Europe has ‘maybe 6 weeks of jet fuel left,’ energy agency head warns
The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that Europe has about six weeks of jet fuel left.
In an interview with Associated Press published today, IEA executive director Fatih Birol warned that flight cancellations could begin “soon” if oil supplies remain blocked by the Iran war.
Birol said Europe has “maybe 6 weeks or so (of) jet fuel left,” after the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz led to “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced.”
He told AP that the impact will be “higher petrol (gasoline) prices, higher gas prices, high electricity prices,” adding that some parts of the world will be hit worse than others.
“The front line is the Asian countries” that rely on energy from the Middle East, he said, naming Japan, Korea, India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh, adding:
“Then it will come to Europe and the Americas.”
And if the strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened, Birol said that for Europe:
“I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel.”
The US is currently blockading Iranian ports, whiel Tehran has laid mines in the vital waterway to restrict traffic through the strait.
Yesterday, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that the disruption from the Middle East conflict would continue even after the war stops, explaining:
“We need to recognise disruptions are not going to evaporate overnight even if the war ends tomorrow. Why? Because a tanker is a slow-moving vessel. It would take 40 days to get all the way to Fiji.”
Key events
KLM cancels 160 flights in coming month due to rising fuel costs
Dutch airline KLM is to cancel 160 flights in Europe in the coming month due to rising fuel costs.
The Dutch arm of airline group Air France KLM said the cancellations affected less than 1% of its total European flights. KLM also said it was not experiencing a shortage of jet fuel (via Reuters).
Oil rises as Hegseth says US is ‘locked and loaded’ to finish the job
The oil price has pushed higher, after some combative comments from US defense secretary Pete Hegseth.
Hegseth said Iran could settle the conflict “the nice way,” through a deal “or we can do it the hard way.” He also pledged to maintain the blockade on Iranian ports.
My colleague Joseph Gedeon reports:
Iran’s energy infrastructure is “not destroyed yet” and the US is “locked and loaded” to finish the job, Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary, said on Thursday as he called many of the press corps gathered the moral equivalent of the Pharisees who conspired to destroy Jesus Christ.
Hegseth’s comments from the Pentagon podium came as a naval blockade of Iranian ports began this week and he called on Tehran to accept a nuclear deal or face consequences for its remaining infrastructure, power generation and energy industry.
“We are reloading with more power than ever before, and better intelligence, even more importantly, better intelligence than ever before,” he said.
“You are digging out your remaining launchers and missiles with no ability to replace them. You can dig out for now. Can’t reconstitute, but we can,” he also said about Iran’s military leadership.
Brent crude is now up more than 3%, at $98 a barrel.
Intertek rebuts takeover approach after it leaks online
Jasper Jolly
FTSE 100 testing and inspections company Intertek has rejected a £7.9bn takeover bid by a Swedish private equity firm – after it was revealed on an obscure Argentine website.
Intertek on Thursday said that it rejected the £51.50 per share bid from EQT, saying it undervalued the company.
EQT was forced to announce its bid after the approach was reported on an obscure website purporting to be a radio station from a small city in Argentina to the south of Buenos Aires. The site mixes anonymous articles on business topics in both English and Spanish. The scoop was revealed in a brief, unsigned article which made no reference to its sources.
Website analysis tools linked the site to locations in Sofia, the capital of Bulgaria.
Whatever the source of the leak, EQT said on Thursday that it was “considering its options” after its cash offer was rejected. EQT has until 14 May to make a firm offer or to walk away.
EQT, which has offices in several European cities, including London, had approached Intertek on Friday. The bid was rejected on Monday and Intertek on Tuesday then announced a strategic review of the business to look at selling or demerging its energy and infrastructure business.
In a statement on Thursday afternoon, Intertek said:
“The board of Intertek carefully reviewed EQT’s proposal with its advisers and unanimously concluded that it fundamentally undervalues Intertek and its future prospects. Accordingly, the Intertek Board unanimously and unequivocally rejected the proposal on 13 April 2026.”
