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Developing Nor’easter Could Bring First Snow, Heavy Rain, and Coastal Flooding to Northeast

A developing nor’easter could bring the season’s first snow to parts of the Northeast later this week, along with widespread rain, gusty winds, and possible coastal flooding.

The storm is expected to arrive just after Wednesday’s Veterans Day parades and ceremonies, develop Thursday, and continue into the weekend, with snowfall most likely in mountainous areas of New York and New England.

“An early season accumulation of snow is likely across northern and high terrain areas for Thursday into Friday thanks to a storm system passing to the south. However, there remains a large amount of uncertainty regarding if rain will change over to snow and accumulate in valley areas,” the National Weather Service (NWS) in Albany, New York, said Nov. 11
The storm is expected to take shape as a low-pressure area moves east from the Ohio Valley on Thursday, bringing rain to parts of the Northeast. By Thursday night, the system could strengthen into a coastal storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast before moving northeast toward Atlantic Canada on Friday, according to NWS in Albany.

Some of the first snow could arrive Thursday in the highest elevations of the southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains, where an inch or less is possible during the day. As colder air moves into the region, precipitation could change from rain to wet snow in higher elevations Thursday night into Friday.

NWS in Albany said those mountain areas have a 60 to 70 percent chance of receiving at least 2 inches of snow during the storm. Accumulation is most likely above 1,500 feet, while valleys could see a rain-snow mix by Friday night.

Rain is a bigger concern at lower elevations and in major metropolitan areas. NWS in New York said the system could bring rain and gusty winds Thursday into early Saturday.

Coastal communities could face minor flooding during high tides Thursday and Friday, particularly along Long Island’s South Shore and the southwestern Connecticut coast, according to the NWS in New York.

Rain is expected to affect much of the Northeast on Thursday and Friday, and higher elevations could receive wet snow. Conditions are expected to improve across much of the Northeast by Sunday, according to the NWS. Rain is expected to taper off across New York City by early Saturday.
The storm arrives weeks before meteorological winter, which runs from December through February. In its winter outlook released Oct. 15, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the northern United States and wetter-than-average conditions across the South and along the East Coast.

NOAA’s winter outlook this year is influenced by a very strong El Niño, a climate pattern expected to shift the jet stream southward and eastward—increasing the likelihood of stormier weather across the southern United States this winter season.



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