since Brazil first won the tournament in 1958. It might be a stretch to say that the pressure is getting to this team, but their North America-bound jet was doused with holy water before takeoff. From multiple angles. It’s not the most chill thing you’ll ever see.

So yes, things are getting really rather intense around Brazil. The weight of expectation could crush most coaches. This is win or draw the ire of hundreds of millions territory. Or as Carlo Ancelotti calls it, Friday. Don Carlo is not necessarily the man to make the game-changing tactical adjustment with half an hour to play. He has never really radically altered the way the game is played.

What Ancelotti has repeatedly done, in particular at Real Madrid, Chelsea and AC Milan, is make the pressure that little bit lighter on the shoulders of his players. He finds a system that makes most of his star players happy. He manages the media such that the spectre of Neymar inhibits neither the man himself nor those he is competing with for a spot. These soft skills matter a lot over the course of a season. They might matter even more when a team is cooped up together in a foreign land for six weeks, flying from coast to coast with thousands of cameras in their face. Ancelotti should make this most testing of circumstances that little bit more bearable.

6. Portugal (+1000): The midfielders

The best tackling midfielder in the world last season? That might be Joao Neves. The best tempo-dictating midfielder in the world last season? That’s probably Vitinha. The best chance-creating midfielder in the world last season? Bruno Fernandes, almost certainly. All that and those three have Bernardo Silva for company. That’s how you run football matches.

With Portugal the issue is the same issue it has been for the best part of a decade. Do all the supporting players, stars in their own right, get subsumed and inhibited by their exposure to Cristiano Ronaldo? Do Fernandes, Neves, Vitinha, plus Rafael Leao on the wing deliver less of who they are because so many attacking moves seem to come with the requirement that they end in a shot for Ronaldo? This is particularly the case with someone like Fernandes. Note how exceptionally he profiles against his Premier League peers for passing over the top. Good luck getting a 41-year-old with the best part of 1500 games in his legs to chase down those passes.

7. Germany (+1300): Being Germany

Before a ball has been kicked, it seems there is a notable drop-off from an inner circle of six contenders to the rest. Germany probably should be treated as outsiders for this tournament. That they won’t be — who would ever write off the Germans at a major tournament — might help them get a run going.

For the most part, this looks like a team that is a little bit too heavy on certain archetypes and light on others. A center back depth chart that includes Antonio Rudiger, Jonathan Tah and Nico Schlotterback is encouraging and there is so much ball-playing talent in central areas that you can probably live with Joshua Kimmich playing wide. Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala, who needs to pick up some form after a tough year, make for a great supply line for forwards. Then again Germany’s best option up top is probably an injury-addled Kai Havertz and the rest of the squad is not overwhelmingly stocked with players who move away from the ball at pace.

That’s the issue, but this is a German squad that have been around the block, that pushed eventual finalists close in each of the last three European championships and played out a cracking match against Portugal in the semifinals of the 2025 Nations League. 

8. Netherlands (+2200): The defense

Most bookmakers have the Dutch behind the Germans as favorites and you can probably see why. Their qualifying campaign was pretty underwhelming and they very nearly humiliated themselves in Lithuania. The No.9 and No.10 shirts are still going to Wout Weghorst and Memphis Depay, though Donyell Malen and Crysencio Summerville will surely feel like their form in the final few months of the season can earn themselves a start.

Really, though, the ace card for the Dutch is at the back of the pitch. The seven defenders Ronald Koeman has named in his squad are all of the highest quality. Virgil van Dijk may be starting to show his age in the more high-octane Premier League, but his class should still shine through this summer, particularly if he has Micky van de Ven outside him applying the afterburners. Jurrien Timber might play at center back, or he could offer a different sort of right back style to Denzel Dumfries. We haven’t even got to Jan Paul van Hecke, Nathan Ake or Jorrel Hato. That is a backline that can break pressure, dictate tempo and shut down opposing attacks. Behind them Bart Verbruggen profiles as the likely starter and was ranked third in the Premier League in terms of goals prevented, trailing only Senne Lammens and Gianluigi Donnarumma. Robin Roefs wasn’t too bad either.

Over the course of a whole tournament, the Dutch probably won’t have enough in attack to break open the one or two games they might need. You could easily imagine the defense making one mistake against a relative minnow in the round of 32 and the Netherlands never finding a way back into the game. Profiling as a team that might only concede one goal in a big game, though, is pretty good in knockout competitions. This side may have a puncher’s chance.

9. Norway (+3000): Erling Haaland

Also Martin Odegaard.

10. Belgium (+3500): Nope

Look, they’re here because they’re the tenth favorites to win the tournament and we might as well talk about the 12th.

11. Colombia (+4000): There were too many Euro teams in a row

Can they win? See above.

12. U.S.A. (+5000): Events so unlikely that they are interpreted as miracles do actually happen

We might never have had such an outsider win a World Cup, but stranger things have happened in the history of planet Earth than a 2% chance coming good. If a man can win the lottery twice in the same year then the United States men’s national team can win the World Cup. After all, they have a squad that is not short on players who know what it is to face off against the best of the best. Antonee Robinson, Christian Pulisic, Chris Richards: these may not be the best players on the planet, but they are used to playing against them. There shouldn’t be any cause for fear.

Anyway, the advantage of hosting the tournament is you get to be seeded at the group stage and while Turkiye pose their problems you would probably make the hosts favorite to top Group G. That means a third-placed team in the round of 32 and quite possibly Belgium in the last 16. As you might have established, I’m not sure they’re up to much. The European side would be the favorites in a prospective matchup, but not by a long way.

Then as we get deeper into the tournament, the difficulty level ratchets up. However, give Mauricio Pochettino his 11 best players, fully fit and roared on by a crowd that has finally swung behind the team, and they can have maybe a fighter’s chance (not a good fighter mind, but nevertheless) against anyone they draw. Winning three such games, well that’s a very unlikely event. That we haven’t seen one such event in the last 22 World Cups doesn’t mean we can guarantee they won’t this time. The USMT: you never know.