Shares in Intertek are up 10% today, having also jumped 12% on Tuesday.
Royal Mail staff agree deal over USO changes
Mark Sweney
Royal Mail has reached a deal with the postal workers’ union over pay and plans to reduce the number of days second class letters are delivered across the UK.
Royal Mail, which is routinely fined millions of pounds a year by the postal regulator for missing mandated delivery targets, said that the deal paves the way for improving its quality of service.
The company, which was acquired by Czech billionaire Daniel Křetínský for £3.6bn last year, was given permission by Ofcom to loosen its universal service obligations (USO) last July.
Royal Mail has been piloting the reforms, which include ending second-class post on Saturdays and reduce the service to alternating weekdays from Monday to Friday, in 35 offices.
However, the deal with the Communications Workers Union (CWU) will see the new reforms extended to another 240 delivery offices as part of a wider trial.
The aim is to complete the rollout across Royal Mail’s full 1,200 UK network by the end of the year.
Royal Mail had lobbied for years for the changes in line with dramatically declining letter volumes, from a peak of 20bn annually in 2004/5 to 6.3bn in 2024/25.
The deal also includes a pay rise and better terms for workers who joined Royal Mail on, or after, 1 December 2022.
“This agreement with the CWU paves the way for universal service reform rollout and represents a significant investment in our people,” said Alistair Cochrane, chief executive of Royal Mail, adding:
“Moving ahead with reform will make a real difference to Royal Mail’s quality of service, supporting the delivery of reliable, efficient and financially sustainable postal service for our customers across the UK.”
Last month, Royal Mail was criticised for announcing another hike in the cost of first- and second-class stamps while providing what Citizens Advice described as a “failing service”.
From 7 April, the price of a first-class stamp rose to £1.80, while the cost of the second-class service increased to 91p.
Royal Mail blamed the need for price increases on the “continued rise in the cost of delivery for every letter”.
In October, Royal Mail was fined £21m for missing its annual delivery targets for first- and second-class mail, leading to millions of letters arriving late across the UK, according to the regulator Ofcom.
The jump in jet fuel costs, and potential shortages, could hit Greece’s economy this year.
IOBE, a think tank, has cut its forecast for Greek economic growth this year to 1.8%, down from 2.2%.
In a quarterly report released on Thursday, IOBE forecast that energy prices will remain elevated for months, driving Greek consumer prices higher and affecting domestic consumption along with tourism.
Tourism receipts will largely depend on how much the war hits visitors’ incomes or makes Americans think twice before travelling abroad, IOBE added.
US industrial production fell in March
American industrial output dropped last month – an early sign that higher energy price are hurting Donald Trump’s domestic economy.
Production at US factories, mines and utility companies fell by 0.5% in March, data from the Federal Reserve shows, including a 0.1% drop in manufacturing output.
Capital Economics told clients:
The 0.1% m/m fall in manufacturing output was a touch weaker than the 0.1% gain that we and the consensus expected.
While growth in February was admittedly revised up to 0.4%, from 0.2%, that only offset a similar-sized downward revision to growth in January.
Most of the weakness in March stemmed from a 3.7% m/m fall in motor vehicles & parts manufacturing, continuing its volatile run.
Wall Street’s main indexes have opened higher on Thursday on rising hopes that the worst of the Middle East conflict may have passed.
The Dow Jones industrial average has gained 119 points, or 0.25%, to 48,582.84 points.
The S&P 500 index, which hit a record high yesterday, is up 0.15%.
Huge Nigerian refinery ‘boosts jet oil supplies to Europe
A mega-refinery owned by Africa’s richest person is becoming an increasingly important source of vital jet fuel supplies to Europe, helping fill a gap left by the impact of the Iran war while boosting profitability, Bloomberg are reporting.
Here’s the details:
Aliko Dangote’s $20 billion plant in Nigeria reached full capacity just a couple of weeks before the conflict in the Middle East created a historic oil-supply disruption. Benefiting from local crude purchases that save cost, the upheaval in the market has given the billionaire a greater advantage amid deepening concerns about fuel shortages.
