Key events
UK retail sales data delayed by two weeks
The Office for National Statistics has delayed the publication of the latest retail sales data by two weeks.
The statistics office said the July figures will now be released on 5 September, rather than this Friday, “to allow for further quality assurance”.
In June, a scathing report by Sir Robert Devereux, a retired career civil servant, said the UK’s main statistics body needs a £10m overhaul and its top role split in two after a series of management failings and errors that have plagued the organisation for several years.
Officials at the Bank of England and the Treasury, MPs and City analysts have criticised the ONS’s operations after its surveys were hit by falling participation rates among businesses and the public during the pandemic, leading to questions about the validity of its data.
The ONS, which is based in Newport, south Wales, has sought to increase the rate of responses to its surveys, but with only limited success.
In particular, its labour market data showing the level of employment in the UK economy have been heavily revised in recent years.
European shares rise to highest since early March; defence stocks down
With traders hoping for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, Europe’s Stoxx 600 index of leading European shares has hit its highest level since early March, rising by 0.6%.
Defence stocks are falling as de-escalation could reduce the need for military assets, with BAE Systems dropping 3.6%, Rheinmetall losing 4.2% and Thales shares down 3.5%.
Fiona Cioncotta, market analyst at City Index, said:
The Dax is edging higher around the 24,400 level as optimism surrounding a Russia-Ukraine peace deal was offset by caution ahead of this week’s PMI releases and the Jackson Hole symposium.
Investors continue to weigh up the possibility of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine after an encouraging meeting between Zelenski and Trump at the White House. Trump told his Ukrainian counterpart that the US would help guarantee Ukraine’s security in any peace deal to end the war.
A trilateral meeting is expected with Putin within the next few weeks to begin negotiations.
Sterling has edged 0.1% higher against the dollar to $1.3515, ahead of tomorrow’s UK inflation figures.
Francesco Pesole, currency strategist at ING, said:
While the path to peace in Ukraine appears somewhat clearer following last Friday’s and Monday’s summits, markets remain cautious. This is understandable, given that the most challenging negotiations – particularly over territorial issues – are still ahead of us.
You can follow the latest on our Europe live blog here:
Bank holiday weekend travel disruption expected on British roads and rail
Holidaymakers in Britain have been warned they could face delays when travelling this weekend as the weight of almost 18m car journeys and widespread rail engineering works are expected to cause disruption over the August bank holiday, celebrated in England and Wales.
Plus ça change…
The RAC said drivers should set off as early as possible to avoid heavy traffic, particularly on major routes to airports and coastal areas. The south-east and south-west of England are expected to see the heaviest congestion.
Heavy traffic is expected on the M5 between Bristol and Devon, according to the transport analytics company Inrix. On Friday and Saturday there are likely to be holdups of more than 40 minutes on the stretch between junction 15 north of Bristol and junction 23 for Bridgewater.
On Friday, drivers making Channel crossings via Dover or Folkestone are expected to face delays exceeding 30 minutes on the M20 in Kent.
Scrapping of audit watchdog for English councils ‘led to soaring costs and chaos’
David Cameron’s “bonfire of the quangos” decision to abolish England’s council spending watchdog has left a broken system that is costing taxpayers more money than it was promised to save.
In a highly critical report, academics at the University of Sheffield said the coalition government of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats had promised savings of £100m a year by abolishing the Audit Commission.
However, replacing the public body with a private-sector model had resulted in “chaos” and soaring costs to audit councils amid the financial crisis hitting England’s town halls.
Several councils have declared effective bankruptcy linked to years of austerity, soaring costs amid pressure on services, as well as local missteps. They include Birmingham, Nottingham and Woking.
The FTSE 100 index is now up 0.3%, or 26 points, at 9,1983 while the Dax in Frankfurt is 0.2% ahead, and the CAC in Paris and the FTSE MiB in Milan have both gained around 0.7%.
Joshua Mahony, market analyst at Scope Markets, has looked at today’s equity market moves:
A mixed bag in Europe this morning, with early gains fading for the Dax despite apparent progress being made as Trump pushes Ukraine towards a deal that could end the war.
Curiously, some of the best performing stocks in Europe this year have been defence and military names, with the drag provided by BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, and Thales highlighting that the war has actually been a tailwind for equities as governments ramp up fiscal expenditure in a bid to support the Ukrainian efforts.
With Hamas apparently agreeing to a ceasefire proposal, and efforts to end the Ukraine-Russia war seemingly making headway, traders are left wondering exactly what the implications could be for financial markets should both conflicts draw to a close. The weakness seen in oil prices highlight an easing of concerns and potential rise in supply.
However, it is worthwhile noting that from a European perspective, a deal to end the war could actually provide a drag on markets as a sharp run higher for defence stocks reverse course.
FTSE 100 flat, oil prices fall
The FTSE 100 index has opened flat, with JD Sports leading gains, up nearly 5%, after a broker upgrade from Deutsche Bank. The German market is also flat while the French bourse has gained 0.5%.
Oil prices are falling again, with Brent crude down by 0.8% at $66.08 a barrel, reversing after a 1% gain yesterday as developing Ukraine talks increase the chances of an end to Russian crude sanctions, said Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor.
