Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is in the lead in the New York gubernatorial race against incumbent New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, according to a recent survey.
The Oct. 28 poll, released by the conservative Manhattan Institute, shows Stefanik leading Hochul, a Democrat, by 1 percentage point (43–42) among registered voters.
The Republican representative has a bigger lead (43–37) over Antonio Delgado, Hochul’s former lieutenant governor and a primary challenger.
The 2026 election is still more than a year away, and the 1-point lead is within the poll’s 3 percent margin of error, but the pollsters said that “these findings underscore that New York’s next statewide race could be its most competitive in decades.”
These results are a major change from a Siena College poll taken in early August that showed Hochul in the lead by 14 points, although that was down from a 23-point lead in June.
“New York City voters remain solidly behind Hochul, however downstate suburban voters went from favoring Hochul by 11 points in June to narrowly favoring Stefanik now, and upstate voters had given Hochul a 12-point lead, and are now virtually evenly divided,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said after the August poll.
Stefanik has been touting her support on social media for the Republican agenda, citing “The painful #SchumerShutdown aided and abetted by the Worst Governor in America @KathyHochul who throws New Yorkers under the bus at every opportunity.”
The Republican gubernatorial candidate said that the shutdown is “HURTING New Yorkers and the American people,” and “crushing small businesses.”
Hochul, on the other hand, is reminding voters of her support for Planned Parenthood, and a suit filed by the state to push the Trump administration to resume food stamp benefits even during the shutdown, which has stretched on for 29 days, with 13 failed bids to pass a funding bill in the Senate.
The current governor has placed blame on “Stefanik and D.C Republicans,” saying they would “rather shut down the government than lower your health care costs.”
Hochul has thrown her political support behind New York City Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Kwame Mamdani, a socialist, last month, saying that she and Mamdani don’t agree on every issue but share many priorities.
Stefanik announced the day before the poll was published that her debut book, “Poisoned Ivies,” will be published in April of 2026.
The publisher, Simon & Schuster, said the book explains “how America’s elite universities, once proud symbols of academic excellence, have become centers of far-left indoctrination, division, and moral rot.”