The 650,000 barrel-a-day facility, one of the world’s biggest, has raised its jet fuel shipments to Europe to unprecedented levels with prices in the continent recently hitting the highest on record. It marks a major turnaround for Nigeria that for years bought fuel from Europe, and leaves Dangote with room to raise supplies further just as European refineries face the prospect of cutbacks because of expensive crude and a lack of Middle Eastern supply.
“Given that Europe is particularly reliant on jet barrels via the Strait of Hormuz, we could expect to see a larger portion of Dangote’s jet exports heading towards Europe,” said Qilin Tam, head of refining at FGE NexantECA, who estimates the plant can make as much as 150,000 barrels a day of the fuel at full tilt.
Iran war is a “major new external shock” for Africa, IMF warns
Over in Washington DC, the IMF is warning that Africa’s economic growth has been hit by the Iran war.
Abebe Aemro Selassie, director of the IMF’s African Department, is telling reporters:
Sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 with the strongest economic momentum it had seen in a decade. And then came the war.
The good news is that in 2025, economic activity accelerated across nearly all country groups, with regional growth reaching 4.5%, the fastest pace in over a decade.
Selassie points to countries such as Ethiopia and Nigeria, who he says reaped the benefits of “macroeconomic reforms, exchange rate realignments, subsidy reductions, and strengthened monetary policy frameworks.”
But now, the Fund has cut its growth forecast for 2026 to 4.3%,down from 4.6%.
Selassie says:
The war in the Middle East is a major new external shock. Oil, gas, and fertilizer prices have surged. Shipping costs have risen. Trade with Gulf partners has been disrupted. Tourism and remittances are being squeezed. Financial conditions have tightened, particularly for fuel-importing countries.
US jobless claims fall
The US jobs market appear to be holding up well in the face of the energy shock from the Middle East.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefit has fallen by 11,000 to 207,000 last week.
Here’s our news story on the IEA’s warning that Europe is running low on jet fuel:
The European Union is drafting plans to tackle a looming jet fuel supply crunch and maximise refinery output, officials have said.
From next month, the European Commission will introduce EU-wide mapping of refining capacity for oil products and introduce measures “to ensure that existing refining capacity is fully utilised and maintained”, a draft proposal seen by Reuters said.
Thomas Pugh, chief economist at audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK, says:
“Oil prices might have fallen back, but it’s refined product prices that matter for business and inflation. Jet fuel prices are still above their 2022 peaks and diesel prices aren’t far off.
“The last tanker of jet fuel to pass through the Strait of Hormuz docked in Europe on Saturday. The UK is importing more from the US, but not enough to fill the gap. With jet fuel prices close to record highs, it’s not surprising we are seeing airlines increase fuel surcharges, as well as smaller airlines cancelling routes and it won’t be long before larger ones follow suit, as they have in Asia. That’s demand destruction in action.
Jet fuel prices have already been rising sharply, hitting airlines’ profitability.
The budget airline easyJet warned this morning that the impact of the Iran war on bookings and oil prices will hit its profits, having driven up fuel costs by £25m in the last month alone.
It said it expected to report an increased pre-tax loss of £540-£560m for the six months to March, up from £394m in the first half of 2024-25. The carrier typically makes its money in the second half of the year which includes the peak summer period.
The airline said it remained confident in its fuel supply. While it has hedged 70% of its needs for the rest of the financial year to September, it said that each $100 (£74) movement in the spot price jet of fuel per metric tonne was adding £40m in costs for its unhedged supply – and currently the price is about $800 higher than before the conflict started.
More here:
Europe has ‘maybe 6 weeks of jet fuel left,’ energy agency head warns
The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that Europe has about six weeks of jet fuel left.
In an interview with Associated Press published today, IEA executive director Fatih Birol warned that flight cancellations could begin “soon” if oil supplies remain blocked by the Iran war.