She added:
BHP Group reported annual profit of $10.16 billion down 26% year-on-year, hitting a five year low and falling short of analysts’ expectations on the back of weak iron ore prices which fell nearly 20% over the year. However the dividend came in a bit higher than anticipated, helping to support shares.
US-brokered peace negotiations to try to end the Russia-Ukraine war continue to dominate. It looks like talks are making progress after a constructive meeting between Trump and Zelensky which the President of Ukraine described as the ‘best’ so far. However so far, no peace deal or ceasefire has been agreed.
Trump said on Truth Social that he ‘began the arrangements’ for a summit with Zelensky and Putin. Meanwhile Ukraine reportedly offered a $100bn weapons deal to the US in return for security guarantees. European leaders have also been involved in talks in Washington but they have disagreed with Trump over the need for a ceasefire. However Trump suggested that the US might help with security guarantees for Ukraine.
US futures are pointing to a softer open as markets await a key gathering of central bankers at the Jackson Hole summit. It comes after US indices were broadly flat on Monday.
Sarah Butler
The report also showed that Lidl is set to overtake Morrisons to become the UK’s fifth biggest supermarket with sales growth ahead of all its major rivals over the summer as shoppers search for ways to offset higher bills.
The German-owned discounter increased sales by 10.7% in the three months to 11 August, according to the latest market share data from analysts at Worldpanel, formerly known as Kantar, more than double the pace of the wider market which rose 4.5%.
That put Lidl within 0.1 percentage points of matching Morrisons’ market share of 8.4% as the Bradford-based chain continued to struggle with sales up just 0.9%.
Morrisons is trying to turn around performance after building up debts in a £7bn takeover by US private equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice in 2021.
The UK’s number three chain, Asda also continues to have difficulties with sales down 2.6% despite efforts to turn around performance by chairman Allan Leighton. It is now in danger of being overtaken by discounter Aldi, which is just 1 percentage point behind it on market share with growth of 4.8%.
Both Aldi and Lidl continue to rapidly open stores, putting them on track to enter the top tier of British supermarkets and disrupt the traditional “big four”.
Both Asda and Morrisons’ growth is behind the 5% level of grocery inflation registered in August by Worldpanel suggesting the amount of items they sold has dropped.
Grocery price inflation in Britain eases slightly to 5%, survey shows
Grocery price inflation in Great Britain has eased slightly but remains high, according to a monthly survey.
Annual grocery price inflation slipped to 5% in the four weeks to 10 August, from 5.2% in July, said retail analysts Worldpanel by Numerator, formerly known as Kantar.
Prices are rising fastest for chocolate confectionery, fresh meat and coffee, and are falling fastest in champagne & sparkling wine, dog food and sugar confectionery.
The Bank of England expressed concerns around rising food prices, but still cut interest rates at its meeting on 7 August.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said:
We’ve seen a marginal drop in grocery price inflation this month, but we’re still well past the point at which price rises really start to bite and consumers are continuing to adapt their behaviour to make ends meet. What people pay for their supermarket shopping often impacts their spending across other parts of the high street too, including their eating and drinking habits out of the home.
Casual and fast service restaurants especially have seen a decline in visitors over the summer, with trips falling by 6% during the three months to mid-July – compared with last year. The outliers in this are coffee shops which have bucked the trend.
Introduction: SoftBank invests $2bn in Intel; proposed new UK property tax ‘could cut cost of buying expensive homes’
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Japan’s SoftBank has agreed to invest $2bn (£1.5bn) in Intel, the struggling US chip company, while the Trump administration is reportedly considering a 10% stake in the business by converting Chips Act subsidies into equity. That would make Washington Intel’s largest shareholder.
The Japanese technology investor announced its multi-billion dollar deal, amounting to a 2% stake in Intel, on Tuesday, describing Intel as a “trusted leader in innovation”. Intel shares fell by 5% while SoftBank shares were down 4%, retreating from all-time highs.
Masayoshi Son, SoftBank’s chairman and chief executive, said:
Semiconductors are the foundation of every industry. For more than 50 years, Intel has been a trusted leader in innovation. This strategic investment reflects our belief that advanced semiconductor manufacturing and supply will further expand in the United States, with Intel playing a critical role.
All eyes were on Washington yesterday, where Donald Trump met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and seven European leaders to discuss a peace deal in Ukraine. According to Trump, Vladimir Putin wants to do face-to-face talks with the Ukrainian president, although Moscow has not confirmed the meeting. (Trump called Putin during his meeting with the Europeans, but some experts are sceptical.)
Traders are cautious, with most Asian stock markets slightly lower. Japan’s Nikkei fell by 0.4% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped by 0.3%.
Here’s some reaction to our scoop yesterday that the UK Treasury is considering a new tax on the sale of homes worth more than £500,000 as a step towards a radical overhaul of stamp duty and council tax.
David Fell from Hamptons told the Times:
Who is better off will come down to how closely the government chooses to follow any recommendations. But I think in response to the general principle, the shift would probably cut the cost of buying the most expensive homes, but add to the annual cost of ownership, particularly given the artificially low levels of council tax charged by many places that have the most expensive house prices.
The impact of a change to the system would probably depend on the level at which the rates were set, and the length of time it takes for the higher ownership charges to outweigh existing stamp duty and council tax bills.
The Agenda