Birol said Europe has “maybe 6 weeks or so (of) jet fuel left,” after the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz led to “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced.”
He told AP that the impact will be “higher petrol (gasoline) prices, higher gas prices, high electricity prices,” adding that some parts of the world will be hit worse than others.
“The front line is the Asian countries” that rely on energy from the Middle East, he said, naming Japan, Korea, India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh, adding:
“Then it will come to Europe and the Americas.”
And if the strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened, Birol said that for Europe:
“I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel.”
The US is currently blockading Iranian ports, whiel Tehran has laid mines in the vital waterway to restrict traffic through the strait.
Yesterday, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that the disruption from the Middle East conflict would continue even after the war stops, explaining:
“We need to recognise disruptions are not going to evaporate overnight even if the war ends tomorrow. Why? Because a tanker is a slow-moving vessel. It would take 40 days to get all the way to Fiji.”
Aluminium hits four-year high on Middle East supply worries
Ouch! Aluminium prices have hit a four-year high today, adding to the inflationary pressures on companies.
Benchmark three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange rose as high as $3,672 a metric ton this morning, its highest level since March 24, 2022.
Reuters reports that the global aluminium market is facing a supply deficit this year due to the Iran war.
One Gulf producer warned earlier this month that fully restoring production at one of its UAE smelters hit by an Iranian attack in late March could take up to a year.
The Middle East accounts for about 9% of global production of aluminium, and Chinese aluminium exports are expected to rise as buyers look for other sources of the metal.
Eurozone inflation revised up to 2.6% in March
Over in the eurozone, inflation was faster than initially reported in March,as the Iran war drove up costs.
Statistics body Eurostat has calculated that consumer prices rose by 2.6% in the year to March across the single currency block, up from an initial estimate of 2.5%.
It says:
The lowest annual rates were registered in Denmark (1.0%), Czechia, Cyprus and Sweden (all 1.5%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (9.0%), Croatia (4.6%) and Lithuania (4.4%). Compared with February 2026, annual inflation fell in three Member States, remained stable in one and rose in twenty-three.
Energy prices were 5.1% higher than a year ago, while services inflation came in at 3.2%, and unprocessed food inflation was 4.2%.
UK GDP: More expert reaction
Today’s GDP report suggsts the UK economy began to turn a corner after the Autumn Statement and before the latest developments in the Middle East, says Barret Kupelian, chief economist at PwC:
The UK economy looked to be finding its feet, but geopolitics may yet kick the chair away. Output grew by 0.5% in the three months to February, with both production and services expanding together.
More importantly, this was growth powered by the private sector rather than the public sector-dominated parts of the economy that had propped up much of the post-2023 picture. That suggested the recovery was becoming broader and more durable.
But the question now is whether that recovery can withstand the fresh external shock from the Middle East.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst uk at investing and trading platform IG, says Rachel Reeves and Kier Starmer need to be careful about doing a victory lap:
A look back at last year shows that April 2025 was also good, but then things took a decidedly poor turn. Companies across the UK are warning about the outlook for earnings and consumer spending, and with energy costs hitting consumers hard, today’s good news could turn to dust all too quickly.”
Andrew Wishart, senior UK economist at Berenberg, warns that the Iran war will snuff out the UK’s early 2026 momentum, adding:
Even before the war, we doubted that the economy could enjoy a sustained acceleration. Flat employment, decelerating pay growth and a rising personal tax burden were set to reduce real household spending power.
Now we can add higher energy prices and mortgage interest rates to the list of headwinds. Businesses, meanwhile, face another input cost shock just as they were overcoming the last one (minimum wage and payroll tax hikes). Amid limited pricing power, the squeeze on profitability will probably weigh on output and employment as much as it generates cost-push inflation.
Pre-war, a slowdown in inflation to an acceptable pace should have provided a silver lining to our below-consensus 2026 growth forecast. The new energy price shock means the UK must now endure both weaker growth and higher inflation, postponing bank rate cuts but not derailing them.
